BMIE Market 02874

Washington County, Rhode Island · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,379 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±773 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,259 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±302 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,860 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,366 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$159,861 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,118 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,774 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,605 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$713,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±68,717 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	15.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02874
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 2–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.22) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	11 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02874. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.22, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Rhode Island and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 71, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.1	77	40%	+30.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.5	60	35%	+20.8
Market Momentum Score	11.0	11	25%	+2.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,379	64	40%	+25.7
Median household income (ACS)	159,861	97	40%	+38.8
Households (ACS)	2,259	63	20%	+12.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	35%	+4.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.7	93	25%	+23.2
Population (ACS)	6,379	64	20%	+12.8
Median household income (ACS)	159,861	97	20%	+19.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 11 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-50	4	50%	+2.0
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	30%	+3.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (13)

By cuisine

American 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Caribbean 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Casual dining 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Beat View	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	7434 Wall Triana Hwy	open
Beth's House	Bar		Boston Neck Rd	open
Boston Neck Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1814 Boston Neck Rd	open
Buddy's Hot Rod Dogs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	48 Riptide Dr	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	3045 Tower Hill Rd	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	1820 Boston Neck Rd Hess	open
Ethan's Veggie Stand	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		1065 Shermantown Rd	open
Fully Rooted Cold-Pressed Juice	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2325 Boston Neck Rd	open
Locanda RI	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	3009 Tower Hill Rd	open
Plum Pt. Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Italian	1814 Boston Neck Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	3045 Tower Hill Rd Unit 4	open
The Fresh Monkee - Saunderstown The Fresh Monkee - Mansfield, CT	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	3045 Tower Hill Rd	open
Wickford Alewerks	Bar · Brewery / taproom		495 Gilbert Stuart Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	2	2	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	3	2	2	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	6	5	3	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	5	3	2	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	4	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	3	2	2	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	2	1	1	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	4	4	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	5	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	5	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02874. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02881	3.3 mi	11	2023
02835	5.0 mi	9	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.