BMIE Market 02896

Providence County, Rhode Island · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,583 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±496 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,587 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±313 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,537 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,798 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$108,983 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,497 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,270 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±518 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$457,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,754 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	23.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02896
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-5.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-5.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+433.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 12–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.38) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	26 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02896. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.38, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Rhode Island and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 71, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.2	78	40%	+31.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.3	53	35%	+18.7
Market Momentum Score	25.5	26	25%	+6.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,583	73	40%	+29.2
Median household income (ACS)	108,983	86	40%	+34.5
Households (ACS)	4,587	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-5.9	21	35%	+7.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.8	57	25%	+14.3
Population (ACS)	11,583	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	108,983	86	20%	+17.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 26 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-5.9	22	50%	+11.0
10-year restaurant growth	-5.9	21	30%	+6.2
20-year restaurant growth	14.3	42	20%	+8.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (36)

By cuisine

American 11 · Pizza 5 · Asian 4 · Coffee 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Breakfast 2 · Japanese 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Thai 2 · BBQ 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Quick service 11 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 6 · Bakery 5 · Dessert 5 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
barbecue buddies	Catering	BBQ	957 Old Smithfield Rd	open
Beef Barn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Steakhouse	1 Greenville Rd	open
Beef Barn	Specialty food shop · Café · Quick service · Dessert	Sandwiches · Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · American	200 Industrial Dr	open
Bob & Timmy's Grilled Pizza Jr.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	621 Pound Hill Rd	open
Brady's Pub	Bar	American	88 E Old Greenville Rd	open
Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings	Bar · Casual dining	American	51 Dowling Village Blvd.	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	66 Eddie Dowling Hwy	open
Coffee & Cream	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	900 Victory Hwy	open
Denny's	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · Coffee · American	44 Dowling Village Blvd	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	900 Victory Hwy	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		120 Eddie Dowling Hwy	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	120 Eddie Dowling Hwy Wal-Mart	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	941 Victory Hwy	open
Firehouse Pizza Shop II	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	639 Great Rd	open
Gators Pub	Bar	American	1402 Victory Hwy	open
Gusto Pizzeria & Spaghetteria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7 N Main St	open
Jonathan Branchaud Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		900 Victory Hwy	open
Kung Fu Kitchen Asian Bistro&Sushi Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	44 Dowling Village Blvd	open
Lincoln Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2214 Providence Pike	open
Lotus Fine Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	175 Eddie Dowling Hwy	open
Lower Level Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		175 Eddie Dowling Hwy	open
Lucky Dog Tavern	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		82 School St	open
Lumberjack's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1402 Victory Hwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	12 Eddie Dowling Hwy	open
Nabisco Inc	Bakery	Bakery	70 Industrial Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	99 Eddie Dowling Hwy	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	900 Victory Hwy	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2 Dowling Village Blvd.	open
Tavern 6 two 1	Bar · Casual dining	American	621 Pound Hill Rd	open
Texas Roadhouse Texas Roadhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	39 Dowling Village Blvd	open
Thai Spicy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Noodles / ramen / pho · Asian	175 Eddie Dowling Hwy	open
The Wright Scoop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	200 Woonsocket Hill Rd	open
Two Papas Biscotti Company	Bakery	Bakery	900 Victory Hwy	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	7 Dowling Village Blvd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	77 Eddie Dowling Hwy	open
Yama Fuji	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	900 Victory Hwy #3	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	13	13	7	4	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	14	13	8	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	12	12	8	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	15	13	8	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	14	13	8	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	15	14	8	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	14	13	8	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	15	14	8	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	13	12	7	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	15	13	5	7	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	14	12	3	8	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	14	13	4	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	4	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	15	14	6	7	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	17	16	8	8	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	19	17	8	9	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	18	16	7	9	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	20	18	8	9	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	19	17	7	9	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	20	18	9	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	19	17	8	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	15	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	20	14	6	6	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	21	15	7	6	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	22	15	6	7	—	3	NAICS2022
2023	21	16	5	9	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02896. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02824	1.9 mi	3	2022
02876	2.6 mi	3	2023
02895	2.9 mi	75	2023
02838	3.4 mi	4	2023
01504	4.5 mi	9	2023
01529	4.6 mi	1	2016
02802	4.8 mi	3	2016
02917	4.9 mi	50	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.