BMIE Market 01504

Worcester County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,255 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,904 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±260 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,026 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,628 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$94,191 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,141 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,189 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±85 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$404,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±34,320 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	11.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01504
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-35.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 6–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.45) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	21 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01504. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.45, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.8	73	40%	+29.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50.7	51	35%	+17.7
Market Momentum Score	20.9	21	25%	+5.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,255	70	40%	+27.9
Median household income (ACS)	94,191	77	40%	+30.8
Households (ACS)	3,904	71	20%	+14.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-35.7	9	35%	+3.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.7	73	25%	+18.3
Population (ACS)	9,255	70	20%	+13.9
Median household income (ACS)	94,191	77	20%	+15.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 21 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-25	11	50%	+5.4
10-year restaurant growth	-35.7	9	30%	+2.6
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Dessert 4 · Bar 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Quick service 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bettys	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	3 Main St	open
Black Sheep Creamery	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	97 Main St	open
BMR High School	Bar	British / Irish pub food		open
Casa Burrito Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	114 Main St b	open
Crave Mead LLC	Winery / distillery / taproom		7 Main St Ste 1	open
Dunkin Donuts Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Dessert · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	2 Main St	open
Goodstuff Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	97 Main St	open
Hunan Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3 Main St C	open
Ideal Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2 Main St	open
Millerville Men's Club Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8 Lloyd St	open
Roast House Pub and Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	3 Farm St	open
Sandy's Chill Spot	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	97 Main St	open
Stewart's Diner	Casual dining	American	148 Main St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	4 Main St	open
TKO Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	63 Main St	open
Walkers Pub	Bar		88 Canal St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	3	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	7	3	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	8	4	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	11	7	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	14	9	4	3	2	3	NAICS1997
1999	10	5	1	2	2	3	NAICS1997
2000	13	9	2	4	3	3	NAICS1997
2001	13	9	2	5	2	3	NAICS1997
2002	10	6	2	2	2	3	NAICS1997
2003	10	6	2	2	2	3	NAICS2002
2004	10	6	2	2	2	3	NAICS2002
2005	11	6	2	3	1	3	NAICS2002
2006	11	7	2	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	13	10	3	5	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	14	10	3	5	2	3	NAICS2007
2009	13	11	3	5	3	2	NAICS2007
2010	14	11	4	5	2	3	NAICS2007
2011	14	12	6	4	2	2	NAICS2007
2012	14	12	6	4	2	2	NAICS2012
2013	16	14	6	4	4	2	NAICS2012
2014	15	12	5	3	4	2	NAICS2012
2015	14	12	4	4	4	2	NAICS2012
2016	15	12	3	5	4	2	NAICS2012
2017	14	13	5	4	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	12	5	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	12	5	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	13	6	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	12	6	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	11	7	—	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	9	5	—	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01504. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
01529	2.4 mi	1	2016
02895	3.1 mi	75	2023
02824	3.2 mi	3	2022
01756	3.8 mi	17	2023
02019	3.9 mi	45	2023
02876	4.0 mi	3	2023
02896	4.5 mi	16	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.