BMIE Market 03862

Rockingham County, New Hampshire · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,610 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±63 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,977 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±179 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,278 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,909 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$144,583 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,308 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,798 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±84 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$670,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±61,006 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	13.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 03862
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	39.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-5.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+6.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+33.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 13–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.08) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	24 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 03862. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.08, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Hampshire and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 183, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.0	74	40%	+29.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41.2	41	35%	+14.4
Market Momentum Score	23.8	24	25%	+6.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,610	59	40%	+23.6
Median household income (ACS)	144,583	95	40%	+38.2
Households (ACS)	1,977	61	20%	+12.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	35%	+6.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	34.7	16	25%	+4.1
Population (ACS)	4,610	59	20%	+11.8
Median household income (ACS)	144,583	95	20%	+19.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 24 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-5.9	22	50%	+11.0
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	30%	+5.3
20-year restaurant growth	6.7	38	20%	+7.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 5 · Breakfast 4 · Seafood 3 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Bar 5 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Quick service 2 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
180 Restaurant And Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	180 Lafayette Rd	open
Abercrombie & Finch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	219 Lafayette Rd	open
Al's Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	51 Lafayette Rd	open
Betty's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	164 Lafayette Rd	open
Body Barre Fitness	Restaurant (service type not stated)		44 Lafayette Rd Unit 3	open
Donut Love	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	112 Lafayette Rd Unit C	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	42 Lafayette Rd	open
Granite State Growler Tours	Brewery / taproom		45 Lafayette Rd #212	open
Locals Restaurant & Pub	Bar · Casual dining		215 Lafayette Rd	open
Los Cantaros	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	43 Lafayette Rd	open
M&Y Brick Oven Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	62 Lafayette Rd	open
Mad Pork	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	122 Lafayette Rd	open
Nancy's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	Lafayette Rd	open
Prost	Bar		44 Lafayette Rd	open
Rize Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	122 Lafayette Rd	open
Ronaldo's Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Seafood	69 Lafayette Rd	open
Sea Hagg Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		135 Lafayette Rd Unit 9	open
Seacoast Cigar Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		215 Lafayette Rd	open
Seacoast Soups	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	122 Lafayette Rd	open
Smoking 3 Lil Pigs BBQ LLC	Food truck		Somersworth nh	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	7A Lafayette Rd	open
The Airfield Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	9A Lafayette Rd	open
The Barley House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	43 Lafayette Rd	open
The Beach Plum The Beach Plum	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Seafood · Ice cream / frozen desserts	16 Ocean Blvd	open
The Copper Lantern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	54 Lafayette Rd	open
The Freight House	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Breakfast · Coffee	225 Atlantic Ave	open
The Juice Box	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	77 Lafayette Rd	open
The Red Door Inn	Bar		1 Park Cir	open
Throwback Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		121 Lafayette Rd	open
Urban Farmhouse Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	184 Lafayette Road	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	19	19	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	24	23	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	21	20	10	8	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	17	17	9	6	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	18	18	11	6	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	14	14	9	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	14	14	9	3	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	15	15	9	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	16	16	10	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	18	17	11	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	19	18	10	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	20	20	12	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	19	19	11	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	16	15	8	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	18	17	9	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	21	20	10	7	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	19	18	10	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	18	18	10	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	15	8	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	16	16	8	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	16	16	8	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	16	8	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	17	9	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	18	10	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	15	9	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	16	10	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	15	8	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	16	10	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 03862. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
03871	2.6 mi	1	2016
03842	2.8 mi	79	2023
03840	4.2 mi	9	2023
03885	4.4 mi	12	2023
03870	4.4 mi	11	2023
03844	4.8 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.