BMIE Market 03870

Rockingham County, New Hampshire · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,188 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±229 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,126 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±161 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,162 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,790 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$140,938 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±44,974 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	54.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,790 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±211 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$990,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±74,615 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	12.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 03870
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+120.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+10.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 13–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.78) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	59 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 03870. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.78, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New Hampshire and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 183, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.8	75	40%	+29.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72.9	73	35%	+25.5
Market Momentum Score	58.7	59	25%	+14.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,188	61	40%	+24.4
Median household income (ACS)	140,938	95	40%	+38.0
Households (ACS)	2,126	62	20%	+12.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	120	95	35%	+33.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	21.2	34	25%	+8.6
Population (ACS)	5,188	61	20%	+12.2
Median household income (ACS)	140,938	95	20%	+19.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	120	95	30%	+28.4
20-year restaurant growth	22.2	47	20%	+9.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

American 9 · Seafood 7 · Coffee 6 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Dessert 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Bar 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 2 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Angelina's Authentic Italian	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	150 Lafayette Rd	open
Atlantic Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	5 Pioneer Rd	open
Birch Tree Hospitality Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		150 Lafayette Rd	open
Carriage House Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2263 Ocean Blvd	open
Common Roots	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	2203 Ocean Blvd	open
Dancehowyoufeel, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2263 Ocean Blvd	open
Kooks Cafe & Beach Bar	Café · Casual dining · Bar	Coffee	1191 Ocean Blvd	open
La Mulita Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Latin American (other)	15 Sagamore Rd	open
Lago's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	71 Lafayette Rd	open
Lazy Jacks Clam Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1100 Old Ocean Blvd	open
Llano & Rye Barbecue	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	15 Sagamore Rd	open
Native Coffee + Kitchen	Coffee shop	Coffee	25 Sagamore Rd	open
PARKD	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	25 Sagamore Rd	open
Petey's Red Roof Market Enterprises Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1323 Ocean Blvd	open
Petey's Summertime Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	1323 Ocean Blvd	open
Peteys Seafood, Rye, New Hampshire	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American		open
Pizza Lidos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1215 Ocean Blvd	open
Ray's Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	1677 Ocean Blvd	open
Rgs Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2203 Ocean Blvd	open
Rye Harbor Lobster Pound	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	1870 Ocean Blvd	open
Rye Harbor-DPH	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1870 Ocean Blvd	open
Serenity Market & Cafe	Café	Coffee	25 Sagamore Rd	open
SouthPort Kitchen + Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	150 Lafayette Rd	open
Surfside Hotdog Shoppe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1191 Ocean Blvd	open
The Hungry Lobster: 919 Washington Rd Rye NH	Other	Sandwiches	919 Washington Rd	open
The Ice House	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Ice cream / frozen desserts	112 Wentworth Rd	open
The Office Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)		150 Lafayette Rd	open
The Sandpiper Cafe	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2281 Ocean Blvd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	13	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	14	14	7	5	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	13	12	7	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	12	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	11	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	10	10	5	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	10	4	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	7	4	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	7	6	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	7	5	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	9	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	11	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	11	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	10	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	11	6	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	11	7	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 03870. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
03871	2.8 mi	1	2016
03854	3.7 mi	1	2016
03862	4.4 mi	16	2023
03801	4.4 mi	168	2023
03840	4.5 mi	9	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.