BMIE Market 03903

York County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,146 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±39 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,040 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±169 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,211 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,671 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$101,522 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,660 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,948 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±471 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$498,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±61,594 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	19.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 03903
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 2–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.06) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	47 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 03903. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.06, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.5	72	40%	+29.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.9	55	35%	+19.2
Market Momentum Score	46.6	47	25%	+11.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,146	66	40%	+26.3
Median household income (ACS)	101,522	82	40%	+32.7
Households (ACS)	3,040	67	20%	+13.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	35%	+5.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.4	79	25%	+19.7
Population (ACS)	7,146	66	20%	+13.2
Median household income (ACS)	101,522	82	20%	+16.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	20	77	50%	+38.7
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	30%	+4.9
20-year restaurant growth	-14.3	15	20%	+3.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · American 1 · Breakfast 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Bakery 3 · Bar 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Quick service 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Delivery-focused 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A&B’s Breakfast and Brunch Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	28 Levesque Dr	open
Blue Mermaid Island Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		105 Houde Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	151 Harold L Dow Hwy	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Restaurant (service type not stated)		64 Harold L Dow Hwy	open
East Mountain Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		28 Levesque Dr	open
Food Truck Central	Food truck		150 Dow Hwy	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service		28 Levesque Dr Ste 12	open
Maryanns Kitchen	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	866 Goodwin Rd	open
Muddy River Marketplace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	987 Harold L Dow Hwy	open
Sabina's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Pizza · Italian	28 Levesque Dr	open
Shipyard Brew Pub Eliot	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		28 Levesque Dr	open
Shoreys Brook Farm Stand	Food truck		890 Goodwin Rd	open
Sip Maine	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	28 Levesque Dr	open
Sk Food Shops Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		28 Levesque Dr Ste 3	open
Takeout Guys, LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)		240 Jennie Ln	open
The 207 Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		811 Dow Hwy	open
White Heron	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	43 Harold L Dow Hwy	open
Wild Flour	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	103 Moses Gerrish Farmer Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	7	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	6	2	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	6	5	2	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	5	1	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	8	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	8	1	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	8	2	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	7	1	4	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	6	1	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	1	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	6	1	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	7	2	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	8	2	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	8	3	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	7	2	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	7	2	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	5	5	1	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	6	1	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	6	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	6	—	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	6	—	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	6	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	6	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 03903. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
03904	3.3 mi	43	2023
03909	5.0 mi	32	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.