BMIE Market 04856

Knox County, Maine · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,675 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,498 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±159 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,330 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,956 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$86,979 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,032 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,194 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±667 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$469,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±49,748 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	21.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 04856
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	45.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+7.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+7.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+150.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 12–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	50 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 04856. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maine and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 301, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.6	62	40%	+24.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40.7	41	35%	+14.2
Market Momentum Score	50.2	50	25%	+12.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,675	56	40%	+22.2
Median household income (ACS)	86,979	70	40%	+28.1
Households (ACS)	1,498	56	20%	+11.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	40.8	13	25%	+3.3
Population (ACS)	3,675	56	20%	+11.1
Median household income (ACS)	86,979	70	20%	+14.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	7.1	64	50%	+32.0
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	7.1	38	20%	+7.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (37)

By cuisine

Coffee 7 · American 5 · Breakfast 3 · Asian 2 · Dessert 2 · European 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Seafood 2 · Thai 2 · Bakery 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 23 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Bar 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Food truck 3 · Bakery 2 · Quick service 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
18 Central Oyster Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	18 Central St	open
207 EATS Food Truck	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Food truck		34 Commercial St	open
3 Dogs Cafe	Café	Coffee	309 Marshall Street	open
47 West	Café	Coffee	47 West St	open
69 West Food Truck	Food truck		495 Commercial St	open
American Flatbread	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	399 Commercial St	open
Atrium Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	20 Central St	open
Blue Sky Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5 Country Way	open
Blue Spoon	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5 Country Inn Way	open
Cappy's Chowder House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Main St	open
Cellardoor Winery at the Villa	Winery / distillery / taproom		47 West St	open
Cody's Original Roadhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	399 Commercial St	open
Denny's	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · Coffee · American	1075 Commercial St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	849 Commercial St	open
Foglifters	Café	Coffee	13 Pascal Ave	open
Freya's	Dessert	Breakfast · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	7 Main St	open
Glover Co.	Bar		17 Rockville St	open
JJ's Snack Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1033 commercial st.	open
La Bella Vita - Samoset Resort	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	220 Warrenton St	open
Namaste Indian Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	930 Commercial St	open
Nina June	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · European	24 Central St	open
Oak Room	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	20 Central St	open
Ports of Italy, Rockport	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	141 Commercial St	open
Rayr	Bar · Specialty food shop		67 Pascal Ave	open
Rock City Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop	Coffee	16 Rockport Park Ctr	open
Rockport Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	420 West St	open
Seafolk Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	22 Central St	open
Shepherd's Pie	Casual dining · Bar		18 Central St	open
Spice Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	148 West St	open
Sub Somboon Street Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	1084 Commercial St	open
Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Chicken / wings	1096 Commercial St	open
Team Prior, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		731 Commercial St Ste 3	open
Teddy's Ice Cream	Food truck · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	732 Commercial Street	open
Tomi Sushi And Noodle Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Thai · Sushi	106 Commercial St	open
Village Soup Food Truck	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	495 Commercial St	open
Vinta Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		106 Commercial St	open
Willow Bake Shoppe	Bakery	Bakery	1084 Commercial St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	13	12	9	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	13	12	8	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	16	15	11	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	16	15	10	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	16	15	10	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	15	14	9	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	16	15	10	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	14	14	9	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	15	15	11	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	18	16	11	3	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	18	16	10	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	17	15	9	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	13	12	8	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	14	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	15	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	16	16	8	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	14	9	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	13	8	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	14	8	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	13	7	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	14	8	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	15	10	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	16	9	4	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	15	9	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 04856. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
04841	3.3 mi	36	2023
04843	4.9 mi	27	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.