BMIE Market 06471

New Haven County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,140 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±531 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,881 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±268 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,720 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,207 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$109,388 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,507 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,980 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±568 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$371,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,350 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	8.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06471
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	23.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+11.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-4.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+81.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+122.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 13–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.17) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	56 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06471. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.17, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.1	74	40%	+29.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43.4	43	35%	+15.2
Market Momentum Score	56.3	56	25%	+14.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,140	66	40%	+26.3
Median household income (ACS)	109,388	86	40%	+34.5
Households (ACS)	2,881	66	20%	+13.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-4.8	21	35%	+7.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	28.0	22	25%	+5.6
Population (ACS)	7,140	66	20%	+13.2
Median household income (ACS)	109,388	86	20%	+17.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	11.1	69	50%	+34.5
10-year restaurant growth	-4.8	21	30%	+6.3
20-year restaurant growth	81.8	78	20%	+15.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (36)

By cuisine

Pizza 7 · American 6 · Italian 6 · Dessert 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Bakery 4 · Asian 3 · Coffee 3 · Chinese 2 · Seafood 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Quick service 6 · Bakery 5 · Bar 5 · Dessert 5 · Casual dining 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Catering 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Abate of North Branford	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	285 Foxon Rd	open
Anthony John's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	5 Foxon Rd	open
Bar Eighty	Bar		203 Foxon Rd	open
Bella Lisa Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2429 Foxon Rd	open
Bobby's Apizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1179 Foxon Rd	open
Capone's Pizza Bar Rt.80	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2400 Foxon Rd	open
Central Cafe - A Neighborhood Bar	Bar		280 Branford Rd	open
Central Pizza Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1635 Foxon Rd	open
Crafts & Crumbs	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	46 Marjorie Dr	open
Dairy Queen (Treat) Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	280 Branford Rd	open
Dalton's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · American	2429 Foxon Rd	open
Doody's Totoket Inn	Casual dining · Bar	American	465 Foxon Rd	open
Downer's	Bar		229 Branford Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	1199 Foxon Rd	open
Good Vibes Nutrition, LLC.	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	1715 Foxon Rd	open
Great Wall Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	280 Branford Rd	open
Hidden Kitchen Route 80	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	2341 Foxon Rd	open
J Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	2031 Foxon Rd Ste 3	open
JCakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5 Foxon Rd	open
Joey Cal's Deli & Catering	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	271 Foxon Rd	open
Jumbo Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2341 Foxon Rd	open
Kat-Su Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	280 Branford Rd	open
Leoni's Italian Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Italian · Sandwiches	1719 Foxon Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	280 Branford Road	open
Nataz Nataz Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	1977-2049 Foxon Rd	open
Pasquale's Apizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	280 Branford Rd	open
Pastry Fusions LLC	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	999 Foxon Rd	open
Poppy's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	280 Branford Rd	open
Rally Caps Sports Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining		203 Foxon Rd	open
Rally Caps Sports Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		203 Foxon Rd	open
Rose Vineyards and Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		2 Valley Rd	open
RV's Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	2341 Foxon Rd	open
Sandy's Deli & Pizza &pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	2023 Foxon Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	2429 Foxon Rd # 2431	open
Supreme Seafood Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	999 Foxon Rd	open
Taco Palace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	5 Foxon Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	15	11	5	4	2	3	NAICS1997
1999	9	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	10	4	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	10	4	4	2	—	NAICS1997
2002	11	11	4	5	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	11	11	4	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	12	4	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2005	14	14	5	7	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	15	15	6	7	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	15	15	5	7	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	15	15	6	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	15	15	6	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	18	18	9	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	18	18	8	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	18	18	7	9	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	21	21	8	10	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	20	20	8	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	20	20	7	10	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	19	19	6	11	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	18	17	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	19	18	7	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	17	6	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	20	18	5	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	20	19	6	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	18	6	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	21	20	8	10	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06471. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06405	3.8 mi	74	2023
06437	3.9 mi	40	2023
06472	4.1 mi	11	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.