BMIE Market 06482

Fairfield County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±913 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,142 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±341 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,557 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,190 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$159,828 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,376 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,835 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±340 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$499,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,630 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	20.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06482
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+57.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+22.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 8–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.12) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	82 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	45 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06482. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.12, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	82.5	82	40%	+33.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.2	65	35%	+22.8
Market Momentum Score	45.3	45	25%	+11.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,000	73	40%	+29.4
Median household income (ACS)	159,828	97	40%	+38.8
Households (ACS)	4,142	72	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.2	75	25%	+18.9
Population (ACS)	12,000	73	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	159,828	97	20%	+19.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	57.1	70	20%	+13.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (29)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 5 · Italian 4 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 3 · Breakfast 3 · Dessert 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Bar 5 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Quick service 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aquila's Nest Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		56 Pole Bridge Rd	open
Capo Di Tutti Capi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1 Harvest Common Rd	open
Castle Hill Chocolate, llc	Dessert	Dessert	6 Glen Rd	open
Cover Two Sports Cafe	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		100 Church Hill Rd	open
Demitasse	Coffee shop	Coffee	3 Glen Rd	open
Dolce Italian Ice & Gelato	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	117 Church Hill Rd	open
Figs Wood Fired Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)		105 Church Hill Rd	open
Foundry Kitchen And Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1 Glen Rd	open
Gino's Parlor of Sandy Hook	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	102 Church Hill Rd	open
HillTop Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4 Riverside Rd	open
Lake Zoar Sand Bar	Bar	Breakfast		open
Lorenzo's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	229 Riverside Rd	open
Mangia Mi East	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	24 Glen Rd	open
Misty Vale Deli and General Store	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	51 Berkshire Rd	open
Nouveau Monde	Bar	American	6 Washington St	open
Project Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	75 Church Hill Rd	open
Ralph's Sandy Hook Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	3 Glen Rd	open
Sami's Sweet Shoppe	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	11 Johnson Dr	open
Sandy Hook Cafe	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	3 Glen Rd	open
Sandy Hook Deli & Catering	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	102 Church Hill Rd	open
Sandy Hook Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	98 Church Hill Rd	open
Silver Bridge Cottage Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	7 Bridge End Farm Ln	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	117 Church Hill Rd # B	open
tacobarn Sandy Hook	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	6 Glen Rd	open
The Daily Rise Bakery & Cafe	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee · Breakfast	105 Church Hill Rd	open
The Dog Haus	Bar · Quick service		2 King Phillip Trail	open
The Hook Restaurant & Bar	Bar		75 Glen Rd	open
The Villa Restaurant & Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	4 Riverside Rd	open
Village Perk	Coffee shop	Coffee	3 Glen Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	7	7	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	9	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	10	9	9	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	11	9	8	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	12	8	5	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	11	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	11	8	5	2	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	13	10	5	3	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	12	10	6	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	12	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	15	14	9	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	10	8	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	10	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	9	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	11	9	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	9	8	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	11	9	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06482. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06470	4.0 mi	49	2023
06488	4.7 mi	36	2023
06468	4.9 mi	49	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.