BMIE Market 06488

New Haven County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	20,071 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,424 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±355 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	19,904 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,091 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$112,887 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,440 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	54.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,935 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±277 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$411,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,997 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	39.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	36 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06488
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-2.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+80.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	43 (range 39–47) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.63) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	39 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06488. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.63, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	84.2	84	40%	+33.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64.3	64	35%	+22.5
Market Momentum Score	39.4	39	25%	+9.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	20,071	81	40%	+32.6
Median household income (ACS)	112,887	88	40%	+35.1
Households (ACS)	8,424	82	20%	+16.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	35%	+19.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.9	43	25%	+10.7
Population (ACS)	20,071	81	20%	+16.3
Median household income (ACS)	112,887	88	20%	+17.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-2.7	25	50%	+12.3
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	30%	+16.9
20-year restaurant growth	28.6	51	20%	+10.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (74)

By cuisine

American 12 · Coffee 12 · Italian 9 · Pizza 9 · Sandwiches 9 · Dessert 8 · Bakery 7 · Asian 5 · Breakfast 5 · Healthy / salads / bowls 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Burgers 3 · Mexican 3 · Japanese 2 · Sushi 2 · European 1 · Greek 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Indian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 42 · Quick service 13 · Dessert 12 · Bar 11 · Bakery 10 · Café 8 · Casual dining 8 · Coffee shop 7 · Specialty food shop 7 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Fast casual 3 · Other 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Action Sports Unlimited	Bar		9 Independence Cir	open
AM Coffee & Co.	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	220 Main St S	open
Arrowhead Restaurant	Bar	American	1284 Strongtown Rd	open
Bask Bakeshop LLC	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	250 Main St S	open
Bilella Gluten Free Products	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	1266 Main St S Ste 4	open
Boost Bowls Boost Bowls	Juice, smoothie, tea · Fast casual	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	690 Main St S	open
Brightside Nutrition	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	220 Main St S	open
Brunch House 1850	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	137 E Hill Rd	open
Bruno's Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	800 Main St S	open
Bubbakoo's Burritos Bubbakoo's Burritos	Quick service		775 Main St S	open
Burgers and Burritos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Mexican	760A Main St S	open
Chip's Family	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	775 Main St S	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	100 Main St N	open
Clubhouse at Historic Sthbry Hmwne	Bar		4 Traditions Blvd	open
Denmo’s Famous	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	340 Main St S	open
DiPalma's New York Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	Union Savings Bank, 406 Main St S	open
Dubl Twister	Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee	385 Main St S	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	1450 Southford Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	999 Main St S	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	77 Main St N # 108 Playhouse Corner	open
Friendly's	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Burgers	519 Heritage Road, Heritage Village	open
Fulton House	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	Roxbury Road	open
Ginger Cafe Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		730 Main St S	open
Golden-harper Restaurant Group Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		574 Heritage Rd	open
Heritage Deli & Cafe	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	775 Main St S	open
Heritage Deli & Cafe	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Café	Sandwiches · Coffee	466 Heritage Rd	open
Hometown Pizza of Southbury	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	316C Main St S	open
Hudson's Cafe & Bistro	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	466 Heritage Rd	open
Hummus & Falafel	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	466 Heritage Rd	open
J and J Country Tavern	Bar	European · American	418 Heritage Vlg	open
J&J Country Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	137 E Hill Rd	open
Jordan's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · American	900 Main St S	open
Julio's Wood Fired Pizza & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Italian · Pizza	220 Main St S	open
KRU Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	385 Main St S	open
Laurel Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	544 Main St S	open
Leo's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	7 Poverty Rd	open
Leos Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Indian	59 Pleasant Dr	open
Lucas Local	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	775 Main St S Ste 170	open
Maggie McFly's Maggie McFly's Local Craft Eatery & Bar	Casual dining · Bar	American	971 Main St S	open
Maggies Management Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		574 Heritage Rd Ste 202	open
Main Street Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	56 Main St S	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	100 Main St North	open
Mercato Italian Kitchen & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza · Italian	690 Main St S	open
Mia Sophia	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other · Dessert	Pizza · Ice cream / frozen desserts	316 Main St S	open
Mikee's Place	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	220 Main St S #1	open
Minami Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	519 Heritage Rd	open
Miranda's Pizza & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	1056 Main St S	open
Mission Salad	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Mediterranean · Healthy / salads / bowls	775 Main St S	open
Monty’s Downtown	Restaurant (service type not stated)		775 Main St S	open
Nardelli's Grinder Shoppe Nardelli's Grinder Shoppe	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	385 Main St S	open
Old Country Store Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	667 S Britain Rd	open
Oriental Gourmet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Sushi · Japanese	100 Main St N	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	100 Main Street North	open
Patty's Pantry	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	1224 Strongtown Rd	open
Puglia Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	284 Main St S	open
Rathskeller Restaurant & Bar	Casual dining · Bar		88 Main St S	open
Sake Asian Fusion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	730 Main St S	open
Samui Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	385 Main St S	open
Scoopin' Ice Cream Shop	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts		open
Señor Pancho's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	385 Main St S	open
Shadrach's Revolutionary Taproom	Restaurant (service type not stated)		522 Heritage Rd	open
Sonny's Grinders	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Noodles / ramen / pho	760 Main St S	open
Southbury Baking Company	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	250 Main St S	open
Southbury Sweets	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Bakery · Juice / smoothies · Dessert	105 Luna Trl Ext	open
Southford Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1481 Southford Rd #8	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	775 South Main Street Southbury Green	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	14 Oak Tree Rd Unit 14	open
The Bakery of Southbury	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery · Dessert	Breakfast · Dessert · Bakery	77 Main St S #110	open
The Bevy Co	Bar		22 Poverty Rd	open
The Blues Cafe	Café	Coffee	150 Lee Farm Dr	open
The Lodge Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1455 Southford Rd	open
The Mad Greek Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Greek · Pizza · Healthy / salads / bowls	284 Main St S	open
The Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		522 Heritage Rd	open
Yvonnes Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	1482 Southford Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	22	20	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	21	19	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	25	22	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	29	27	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	27	25	17	5	3	1	NAICS1997
1999	29	26	19	5	2	2	NAICS1997
2000	28	25	17	6	2	2	NAICS1997
2001	27	24	13	7	4	2	NAICS1997
2002	33	24	17	5	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	35	28	20	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	32	23	16	5	2	2	NAICS2002
2005	31	23	14	7	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	37	29	17	10	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	39	28	18	7	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	35	27	18	6	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	35	28	18	7	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	34	27	16	8	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	34	28	17	7	4	—	NAICS2007
2012	35	32	20	7	5	1	NAICS2012
2013	34	32	19	7	6	1	NAICS2012
2014	34	31	17	9	5	1	NAICS2012
2015	32	29	15	9	5	1	NAICS2012
2016	37	34	18	10	6	1	NAICS2012
2017	39	36	19	12	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	39	37	19	13	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	38	36	17	14	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	37	35	17	12	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	41	40	18	15	7	—	NAICS2017
2022	40	39	19	14	6	—	NAICS2022
2023	37	36	19	12	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06488. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06482	4.7 mi	11	2023
06478	4.8 mi	24	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.