BMIE Market 06712

New Haven County, Connecticut · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,458 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,529 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±210 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,376 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,465 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$126,394 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,555 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±433 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$355,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,192 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 06712
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-15.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-21.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+37.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 6–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.66) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	21 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 06712. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.66, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Connecticut and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 258, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.7	79	40%	+31.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.5	53	35%	+18.7
Market Momentum Score	21.0	21	25%	+5.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,458	70	40%	+28.0
Median household income (ACS)	126,394	92	40%	+36.9
Households (ACS)	3,529	69	20%	+13.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-21.4	13	35%	+4.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.6	66	25%	+16.5
Population (ACS)	9,458	70	20%	+14.0
Median household income (ACS)	126,394	92	20%	+18.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 21 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-15.4	15	50%	+7.6
10-year restaurant growth	-21.4	13	30%	+3.9
20-year restaurant growth	22.2	47	20%	+9.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

Italian 5 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 4 · Pizza 4 · American 3 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Bar 2 · Café 2 · Other 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1st Class Pizzeria & Bar	Bar	Pizza · Italian	105 Waterbury Rd	open
Anna's Prospect Apizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	34 Waterbury Rd #2	open
Bakers Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	50 Waterbury Rd	open
Brunch House	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Casual dining	Coffee · Breakfast · American	49 Waterbury Rd	open
Cross Pointe Nutrition	Café	Coffee	50 Waterbury Rd Ste A	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	19 Waterbury Road	open
Golden Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	64 Waterbury Rd	open
Haven Pizzeria Napoletana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	22 Union City Rd	open
Hometown Pizza Of Prospect	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	29 Waterbury Rd	open
Mirabelle's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	50 Waterbury Rd	open
Not Just Blowin Smoke	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	32 Matthew St	open
Prospect Dairy Bar	Casual dining	American	29 Waterbury Rd	open
Quincy Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	50 Waterbury Rd	open
Señor Pancho's Señor Panchos Middlebury	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	280 Cheshire Rd	open
Sinful Sweets by Syd	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	82 Clark Hill Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	28 Waterbury Rd	open
Sweet Confections By Regina	Dessert	Dessert	34 Waterbury Rd Ste 3	open
The Big Dipper Ice Cream Parlour ️- Prospect	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	91 Waterbury Rd	open
The Sneaky Turtle	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	44 Waterbury Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	2	4	3	—	NAICS1997
2000	11	10	2	5	3	—	NAICS1997
2001	11	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	3	3	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	10	9	2	4	3	1	NAICS2002
2004	12	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS2002
2005	14	12	3	5	4	—	NAICS2002
2006	16	14	4	6	4	—	NAICS2002
2007	15	14	5	5	4	—	NAICS2002
2008	16	15	7	4	4	—	NAICS2007
2009	15	14	7	3	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	16	15	7	3	5	—	NAICS2007
2011	16	15	7	4	4	—	NAICS2007
2012	16	15	8	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	15	14	7	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	14	7	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	16	15	7	4	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	13	7	3	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	17	14	5	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	13	5	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	12	4	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	12	4	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	12	5	3	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	11	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 06712. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06706	3.4 mi	24	2023
06705	3.6 mi	55	2023
06410	3.8 mi	45	2023
06770	4.0 mi	52	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.