BMIE Market 10970

Rockland County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,497 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±820 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,997 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±330 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,993 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,918 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$120,186 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,807 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,950 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±281 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$360,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±63,348 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	11.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	19 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 10970
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-9.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+11.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+18.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+58.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 17–24) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	35 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 10970. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.5	79	40%	+31.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64.0	64	35%	+22.4
Market Momentum Score	35.1	35	25%	+8.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,497	73	40%	+29.1
Median household income (ACS)	120,186	90	40%	+36.1
Households (ACS)	3,997	71	20%	+14.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	11.8	56	35%	+19.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.5	47	25%	+11.9
Population (ACS)	11,497	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	120,186	90	20%	+18.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-9.5	19	50%	+9.5
10-year restaurant growth	11.8	56	30%	+16.7
20-year restaurant growth	18.8	45	20%	+9.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

Pizza 7 · American 6 · Sandwiches 4 · Bakery 3 · Italian 3 · Dessert 2 · Halal / kosher 2 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Coffee 1 · European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Mexican 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Specialty food shop 4 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Avanti Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1581 Route 202	open
Basilico Gourmet Pizzeria & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1633 Route 202	open
Bubbakoo's Burritos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · European	14 Thiells Mount Ivy Rd	open
Colonel's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	25 Old Route 202	open
David's Bagels	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	1633 US-202	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	361 Route 202 Shell	open
Ed's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	335 US-202	open
Gilligan's Clam Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	366 Route 202	open
Good Counsel Realty Ltd	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1669 Route 202	open
Kapao	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	1621 Route 202	open
Lucianna's Pizzeria Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1621 Route 202	open
Mount Ivy All American Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1669 US-202	open
Mount Ivy Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	14 Thiells Mount Ivy Rd	open
Mountain View Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	14 Thiells Mt Ivy Rd	open
Mt. Ivy Liquor Store	Bar		21 Old Route 202A	open
Ocean Empire Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		340 Route 202	open
Pies N Fries	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1581 US Route 202	open
Pizza Mia Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	14 Thiells Mt Ivy Rd	open
Pomona Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1621 US-202	open
Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1581 Route 202	open
Rita’s of 1581 US-202-Pomona NY Rita's Italian Ice	Dessert · Bar	Dessert		open
Rockland Pizza Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14 Thiells Mount Ivy Rd Unit 15	open
Saaz Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	1621 Route 202	open
Smash House Burgers Monsey Smash House Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Halal / kosher · American	1621 US-202 Unit 6	open
The Copper Still	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	357 US-202	open
The Diner - Kosher American kitchen	Casual dining	Halal / kosher · American	1669 US-202	open
Three Boys Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	1621 Route 202	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	21	21	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	19	18	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	27	21	10	8	3	1	NAICS1997
1999	23	17	8	6	3	1	NAICS1997
2000	20	14	7	4	3	1	NAICS1997
2001	19	12	7	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	24	17	11	4	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	22	16	11	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	22	16	11	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	21	16	9	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	22	17	9	7	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	21	17	11	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	22	18	11	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	20	17	9	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	20	17	10	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	22	18	10	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	22	18	9	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	21	17	11	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	22	18	9	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	25	20	9	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	22	17	9	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	26	22	12	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	26	21	11	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	23	18	10	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	24	19	8	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	25	18	8	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	26	19	8	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	25	19	8	10	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 10970. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
10984	2.5 mi	1	2016
10923	3.4 mi	19	2023
10980	3.8 mi	21	2023
10901	4.0 mi	49	2023
10956	4.1 mi	75	2023
10977	4.6 mi	89	2023
10993	4.9 mi	13	2023
10927	5.0 mi	25	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.