BMIE Market 11709

Nassau County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,744 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,595 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±179 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,669 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,651 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$149,191 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,721 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	51.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,127 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±339 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$710,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±42,665 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11709
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-47.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-47.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 6–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.16) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	48 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11709. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.16, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.4	77	40%	+31.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53.4	53	35%	+18.7
Market Momentum Score	48.1	48	25%	+12.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,744	65	40%	+26.0
Median household income (ACS)	149,191	96	40%	+38.4
Households (ACS)	2,595	65	20%	+13.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	35%	+6.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.4	59	25%	+14.7
Population (ACS)	6,744	65	20%	+13.0
Median household income (ACS)	149,191	96	20%	+19.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	28.6	83	50%	+41.3
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	30%	+5.5
20-year restaurant growth	-47.1	6	20%	+1.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (33)

By cuisine

American 6 · Seafood 5 · Italian 4 · Pizza 4 · Sandwiches 3 · Coffee 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Greek 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Bar 10 · Casual dining 8 · Quick service 4 · Specialty food shop 3 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Anthony's Gourmet Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	18 Bayville Ave	open
Bayville Deli & Pizzeria	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza	261 Bayville Ave	open
Bayville Luncheonette	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	265 Bayville Ave	open
Beaches and Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	8 Bayville Ave	open
Breakers Sports Bar and Grill	Bar · Casual dining	Burgers	12 Bayville Ave	open
Chen's Kitchen 8 Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		250 Bayville Ave	open
Connecticut Watch Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		18 Greenwich Ave	open
Connie's Pizza	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	30 Highland View Dr	open
Hidden Harbor Restaurant and Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	341 Bayville Ave	open
La Pasadita Bayville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	80 Bayville Ave #1671	open
Mill Creek Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	275 Bayville Ave	open
Millcreek Bae & Tavern	Bar	American	251 Bayville Ave	open
OAK NECK DELI	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	80 Bayville Ave	open
Ocean	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Sushi · Seafood · Japanese	333 Bayville Ave	open
Old Tappan Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom		37 Ludlam Ave	open
Piccolo Cantina Bay	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Mexican · Latin American (other)	2 Bayville Ave	open
Pine Island Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	333 Bayville Ave	open
Placilla’s Pub	Bar		Bayville	open
Ralph's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	16 Bayville Ave	open
Rv Snack Bar Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		40 Ludlam Ave	open
Schultzy's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	265 Bayville Ave	open
SCOOP & COFFEE	Coffee shop · Dessert · Café	Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts	271 Bayville Ave	open
Ship Wreck Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		10 Bayville Ave	open
Souvlaki Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	14 Bayville Ave	open
Sunset fish & lobster market & grill	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	14 Bayville Ave	open
Talentis Delicatessen	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	44 Bayville Ave	open
The Clam Bar at Bridge Marine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	40 Ludlam Ave	open
The Olde Place	Bar · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	424 Bayville Ave	open
Twin Harbors Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	341 Bayville Ave	open
Wall's Wharf	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	18 Greenwich Ave	open
Zozo's On The Bay	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	424 Bayville Ave	open
Ador Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	14 Bayville Ave	closed
Suzie Cakez Cupcakes	Bakery	Bakery	38 Bayville Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	18	17	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	20	19	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	21	19	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	23	19	12	7	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	21	18	11	7	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	18	16	8	8	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	16	14	7	7	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	20	16	7	9	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	19	17	10	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	18	17	10	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	20	19	10	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	19	17	9	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	17	15	10	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	19	14	9	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	14	10	7	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	14	10	7	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	17	13	9	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	15	11	6	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	14	10	5	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	12	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	14	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	13	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	12	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11709. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11765	1.7 mi	2	2007
11560	2.4 mi	13	2023
11771	2.8 mi	37	2023
11542	4.4 mi	82	2023
11732	4.5 mi	10	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.