BMIE Market 11560

Nassau County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,696 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±901 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,434 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±210 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,464 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,490 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$163,750 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±59,093 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$3,179 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±865 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$952,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±37,161 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11560
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+18.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-7.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 12–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.36) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	46 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11560. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.36, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.5	79	40%	+31.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.8	63	35%	+22.0
Market Momentum Score	45.5	46	25%	+11.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,696	67	40%	+26.8
Median household income (ACS)	163,750	97	40%	+39.0
Households (ACS)	2,434	64	20%	+12.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	8.3	53	35%	+18.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.9	46	25%	+11.6
Population (ACS)	7,696	67	20%	+13.4
Median household income (ACS)	163,750	97	20%	+19.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	8.3	53	30%	+15.8
20-year restaurant growth	18.2	44	20%	+8.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

American 5 · Pizza 4 · Coffee 3 · Italian 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 1 · Cuban 1 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · French 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Bar 5 · Quick service 4 · Café 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
4 The Plaza Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4 The Plz	open
Barney's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · French · European	315 Buckram Rd	open
Basil Leaf Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Italian · Coffee	7-B The Plaza	open
Birch Hill Market	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Casual dining	American · Sandwiches	153 Birch Hill Rd	open
Buckram Stables Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	31 Forest Ave	open
Caligiure's Bar	Bar · Quick service		8 Elm St	open
Chocolicious Chocolatier Inc	Dessert	Dessert	74 Birch Hill Rd	open
Country Plaza Delicatessen	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	105 Forest Ave	open
Heirlooms	Restaurant (service type not stated)		107 Forest Ave	open
Karmic Grind	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	2 Birch Hill Rd	open
La Cantina Bay	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2 Bayville Ave	open
Laguna Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cuban	146 Birch Hill Rd	open
Loafers Bakery & Gourmet Shoppe	Bakery	Bakery	175 Birch Hill Rd	open
Locust Valley Bagels	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Bakery · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza · Bakery	155 Forest Ave	open
Meridian	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	23 Birch Hill Rd	open
Piñons Pizza Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	23 Birch Hill Rd	open
Robbins Wolfe Eventeurs	Dessert · Catering	Ice cream / frozen desserts	37 Maple Ave	open
Stuey's Smokehouse BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	50 Birch Hill Rd	open
Tavern On The Plaza	Bar		4 The Plz	open
The Brass Rail	Casual dining · Bar		107 Forest Ave	open
The Chef's Table	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15 Birch Hill Rd	open
The Valley Bar & Lounge	Bar		4 The Plaza	open
Two25 Restaurant	Bar	Italian · Pizza	225 Birch Hill Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	17	14	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	16	14	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	10	8	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	17	12	8	2	2	1	NAICS1997
1999	16	11	7	2	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	14	10	8	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	14	11	9	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	12	11	9	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	15	11	9	2	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	15	12	7	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	16	12	8	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	14	12	8	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	15	13	9	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	18	14	8	4	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	13	9	5	3	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	16	10	6	3	1	4	NAICS2007
2011	16	11	7	3	1	4	NAICS2007
2012	14	12	7	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	14	12	7	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	12	10	5	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	13	12	6	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	13	12	7	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	17	13	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	13	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	13	7	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	13	8	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11560. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11765	1.6 mi	2	2007
11542	2.2 mi	82	2023
11709	2.4 mi	9	2023
11771	3.3 mi	37	2023
11732	3.7 mi	10	2023
11545	3.8 mi	26	2023
11579	3.8 mi	17	2023
11547	4.6 mi	1	2015
11548	5.0 mi	18	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.