BMIE Market 11754

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,565 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±992 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,692 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±381 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	18,958 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,975 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$123,393 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,055 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,955 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±235 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$624,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,299 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	25 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11754
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-13.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+8.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+38.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+19.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	28 (range 24–31) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.17) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	36 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11754. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.17, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	84.0	84	40%	+33.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66.5	66	35%	+23.3
Market Momentum Score	35.5	36	25%	+8.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,565	79	40%	+31.7
Median household income (ACS)	123,393	91	40%	+36.6
Households (ACS)	6,692	79	20%	+15.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	8.7	53	35%	+18.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.2	56	25%	+13.9
Population (ACS)	17,565	79	20%	+15.8
Median household income (ACS)	123,393	91	20%	+18.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-13.8	16	50%	+8.1
10-year restaurant growth	8.7	53	30%	+15.8
20-year restaurant growth	38.9	58	20%	+11.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (49)

By cuisine

American 6 · Italian 6 · Chinese 5 · Coffee 5 · Pizza 5 · Bakery 4 · Asian 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Breakfast 2 · Seafood 2 · BBQ 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 32 · Bar 8 · Bakery 6 · Casual dining 6 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 4 · Café 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Catering 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3 Sons Deli & Catering	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	627 E Main St	open
3 Sons Pizza Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	623 E Main St	open
Bagel King Manhattan Bagel	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	5 Main St	open
Beautifully Baking	Bakery	Bakery		open
Cafe Red	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Italian	107 Main St	open
Carvel Carvel Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	93 Main St	open
Celtic Crossing Tavern	Bar	British / Irish pub food	83 Pulaski Rd	open
China Gourmet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	68 Indian Head Rd	open
Ciro's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	74 Main St	open
Dixie's Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	12 Indian Head Rd	open
Doc Ryans	Bar		741 E Main St	open
Dragon House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	118 Main St	open
Dragon House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	118 E Main St	open
Dunkin Donuts Dunkin'	Dessert · Bakery · Quick service · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Coffee	101 Pulaski Rd	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	36 Indian Head Rd	open
Edelweiss Delicatessen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		86 Main St	open
Fsb Early Start Center Inc. Dba New Begi	Restaurant (service type not stated)		180 Lawrence Rd	open
Ghost Town Coffee Co.	Coffee shop	Coffee	23 Indian Head Rd	open
Gino's of Kings Park	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	52 Indian Head Rd	open
Hershey Ice Cream Creamer	Restaurant (service type not stated)		118 Main St	open
Joey D San Remo Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	627 E Main St	open
KristinsKorner	Casual dining · Bar		34 Indian Head Rd	open
Linda's Riverside Pizzeria & Cafe	Café	Italian · Pizza · Coffee	100 Riviera	open
Long River Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian · American	4 Main St	open
Main Street Pizza Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	89 Main St	open
Main Street Pub	Bar · Casual dining		21 Main St	open
Massa &amp Sons Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		627 E Main St	open
Mi Pueblo Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	95 Pulaski Rd	open
Mrs Browns Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2 Pulaski Rd	open
New Kings Food Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	619 E Main St	open
Old Dock Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	798 Old Dock Rd	open
Park Bake Shop	Bakery	Bakery	112 Main St	open
Professor's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	58 Indian Head Rd	open
Ralph’s Famous Italian Ices	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	14 Main St	open
Reimels &amp Associates Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		49 Indian Head Rd	open
Relish	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	2 Pulaski Rd	open
Rubi Ortez Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8 Indian Head Rd	open
Shagwong Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		774 Main St	open
SHANAHANS BAR & GRILL	Casual dining · Bar		515 Old Dock Rd	open
shortstop pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8 Indian Head Rd	open
Simply Greek	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	12 Indian Head Rd	open
SoBoL Kings Park SoBol Beverly	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegan · Healthy / salads / bowls · Breakfast	118 Main St	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	295 Indian Head Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	56 Main St	open
That Brunch Spot	Restaurant (service type not stated)		605 E Main St	open
The Park Lounge	Bar		605 E Main St	open
The Reel Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	112 Main St	open
Tom Egan Cesspool Service Inc-sba Small 7a Term	Restaurant (service type not stated)		169 Townline Rd	open
VFW Post 5796	Bar		40 Church St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	23	21	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	21	19	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	22	18	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	25	21	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	27	21	7	10	4	4	NAICS1997
1999	27	21	8	10	3	4	NAICS1997
2000	33	25	11	11	3	6	NAICS1997
2001	25	20	9	9	2	5	NAICS1997
2002	24	17	11	5	1	6	NAICS1997
2003	24	18	7	11	—	5	NAICS2002
2004	25	20	7	11	2	4	NAICS2002
2005	27	21	9	10	2	4	NAICS2002
2006	30	22	9	11	1	4	NAICS2002
2007	30	24	11	8	5	4	NAICS2002
2008	31	22	11	8	3	5	NAICS2007
2009	33	24	11	10	3	4	NAICS2007
2010	33	23	12	9	2	5	NAICS2007
2011	32	22	10	9	3	5	NAICS2007
2012	30	21	9	9	3	4	NAICS2012
2013	31	23	12	7	3	4	NAICS2012
2014	31	23	9	11	2	3	NAICS2012
2015	32	25	11	11	3	3	NAICS2012
2016	34	27	13	10	4	3	NAICS2012
2017	36	27	14	9	4	3	NAICS2017
2018	38	29	14	11	4	3	NAICS2017
2019	37	28	14	10	4	3	NAICS2017
2020	33	25	13	8	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	36	26	13	9	4	4	NAICS2017
2022	37	27	12	10	5	4	NAICS2022
2023	35	25	12	8	5	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11754. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11787	3.0 mi	101	2023
11725	3.5 mi	93	2023
11731	3.8 mi	67	2023
11780	4.4 mi	35	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.