BMIE Market 11795

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	25,379 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,841 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,011 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±497 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	26,030 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,526 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$177,269 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,716 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,798 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±333 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$619,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,148 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	5.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	36 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11795
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-5.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-7.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+16.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+24.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	35 (range 33–38) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.18) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	90 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	26 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11795. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.18, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	89.8	90	40%	+35.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.5	58	35%	+20.1
Market Momentum Score	25.7	26	25%	+6.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	25,379	86	40%	+34.2
Median household income (ACS)	177,269	98	40%	+39.3
Households (ACS)	8,011	82	20%	+16.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-7.7	20	35%	+6.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.2	56	25%	+13.9
Population (ACS)	25,379	86	20%	+17.1
Median household income (ACS)	177,269	98	20%	+19.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 26 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-5.3	22	50%	+11.2
10-year restaurant growth	-7.7	20	30%	+5.9
20-year restaurant growth	16.1	43	20%	+8.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (68)

By cuisine

Sandwiches 10 · Italian 9 · Pizza 8 · American 7 · Dessert 6 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Chinese 4 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Asian 3 · Bakery 3 · Coffee 3 · Mexican 2 · BBQ 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 38 · Bar 9 · Dessert 9 · Quick service 9 · Specialty food shop 7 · Bakery 6 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Casual dining 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Other 2 · Café 1 · Fast casual 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
159 Higbie Pizza Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		159 Higbie Ln	open
1683 Bar	Bar · Casual dining		401 Sunrise Hwy	open
264 Higbie Lane Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		264 Higbie Ln	open
A&W Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	444 Union Blvd	open
Anthony's Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	791 Udall Rd	open
Atlantis Diner Atlantis Diner	Casual dining	American · Greek	350 Montauk Hwy	open
Bagel Buzz	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	498 Union Blvd	open
Bang Bang Burritos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	464 Union Blvd	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	343 Union Blvd	open
Bella Cucina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	424 Montauk Hwy	open
Bento Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	400 Union Blvd	open
Besito Mexican Restaurant - West Islip NY Besito Mexican Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	399 Montauk Hwy	open
Best Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	787 Udall Rd	open
Bestone Restaurant Express Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		351 Union Blvd	open
Biddy Spratts	Bar	BBQ	401 Sunrise Hwy	open
Bridges Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		999 Montauk Hwy	open
Cafe Mojo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	191 Higbie Ln	open
Candy Lane	Dessert	Dessert	197 Higbie Ln	open
Candy Lane	Dessert		563 Muncey Rd	open
Captree Gourmet Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	462 Union Blvd	open
Carvel Carvel Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	794 Udall Rd	open
Chiarelli's Italian Specialty	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Italian · Sandwiches	1071 Prospect Ave	open
Chiddy's Cheesesteaks Chiddy's CheeseSteaks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	510 Union Blvd	open
Classico Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5 Udall Rd	open
DonutNV	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	87 Eaton Lane	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	187 Sunrise Hwy	open
Farrell's of Brooklyn	Bar	British / Irish pub food	263 Higbie Ln	open
Four Season Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	608 Union Blvd	open
Hai Shang	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	510 Union Blvd	open
Hershey's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	470 Union Blvd	open
Hershey's Ice Cream Of West Islip	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	470 Union Blvd	open
Higbie Bagels	Bakery	Bakery	264 Higbie Ln	open
Higbie Heros	Other	Sandwiches	240 Higbie Ln	open
Hometown Heroes	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	240 Higbie Ln	open
House Of Juice	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	187 Sunrise Hwy Ste C	open
JASON FREDA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	636 UNION Blvd Floor 1	open
La Grange	Brewery / taproom		499 Montauk Hwy	open
Laredo Taco Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex	425 Union Blvd	open
Lion's Den	Casual dining · Bar	American	191 Higbie Ln	open
Long River	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	351 Union Blvd	open
McDonald's	Quick service		506 Union Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	131 Sunrise Hwy	open
Mimo's West	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	159 Higbie Ln	open
Mona Lisa Of Long Isla	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5 Udall Rd	open
Mr. Z's Sweet Treats	Restaurant (service type not stated)		189 Secatogue Ln W	open
New York Pain Management	Restaurant (service type not stated)		631 Montauk Hwy	open
Oak Neck Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	945 Montauk Hwy	open
Oak Neck Pizzeria & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	945 Montauk Hwy	open
Oakneck Holdings Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		999 Montauk Hwy	open
Panda Garden Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	270 Higbie Ln	open
Paradise Saloon	Bar		12 Union Blvd Ave	open
Primi Italian Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Italian	999 Montauk Hwy	open
Prospect On Union	Restaurant (service type not stated)		306 Union Blvd	open
Secatogue Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		375 Union Blvd	open
SomePlace Else	Bar		226 Higbie Ln	open
Spk	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	17 Udall Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	282 Higbie Ln	open
Summerwind Gourmet Delicatessen & Catering	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	434 Montauk Hwy	open
Swirls & Twirls	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	494 Union Blvd	open
The Stone	Bar			open
Tomasina’s Pizza And Pasta Café Europa Restaurant Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	504 Union Blvd	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	494 Union Blvd	open
Uncle Chuck's	Bar		401 Sunrise Hwy	open
Villa Monaco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	778 Montauk Hwy	open
West Islip Bagel	Bakery	Bakery	544 Hunter Ave	open
Yomi Pizza Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		945 Montauk Hwy Unit 5	open
Carousel Diner Brownstones Coffee	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	306 Union Blvd	closed
New York Gelato Company	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	939 Montauk Hwy	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	35	29	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1995	30	25	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	33	29	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	35	30	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1998	36	31	10	15	5	3	NAICS1997
1999	37	33	11	18	3	2	NAICS1997
2000	40	35	9	20	5	2	NAICS1997
2001	37	32	8	17	6	2	NAICS1997
2002	35	28	8	15	4	4	NAICS1997
2003	40	31	9	17	4	5	NAICS2002
2004	42	33	9	19	4	4	NAICS2002
2005	44	37	9	20	7	3	NAICS2002
2006	45	38	7	21	9	3	NAICS2002
2007	45	36	9	18	8	4	NAICS2002
2008	47	37	9	19	9	3	NAICS2007
2009	46	38	10	20	8	3	NAICS2007
2010	47	38	13	18	7	4	NAICS2007
2011	48	39	10	22	7	4	NAICS2007
2012	46	40	13	21	6	3	NAICS2012
2013	44	39	10	21	8	2	NAICS2012
2014	46	40	11	21	8	2	NAICS2012
2015	42	36	12	15	9	2	NAICS2012
2016	43	37	14	15	8	2	NAICS2012
2017	44	37	12	17	8	—	NAICS2017
2018	46	38	11	19	8	3	NAICS2017
2019	46	38	12	17	9	3	NAICS2017
2020	43	37	9	18	10	—	NAICS2017
2021	41	35	9	20	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	45	39	8	21	10	—	NAICS2022
2023	42	36	8	18	10	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11795. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11718	1.9 mi	8	2023
11703	2.2 mi	27	2023
11706	2.8 mi	142	2023
11704	3.3 mi	53	2023
11729	3.9 mi	82	2023
11757	4.3 mi	93	2023
11751	4.6 mi	27	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.