BMIE Market 11751

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,726 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±953 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,040 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±433 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,961 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,513 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$116,559 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,531 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,257 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±108 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$563,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,225 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	27 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11751
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-6.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+107.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+107.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	31 (range 27–36) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.44) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	49 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11751. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.44, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.6	81	40%	+32.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66.9	67	35%	+23.4
Market Momentum Score	48.6	49	25%	+12.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,726	75	40%	+30.1
Median household income (ACS)	116,559	89	40%	+35.7
Households (ACS)	5,040	74	20%	+14.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	28.6	70	35%	+24.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.7	38	25%	+9.5
Population (ACS)	13,726	75	20%	+15.1
Median household income (ACS)	116,559	89	20%	+17.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-6.9	21	50%	+10.6
10-year restaurant growth	28.6	70	30%	+21.0
20-year restaurant growth	107.7	85	20%	+17.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (53)

By cuisine

American 9 · Italian 6 · Pizza 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Coffee 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Breakfast 2 · British / Irish pub food 2 · Burgers 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Japanese 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Sushi 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 31 · Bar 7 · Quick service 7 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 4 · Café 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Other 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Catering 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alchemyliny	Casual dining · Bar		526 Main St	open
Americano Pie Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	517 Main St	open
Angela's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	192 Islip Ave	open
Arsh Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		500 Islip Ave	open
Artisans Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		174 Islip Ave	open
Bagels & More	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast	167 Islip Ave	open
Bayberry	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	501 E Main St	open
Beaver Dam Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom		1 Beaver Dam Rd	open
Beer Shack	Bar		259 Main St	open
Blimpie	Other	Sandwiches	540 Islip Ave	open
Bohlsen Restaurant Group	Restaurant (service type not stated)		577 Main St	open
Bubba's Burrito Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	513 Main St	open
Cathy's Health Cafe	Café	Coffee	181 Freeman Ave	open
Cookies United	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	141 Freeman Ave	open
Creative Restaurant Group Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		116 Main St	open
Culture Yogurt	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	353 Main St	open
Da Noi Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	301 Main St	open
Dang Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	174 Islip Ave	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	214 Islip Ave	open
Gino's Tuscany Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	517 Main St	open
God Bless America Ltd	Restaurant (service type not stated)		749 Main St	open
Great South Bay Brewery Great South Bay Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		2401 Union Blvd	open
Grilli's Gourmet Deli & Catering	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	225 Islip Ave	open
Harp and Hound	Bar	British / Irish pub food	528 Main St	open
Hutleys	Bar · Quick service		501 Main St	open
Islip Country Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	240 Main St	open
J&R's Islip Steak House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	116 E Main St	open
K&j Ice Cream Parlors Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		509 Main St	open
KoiKokoro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	501 Main St	open
Mango Tango	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Sushi · Japanese · Asian	496 Main St	open
Manhattan Sweets Boutique Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	547 Main St	open
Maple Street Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	199 Maple St	open
Marconi Lodge	Restaurant (service type not stated)		333 Moffitt Blvd	open
Mary Dowling's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	British / Irish pub food	528 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	107 Main St	open
Nico at the Gatsby Mansion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	712 Main St	open
Oconee Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	749 Montauk Hwy	open
Port Royal Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	591 Main St	open
Rogue Kitchens	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other			open
Scoops Ice Cream & Yogurt	Dessert · Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	509 Main St	open
Sheppard Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2173 Sunrise Hwy	open
Sobol Islip	Café	Coffee	479 Main St	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	455 E Main St	open
Steakhouse Enterprises Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		605 Main St	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	479 Main St	open
Tellers: An American Chophouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	605 E Main St	open
The Pizzeria of Islip The Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	591 Main St	open
Tim Hortons	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	2300-Sunrise Highway	open
Viking Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	176 Main St	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	168 Main Street	open
Zom-PIE-Land	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	400 Main St	open
Full Martini	Bar		174 Islip Ave	closed
Opa	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · Greek · American	260 Islip Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	16	13	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	14	11	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	16	12	9	2	1	4	NAICS1997
1999	14	11	8	2	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	13	10	7	2	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	16	13	8	3	2	3	NAICS1997
2002	15	13	7	3	3	2	NAICS1997
2003	17	13	7	2	4	3	NAICS2002
2004	21	15	10	2	3	4	NAICS2002
2005	23	16	11	2	3	4	NAICS2002
2006	19	14	10	2	2	2	NAICS2002
2007	21	15	8	5	2	3	NAICS2002
2008	23	17	10	6	1	3	NAICS2007
2009	27	21	14	6	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	24	20	14	5	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	26	21	14	6	1	3	NAICS2007
2012	27	20	11	8	1	4	NAICS2012
2013	27	21	10	8	3	4	NAICS2012
2014	29	22	10	10	2	5	NAICS2012
2015	28	22	10	10	2	4	NAICS2012
2016	28	22	11	9	2	4	NAICS2012
2017	35	29	16	10	3	3	NAICS2017
2018	34	29	17	8	4	3	NAICS2017
2019	32	27	16	8	3	3	NAICS2017
2020	31	26	15	6	5	3	NAICS2017
2021	30	26	15	6	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	27	26	14	7	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	28	27	13	9	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11751. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11730	1.5 mi	32	2023
11706	2.0 mi	142	2023
11718	2.7 mi	8	2023
11752	2.8 mi	10	2023
11739	2.9 mi	6	2023
11722	3.8 mi	44	2023
11717	4.2 mi	58	2023
11795	4.6 mi	36	2023
11769	4.7 mi	26	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.