BMIE Market 11769

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,935 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,023 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,409 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±335 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,506 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,168 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$123,558 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,954 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	51.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,239 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±340 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$607,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,307 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	26 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11769
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	29.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-7.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+4.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+36.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+73.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	26 (range 22–30) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.12) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	37 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11769. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.12, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.9	78	40%	+31.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.5	55	35%	+19.1
Market Momentum Score	36.5	37	25%	+9.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,935	69	40%	+27.6
Median household income (ACS)	123,558	91	40%	+36.6
Households (ACS)	3,409	69	20%	+13.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	4	49	35%	+17.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	29.1	21	25%	+5.3
Population (ACS)	8,935	69	20%	+13.8
Median household income (ACS)	123,558	91	20%	+18.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-7.1	21	50%	+10.5
10-year restaurant growth	4	49	30%	+14.7
20-year restaurant growth	36.8	57	20%	+11.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (44)

By cuisine

Asian 5 · Italian 5 · American 4 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 3 · Chinese 3 · Japanese 3 · Mexican 3 · Seafood 3 · Sushi 3 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Caribbean 1 · Coffee 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Thai 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 30 · Bar 11 · Casual dining 5 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 3 · Quick service 3 · Catering 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
American Times Restaurant & Tavern	Bar · Casual dining	British / Irish pub food	1487 Montauk Hwy	open
Bagel Hero	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	4540 Sunrise Hwy South Service Rd	open
Bella Bambina's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	4532 Sunrise Hwy	open
Burrito Blvd Oakdale	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1274 Montauk Hwy	open
Da Hang Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	4580 Sunrise Hwy	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Dessert · Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Dessert · Coffee	1243 Montauk Hwy	open
Fortune Cookies Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	581 Montauk Hwy	open
Green Cactus Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1274 Montauk Hwy	open
Haio Sushi & Asian Fusion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian · Sushi	4514 Sunrise Hwy	open
Ichiban Sushi Ichiban Sushi Indonesia	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	1543 Montauk Hwy	open
Idle Hour Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	1500 Montauk Hwy	open
Island Empanada Oakdale	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	1551 Montauk Hwy	open
La Roma Pastry Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	4510 Sunrise Hwy	open
La Supreme Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	887 Montauk Hwy	open
Lyndas Eat Well & Be Well	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	4580 Sunrise Hwy Unit 14	open
Mama's Oakdale	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	587 Montauk Hwy	open
Mannino's	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1575 NY-27A	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	4498 Sunrise Hwy	open
McGovern's Bar & Grill	Bar		1487 Montauk Hwy	open
Modern Italian Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery · Italian	301 Locust Ave	open
Molly Maguires	Bar		927A Montauk Hwy	open
Mr Wang Asian Gourmet	Catering	Asian · Chinese	1300 Montauk Hwy	open
Oakdale Beach Club	Bar		440 Vanderbilt Blvd	open
Oakdale Brew House	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		927 Montauk Hwy	open
Oakdale Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)		887 Montauk Hwy	open
Oakdale Restaurant Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1575 Montauk Hwy	open
Onsen Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	597 Montauk Hwy	open
Pad Thai & Chinese Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	915 Montauk Hwy	open
Pizza Network	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4580 Sunrise Hwy	open
Pollack Acupuncture P.c	Restaurant (service type not stated)		889 Montauk Hwy	open
Red Mango	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4550 Sunrise Hwy.	open
Shakers Pub	Bar		4608 Sunrise Hwy South Service Rd	open
Shing Yeun Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1300 Montauk Hwy	open
South Bay Mechanical Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1392 Montauk Hwy	open
The Snapper Inn	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	500 Shore Dr	open
The Spot at Oakdale Yacht Club	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		520 Shore Dr	open
The View Restaurant on the Great South Bay In Oakdale, Long Island New York	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
The Wharf	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		445 Vanderbilt Blvd	open
View	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	3 Consuelo Pl	open
Viva La Vida	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Spanish / tapas · Latin American (other)	1611 Montauk Hwy	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	885 Montauk Hwy	open
Wild Side Organic Bistro & Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Vegan	1551 Montauk Hwy	open
Amity Global Innovation Incubator	Restaurant (service type not stated)		500 Montauk Hwy # 2	closed
Long Island Billiard Club	Bar		4116 Sunrise Hwy	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	19	15	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	16	13	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	24	20	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	27	20	8	8	3	4	NAICS1997
1999	23	17	9	6	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	23	16	9	5	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	22	15	8	5	2	3	NAICS1997
2002	21	15	6	6	3	3	NAICS1997
2003	23	19	6	10	3	2	NAICS2002
2004	26	24	9	12	3	2	NAICS2002
2005	25	22	9	10	3	3	NAICS2002
2006	25	22	9	10	3	2	NAICS2002
2007	25	23	13	8	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	24	22	12	8	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	28	25	15	9	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	30	28	19	7	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	29	27	15	10	2	2	NAICS2007
2012	29	27	14	10	3	2	NAICS2012
2013	27	25	13	10	2	2	NAICS2012
2014	34	32	16	13	3	2	NAICS2012
2015	32	30	14	12	4	2	NAICS2012
2016	31	29	16	11	2	2	NAICS2012
2017	29	27	16	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	31	28	15	12	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	29	27	16	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	30	26	14	11	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	31	28	14	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	30	28	14	13	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	28	26	13	11	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11769. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11796	1.4 mi	3	2023
11782	2.4 mi	48	2023
11739	2.7 mi	6	2023
11716	3.0 mi	43	2023
11752	3.0 mi	10	2023
11730	3.2 mi	32	2023
11705	3.7 mi	23	2023
11751	4.7 mi	27	2023
11715	4.9 mi	15	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.