BMIE Market 11782
Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 14,405 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,193 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 5,489 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±358 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 15,814 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 7,012 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $147,672 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,999 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 44.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,350 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±185 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $637,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,490 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 5.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 48 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11782 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 28.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +11.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +6.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +60.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 45 (range 38–52) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 84 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 63 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11782. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 83.9 | 84 | 40% | +33.6 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 58.1 | 58 | 35% | +20.3 |
| Market Momentum Score | 62.9 | 63 | 25% | +15.7 |
Consumer Market Score: 84 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 14,405 | 76 | 40% | +30.4 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 147,672 | 96 | 40% | +38.4 |
| Households (ACS) | 5,489 | 76 | 20% | +15.1 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 11.6 | 55 | 35% | +19.4 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 33.3 | 17 | 25% | +4.3 |
| Population (ACS) | 14,405 | 76 | 20% | +15.2 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 147,672 | 96 | 20% | +19.2 |
Market Momentum Score: 63 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 20 | 77 | 50% | +38.7 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 11.6 | 55 | 30% | +16.7 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 6.7 | 38 | 20% | +7.6 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (89)
By cuisine
American 19 · Coffee 13 · Pizza 9 · Dessert 7 · Italian 7 · Sandwiches 7 · Bakery 6 · Asian 5 · Burgers 5 · Juice / smoothies 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Seafood 4 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · European 1 · Greek 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 59 · Bar 21 · Casual dining 14 · Café 10 · Coffee shop 9 · Dessert 9 · Quick service 9 · Bakery 7 · Specialty food shop 6 · Juice, smoothie, tea 5 · Catering 2 · Delivery-focused 2 · Fast casual 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bagel Express | Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop | Bakery · Sandwiches | 217 N Main St | open |
| Beijing Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 291-I W Main St | open |
| Bistro 25 | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 45 Foster Ave | open | |
| Blackbirds' Grille | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 553 Old Montauk Hwy | open |
| Brunch Sayville | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 32 Foster Ave | open |
| Butera's Restaurant of Sayville Butera's Restaurants of Woodbury, Bay Shore and Sayville | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Italian · American | 100 Middle Rd | open |
| Cafe Joelle | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee · American | 25 Montauk Hwy | open |
| Canteen | Café · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Casual dining | Seafood · Coffee | Harbor Walk | open |
| Carvel Carvel Ice Cream | Dessert · Bakery | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Bakery | 25 Montauk Hwy | open |
| Cherry Grove Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | Pizza · Italian | 179 Ocean Walk | open |
| Cherry's On The Bay | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | 158 Bayview Walk | open | |
| Crickets | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 98 Main St | open |
| Crosstown Chef | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 399 N Main St | open | |
| Dark Horse Coffee & Kitchen | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 4836 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| Denicola Brothers Concepts | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 183 W Main St | open | |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Delivery-focused · Quick service | Pizza | 5640 30 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| Dunkin' | Coffee shop | Coffee | 165 W Main St | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 165 W Main St | open |
| Eli Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 158 Lakeland Ave | open |
| Five Points Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café · Casual dining · Bar | Coffee · Burgers · American | 1 Main St | open |
| Floyd's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast · American | 156 Bayview Walk | open |
| Friendly's Friendly's | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 210 Montauk Hwy | open |
| Fritzsche's Bakery | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 56 Main St | open |
| Hot Bagels DeLox | Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop | Bakery · Sandwiches | 372 N Main St | open |
| Island Breeze | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 178 Bayview Walk | open | |
| Jade Garden | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 29 N Main St | open | |
| Koi Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 136 Main St | open |
| Koi Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 136 Main St | open |
| La Tavola | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 183 N Main St | open | |
| Landmark Deli | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 371 Lakeland Ave | open |
| Little Black Restaurant Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 553 Old Montauk Hwy | open | |
| Local Burger - Sayville Local Burger - Bay Shore | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · American | 30 Hanson Pl | open |
| Loughlin Vineyard | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 299 Middle Rd | open | |
| Low Tea | Bar | American | 70 Picketty Ruff Walk | open |
| Main Street Diner | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 229 W Main St | open |
| Main Street Gourmet Deli | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 399 N Main St | open | |
| Mallory Square Restaurant and Bar | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 41 River Rd | open |
| Metros on Main | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · European | 60 Main St | open |
| MrBeast Burger | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 210 N Main St | open |
| Nelaj Corp | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 21 N Main St | open | |
| Parkville Plaza Delicatessen | Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering | Sandwiches | 154 Lakeland Ave | open |
| Parlor House Grill | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 298 W Main St | open |
| Perry's Pub | Bar · Casual dining | 209 Railroad Ave | open | |
| Pines Bistro and Martini Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 36 Fire Island Blvd | open |
| Pizza Hut Express Starbucks | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café | Pizza · Coffee | 5750 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| Popei's Seafood | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 299 Raft Ave | open |
| Portly Fun Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 261 W Main St | open | |
| Ralph's Italian Ices | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 153 Main St | open |
| Ramen Ramen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Noodles / ramen / pho | 185 N Main St | open |
| Ruby Tuesday | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 5650 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| Sal's Pizzeria & Catering | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering | Pizza · Italian | 183 N Main St | open |
| Sand Castle | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · American | 106 Lewis Walk | open |
| Sayville Aegean Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Mediterranean · Breakfast · Greek · Coffee | 35 Main St | open |
| Sayville Athletic Club | Bar | 209 Railroad Ave | open | |
| Sayville Bait & Tackle | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 220 N Main St | open | |
| Sayville Bean Coffee House | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 59 W Main St | open |
| Sayville Chocolatier | Dessert | Dessert | 6 Main St | open |
| Sayville Donut Group Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 165 W Main St | open | |
| Sayville Downtown | Bar | 2 Main St | open | |
| Sayville Gourmet Deli | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 21 N Main St | open |
| Sayville Nutrition House | Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop | Coffee · Juice / smoothies | 291 W Main St | open |
| Sayville Pizza & Metros on main Italian Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 60 Main St | open |
| Sayville Sandwich | Specialty food shop · Quick service · Delivery-focused | Sandwiches | 291 W Main St #2543 | open |
| Sidetracked Bar & Grill | Bar · Casual dining | 209 Railroad Ave | open | |
| Sip n Twirl | Bar | 36 Fire Island Blvd | open | |
| Six Juice | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 291 W Main St | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 90 Main Street | open |
| Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee | 59 Main St | open |
| Station Pub | Bar | 3 Lakeland Ave | open | |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 186 Main St. Unit 2 | open |
| Super Bowls | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Healthy / salads / bowls · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 153 Main St | open |
| Sweet Gourmet | Dessert | 69 Main St | open | |
| Sweet Licks | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 181 Bayview Walk | open |
| Sweet Mandarin | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 239 N Main St | open |
| sweetFrog sweetFrog Premium Frozen Yogurt | Dessert | Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts | 5640-35 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| Texas Taco | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican | 21 N Main St | open |
| The Country Rotisserie | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 217 North Main St. (Montauk Hwy) | open |
| The Cull House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · American | 75 Terry St | open |
| The Greenery | Juice, smoothie, tea · Fast casual | Healthy / salads / bowls · Juice / smoothies | 289 Railroad Ave | open |
| The Portly Villager | Bar · Casual dining | American | 261 W Main St | open |
| The Sayville Inn | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 199 Middle Rd | open |
| TOA Asian Fusion | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 239 N Main St | open |
| Tommy Tish's Tiki Bar | Bar | 178 Bayview Walk | open | |
| Top of the Bay Bistro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 159 Dock Walk | open |
| Umberto's of Sayville | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 37 N Main St | open |
| Vegging out at Clementines | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery | Bakery | 4836 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| Village Pizza, Deli & Convenience | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Pizza · Sandwiches | 399 N Main St | open |
| Wingstop Wingstop | Quick service | 5640 Sunrise Highway | open | |
| Pines Pool Deck | Bar | 41 River Rd | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 37 | 30 | — | — | — | 7 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 33 | 26 | — | — | — | 7 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 35 | 29 | — | — | — | 6 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 46 | 39 | — | — | — | 7 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 46 | 37 | 21 | 13 | 3 | 7 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 47 | 37 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 8 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 43 | 36 | 20 | 14 | 2 | 6 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 39 | 33 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 5 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 47 | 44 | 25 | 14 | 5 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 50 | 45 | 30 | 10 | 5 | 4 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 49 | 44 | 28 | 11 | 5 | 4 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 52 | 45 | 27 | 12 | 6 | 6 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 50 | 41 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 8 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 51 | 44 | 23 | 16 | 5 | 6 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 50 | 44 | 23 | 14 | 7 | 5 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 50 | 44 | 23 | 14 | 7 | 5 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 51 | 45 | 24 | 14 | 7 | 5 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 50 | 43 | 21 | 13 | 9 | 6 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 48 | 42 | 23 | 11 | 8 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 48 | 43 | 24 | 10 | 9 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 51 | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 49 | 44 | 25 | 11 | 8 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 44 | 39 | 21 | 10 | 8 | 5 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 45 | 41 | 24 | 10 | 7 | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 45 | 40 | 23 | 11 | 6 | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 47 | 40 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 5 | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 45 | 41 | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 44 | 39 | 22 | 10 | 7 | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 56 | 47 | 19 | 20 | 8 | 4 | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 55 | 48 | 21 | 20 | 7 | 4 | NAICS2022 |