BMIE Market 11730

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,247 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,185 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,994 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±344 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,712 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,035 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$145,652 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,912 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,732 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±296 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$594,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,577 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	32 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11730
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	21.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+6.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+6.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+33.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	32 (range 26–37) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	55 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11730. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.4	83	40%	+33.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60.1	60	35%	+21.0
Market Momentum Score	55.5	55	25%	+13.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,247	76	40%	+30.3
Median household income (ACS)	145,652	96	40%	+38.2
Households (ACS)	4,994	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	6.7	51	35%	+17.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	22.5	31	25%	+7.9
Population (ACS)	14,247	76	20%	+15.2
Median household income (ACS)	145,652	96	20%	+19.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	6.7	63	50%	+31.7
10-year restaurant growth	6.7	51	30%	+15.3
20-year restaurant growth	14.3	42	20%	+8.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (65)

By cuisine

Sandwiches 13 · American 11 · Bakery 7 · Pizza 7 · Coffee 6 · Dessert 6 · Burgers 5 · Italian 5 · Seafood 5 · Chinese 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Breakfast 2 · British / Irish pub food 2 · Asian 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 31 · Quick service 15 · Bar 13 · Specialty food shop 11 · Bakery 9 · Casual dining 8 · Dessert 7 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Other 2 · Catering 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
"The Dugout" in East Islip	Bar		73 W Main St	open
117 Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Breakfast	117 W Main St	open
A&M Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	132 Connetquot Ave	open
Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2550 Sunrise Hwy	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert	13 W Main St	open
Bayside Clam Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	300 Bayview Ave	open
Beachtree Cafe Of East Islip Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		166 W Main St	open
Bellina's Pizza And Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	22 E Main St	open
Blue Line Deli and Bagels	Specialty food shop · Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Coffee · Bakery	217 Carleton Ave	open
Boston Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	23 W Main St	open
Burger Break	Quick service	Burgers · American	105 E Main St	open
Buttermilk's Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	93 E Main St	open
Carvel Carvel Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	216 E Main St	open
Corcoran's Hero Shoppe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches · Breakfast	133 E Main St	open
Drift Inn	Casual dining · Bar		236 E Main St	open
Dunkin Donuts Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	300 E. Main St Heckscher Plaza	open
East Islip Clam & Oyster Bar	Bar	Seafood	2 E Main St	open
East Islip Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	117 W Main St	open
East Islip Gourmet Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	85 E Main St	open
East Islip Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	296 E Main St	open
Fargiano's Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	93 E Main St	open
Fatty McGees	Casual dining · Bar	American · Burgers	138 Connetquot Ave	open
Finagle Bagel	Bakery	Bakery	286 E Main St # ST-2820	open
Francesco's Trattoria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	234 E Main St	open
Friendly's Friendly's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American · Burgers	50 Montauk Hwy	open
Gio's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	213 Carleton Ave	open
H2O	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Sushi · Japanese	166 W Main St	open
Harry's Bagels	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	286 E Main St	open
Hometown Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	104 E Main St	open
International Choice Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	217 Carleton Ave	open
Isabella's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	142 Connetquot Ave	open
Jackson Hall American Bar & Grille	Casual dining · Bar	American · Seafood	335 E Main St	open
KC's Sub Shop	Other	Sandwiches	49 W Main St	open
Michael & Paul's Italian Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		234 E Main St	open
Milano Bean Cafe	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	51 W Main St	open
Mr Softee Store / Hamptons Soft Ice Cream Inc	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	195 Carleton Ave	open
MrBeast Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	50 Montauk Hwy	open
Oscar's Ale House	Bar		117 W Main St	open
Outfield Pub	Bar		168 Carleton Ave	open
P & K Store Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		24 E Main St	open
Presto Pizza Corp.-sba Small 7a Term	Restaurant (service type not stated)		213 Carleton Ave	open
Pudgie's Famous Chicken & Arthur Treachers Fish & Chips	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	126 E Main St #6 ( Opposit East Islip Bowl)	open
Ralph's Famous Italian Ices	Dessert	Dessert · Italian	54 W Main St	open
Renzo's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	314 E Main St	open
Riley Fibbers	Bar · Casual dining		148 Carleton Ave	open
Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	105 E. Main Street	open
Salah’s Halal Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Halal / kosher · Mediterranean · Caribbean	103 W Main St	open
Shandon Court	Bar	British / Irish pub food · American	115 E Main St	open
Short Stop Inn	Bar		259 Carleton Ave	open
South Shore Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	85 E Main St	open
Stanley's Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	68 E Main St	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	2590 Sunrise Hwy	open
Stuff-A-Bagel	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	24 E Main St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	67 E Main St	open
Sunrise Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	132 Connetquot Ave	open
Sunrise Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	207 Carleton Ave	open
Supreme Blends East Islip	Restaurant (service type not stated)		71 W Main St	open
Tasty House Ii	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	318 E Main St	open
Tex’s Chicken & Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	23 W Main St	open
The Irish Coffee Pub	Bar	British / Irish pub food	131 Carleton Ave	open
Ubaid Foods, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		77 W Main St	open
Veritas Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		42 W Main St	open
Vinnie's Mulberry Street	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	42 W Main St	open
Yan Min Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	97 E Main St	open
Yong Wang Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	31 W Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	27	24	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	24	21	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	24	21	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	27	24	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	29	25	13	7	5	3	NAICS1997
1999	33	28	14	7	7	4	NAICS1997
2000	28	23	12	7	4	4	NAICS1997
2001	27	22	13	6	3	4	NAICS1997
2002	35	29	15	10	4	5	NAICS1997
2003	32	28	13	10	5	2	NAICS2002
2004	31	27	12	10	5	3	NAICS2002
2005	31	27	12	10	5	3	NAICS2002
2006	29	25	12	8	5	3	NAICS2002
2007	32	25	10	11	4	6	NAICS2002
2008	29	23	10	8	5	5	NAICS2007
2009	29	23	8	9	6	5	NAICS2007
2010	37	31	10	14	7	5	NAICS2007
2011	42	36	14	16	6	5	NAICS2007
2012	34	27	12	11	4	6	NAICS2012
2013	37	30	13	12	5	6	NAICS2012
2014	33	26	11	10	5	6	NAICS2012
2015	36	30	13	13	4	5	NAICS2012
2016	43	37	13	17	7	5	NAICS2012
2017	38	32	13	13	6	6	NAICS2017
2018	36	30	12	12	6	6	NAICS2017
2019	36	29	11	13	5	6	NAICS2017
2020	38	32	11	14	7	5	NAICS2017
2021	35	29	8	16	5	5	NAICS2017
2022	35	30	8	15	7	4	NAICS2022
2023	38	32	9	16	7	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11730. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11751	1.5 mi	27	2023
11739	1.5 mi	6	2023
11752	2.2 mi	10	2023
11769	3.2 mi	26	2023
11706	3.3 mi	142	2023
11722	3.9 mi	44	2023
11718	4.1 mi	8	2023
11716	4.3 mi	43	2023
11796	4.5 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.