BMIE Market 11752
Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 9,204 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±707 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 3,046 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±263 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 9,531 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 3,173 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $151,917 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,384 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 43.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,466 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±172 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $527,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,767 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 4.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11752 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 7.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -23.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | -16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 9 (range 7–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.40) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 28 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11752. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.40, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 79.8 | 80 | 40% | +31.9 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 54.9 | 55 | 35% | +19.2 |
| Market Momentum Score | 27.6 | 28 | 25% | +6.9 |
Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 9,204 | 70 | 40% | +27.8 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 151,917 | 96 | 40% | +38.5 |
| Households (ACS) | 3,046 | 67 | 20% | +13.4 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -23.1 | 13 | 35% | +4.4 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 10.9 | 69 | 25% | +17.3 |
| Population (ACS) | 9,204 | 70 | 20% | +13.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 151,917 | 96 | 20% | +19.3 |
Market Momentum Score: 28 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 0 | 42 | 50% | +20.9 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -23.1 | 13 | 30% | +3.8 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | -16.7 | 15 | 20% | +2.9 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (28)
By cuisine
American 6 · Sandwiches 5 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 4 · Italian 4 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Chinese 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Asian 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Quick service 8 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 6 · Specialty food shop 5 · Coffee shop 3 · Bar 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Wing Away Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 38 Lowell Ave | open |
| B T Express Deli & Cafe | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 85 Carleton Ave Unit B | open |
| Bagels N Brunch Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 833 Connetquot Ave | open |
| Bagels on the Terrace | Bakery | Bakery | 871 Connetquot Ave | open |
| Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 24-28 Lowell Ave | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 3239 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| Carleton Avenue Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 64 Carleton Ave | open |
| Charlie's Legendary Hot Dogs & Onions LLC | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Hot dogs · American | 16 Lowell Ave | open |
| Cosmos Burgers Creamery | Dessert | Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts · American | 876 Connetquot Ave | open |
| Dunkin' Donuts | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 3309 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| El Garrobero | Bar | Latin American (other) | 42 Lowell Ave | open |
| Francesco's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 64 Carleton Ave | open |
| Great River Service Station Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 3309 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| Happy Dragon | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 89 Carleton Ave | open |
| Islip Terrace Properties Corp | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 876 Connetquot Ave | open | |
| Juicy Burger | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 876 Connetquot Ave | open |
| KC's Pizza and Wings - Islip Terrace | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian · Chicken / wings | 871 Connetquot Ave | open |
| La Roca Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · Mexican · Latin American (other) | 871 Connetquot Ave | open |
| Laugh, Love, Cupcakes | Bakery · Dessert · Café | Dessert · Coffee · Bakery | 21 Valley Stream St | open |
| Mary's Pizza and Pasta Mary's Pizza & Pasta | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 876 Connetquot Ave | open |
| Papa John's Papa John's | Quick service | 44 LOWELL AVE | open | |
| Purple Ape Brewery East | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 90 Fairview Ave | open | |
| Route 27 Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 3279 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| Scoops & Sprinkles | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 876 Connetquot Ave | open |
| Siu's Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian · American | 3283 Sunrise Hwy | open |
| Terrace Bagelry & Deli | Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop | Bakery · Sandwiches | 876 Connetquot Ave | open |
| Vansh Food Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 840 Connetquot Ave Ste 5 | open | |
| Terrace Coffee Shop | Coffee shop | Coffee | 3321 Sunrise Hwy | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 10 | 10 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 7 | 7 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 15 | 14 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 15 | 14 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 14 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 14 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 16 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 20 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 16 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 15 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 16 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 12 | 10 | — | 6 | 3 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 14 | 11 | — | 8 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 15 | 12 | — | 9 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 14 | 11 | — | 9 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 16 | 12 | — | 10 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 14 | 10 | — | 8 | — | — | NAICS2022 |