BMIE Market 11749

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,217 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±178 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,345 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,092 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$116,313 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,931 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,019 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,224 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$477,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,668 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11749
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	29.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-7.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 9–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.05) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	53 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11749. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.05, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.3	68	40%	+27.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.9	62	35%	+21.7
Market Momentum Score	53.4	53	25%	+13.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,600	55	40%	+22.1
Median household income (ACS)	116,313	89	40%	+35.6
Households (ACS)	1,217	53	20%	+10.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	33.3	17	25%	+4.3
Population (ACS)	3,600	55	20%	+11.0
Median household income (ACS)	116,313	89	20%	+17.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-7.7	20	50%	+10.2
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	200	93	20%	+18.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

Coffee 8 · Sandwiches 5 · American 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Coffee shop 7 · Quick service 7 · Café 4 · Bakery 3 · Bar 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Buffet 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amazon Cafe	Other	Sandwiches	1718 Veterans Hwy	open
Bimbo Bakeries USA	Bakery · Quick service	Bakery	2950 Express Dr S	open
Bistro 58	Bar	American	3635 Express Dr N	open
Blue Dawn Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1860 Veterans Hwy	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1340 Motor Pkwy	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service		1111 Old Nichols Rd.	open
Cafe Karlo	Café · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Coffee shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	1377 Motor Pkwy	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	1966 Veterans Memorial Hwy	open
Dunkin'	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1000 Nichols Rd	open
Islandia Buffet	Buffet	Chinese · Asian	1704 Veterans Memorial Hwy	open
Johnny's Bites	Café	Coffee	2929 Express Dr N Ste 105	open
La Slice Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1826 Veterans Hwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1850 Veterans Hwy (Walmart #2917)	open
Moe's Southwest Grill Moe's Southwest Grill	Quick service		1340 Motor Parkway	open
Mugi Sushi Hibachi and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	1708 Veterans Memorial Hwy	open
New York Bagel Co.	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	1716 Veterans Hwy	open
Panera Bread	Coffee shop	Coffee	1900A Veterans Memorial Highway	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	1864 Veterans Memorial Highway	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	1706 Veterans Hwy	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	3701 Express Dr S	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1714 Veteran's Memorial Highway	open
T.J.'s Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2929 Express Dr N	open
TGI Fridays	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		3045 Expy Dr N	open
Thai Angel Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1812 Veterans Hwy	open
Tim Hortons	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · Sandwiches	3775 Express Drive North, Old Nichols Rd	open
yogurt city	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	Vets Hwy	open
2929 Cafe Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2929 Express Dr N Ste 105	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1999	5	5	2	1	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	4	1	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	6	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	6	5	—	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	10	6	2	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	16	12	5	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	7	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	15	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	16	13	6	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	16	14	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	13	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	12	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	13	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	10	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	11	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	12	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11749. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11722	2.1 mi	44	2023
11788	2.4 mi	79	2023
11716	2.8 mi	43	2023
11779	3.0 mi	79	2023
11767	3.1 mi	23	2023
11752	3.4 mi	10	2023
11787	3.8 mi	101	2023
11755	4.5 mi	34	2023
11717	4.5 mi	58	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.