BMIE Market 11767

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,964 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,363 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,858 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±407 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,530 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,938 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$152,985 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,877 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,254 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±245 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$637,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,222 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	23 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11767
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+15.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+43.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+43.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	24 (range 19–28) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	84 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	51 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11767. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	84.0	84	40%	+33.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68.0	68	35%	+23.8
Market Momentum Score	50.5	51	25%	+12.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,964	77	40%	+30.7
Median household income (ACS)	152,985	96	40%	+38.6
Households (ACS)	4,858	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	15	59	35%	+20.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.4	51	25%	+12.9
Population (ACS)	14,964	77	20%	+15.3
Median household income (ACS)	152,985	96	20%	+19.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	15	59	30%	+17.6
20-year restaurant growth	43.8	60	20%	+12.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (35)

By cuisine

Dessert 6 · Coffee 4 · Italian 4 · Mexican 4 · American 3 · Asian 3 · Bakery 3 · Breakfast 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Pizza 3 · European 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Greek 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 5 · Quick service 4 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
4 Little Daisy’s Sourdough	Bakery	Bakery	171 Gibbs Pond Rd	open
Akropolis Greek Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · European	127 Smithtown Blvd #16	open
Boulevard Hot Bagels	Bakery	Bakery	145 Smithtown Blvd Ste 1	open
Demnico Food Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		173B Smithtown Blvd	open
Dragon Chinese Resta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	248 Smithtown Blvd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	223 Smithtown Blvd	open
El Patron Restaurant Bar And Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	490 Browns Rd	open
Empanadas and More	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	155 Smithtown Blvd	open
Fanny Cakes	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	127-10 Smithtown Blvd	open
Gino's of Nesconset	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	248 Smithtown Blvd	open
Horio Restaruant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		127 Smithtown Blvd	open
Il Trio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	292 Smithtown Blvd #4	open
ISEDA Happy Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	260 Smithtown Blvd Ste 7	open
Jeco's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	217 Smithtown Blvd	open
Jimmy's Bar and Booze	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Kushi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	127 Smithtown Blvd #23	open
Long Ireland Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		195 Smithtown Blvd	open
Long Island Bagel Cafe Long Island Bagel Cafe	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	248 Smithtown Blvd	open
Los Amigos Restaurant Taqueria & Torteria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	490 Browns Rd	open
Macayla Michaels Desserts	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	16 Roy Dr	open
Maria's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican · Latin American (other)	211 Smithtown Blvd	open
Nappi's Nook	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · American	204 Smithtown Blvd Unit 8	open
Nesconset Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	127 Smithtown Blvd	open
Ragazzi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	2950 Middle Country Rd	open
Ralph's Italian Ices of Nesconset	Dessert	Dessert · Italian	204 Smithtown Blvd	open
Señor Taco Mexican Grill & Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	297 Smithtown Blvd	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2900 Middle Country Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	465 Smithtown Blvd	open
Strong Island Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	127 Smithtown Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	173 Smithtown Blvd	open
Swirls and Twirls	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	248 Smithtown Blvd	open
The Corner Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Coffee · Burgers	204 Smithtown Blvd	open
Vito's Neighborhood Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	490 Browns Rd	open
Wei Lin 8204 Corp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		127 Smithtown Blvd Ste 23	open
Prestano Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	223 Smithtown Blvd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	19	16	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	18	16	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	17	14	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	21	19	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	21	15	8	6	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	24	18	7	10	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	20	13	5	7	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	17	13	6	6	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	18	15	10	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	19	16	11	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	20	17	9	6	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	22	18	9	7	2	2	NAICS2002
2006	16	14	8	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	14	12	7	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	15	14	7	5	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	19	17	6	9	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	22	19	7	9	3	2	NAICS2007
2011	25	21	9	9	3	3	NAICS2007
2012	26	23	9	10	4	1	NAICS2012
2013	24	20	8	8	4	2	NAICS2012
2014	30	26	10	11	5	2	NAICS2012
2015	29	25	12	8	5	2	NAICS2012
2016	30	26	10	11	5	1	NAICS2012
2017	27	23	11	8	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	26	23	10	9	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	28	24	10	8	6	—	NAICS2017
2020	27	23	10	8	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	33	27	11	10	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	28	23	8	10	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	27	23	7	11	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11767. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11755	1.7 mi	34	2023
11779	2.9 mi	79	2023
11749	3.1 mi	12	2023
11787	3.4 mi	101	2023
11720	3.7 mi	60	2023
11788	4.1 mi	79	2023
11790	4.3 mi	58	2023
11780	4.6 mi	35	2023
11716	4.9 mi	43	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.