BMIE Market 11942

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,406 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±916 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,198 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±321 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,603 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,948 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$93,710 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,330 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	54.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,327 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±184 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$844,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±48,745 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	8.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11942
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-23.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+900.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 4–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.63) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	42 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	30 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11942. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.63, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.8	68	40%	+27.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	42.4	42	35%	+14.8
Market Momentum Score	29.9	30	25%	+7.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,406	62	40%	+24.7
Median household income (ACS)	93,710	77	40%	+30.6
Households (ACS)	2,198	62	20%	+12.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-23.1	13	35%	+4.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.5	41	25%	+10.3
Population (ACS)	5,406	62	20%	+12.3
Median household income (ACS)	93,710	77	20%	+15.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 30 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	50%	+9.7
10-year restaurant growth	-23.1	13	30%	+3.8
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Chinese 2 · Japanese 2 · Pizza 2 · Sushi 2 · American 1 · BBQ 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Coffee 1 · European 1 · French 1 · Hot dogs 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Quick service 4 · Specialty food shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Asian Nation Cuisine Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		337 Montauk Hwy	open
China Delight China House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	471 Montauk Hwy	open
Cucina Family Style Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	674 Montauk Hwy	open
Deli Delight	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	615 Montauk Hwy	open
Dockers Waterside Marina & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		94 Dune Rd	open
East Quogue Pizza & Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches	424 Montauk Hwy	open
Goldbrew Goldberg's Famous Bagel of East Quogue	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	481 Montauk Hwy	open
Hamptons Farms	Restaurant (service type not stated)		412 Montauk Hwy	open
Hot Dog Beach	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	Corner of Horseblock Rd, And Peconic Ave	open
New Moon Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	524 Montauk Hwy	open
Olga's Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	690 Montauk Hwy	open
Quogue East Pub (QEP)	Bar	British / Irish pub food	530 Montauk Hwy	open
Sakura House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	540 Montauk Hwy	open
Station Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		412 Montauk Hwy	open
Stone Creek Inn Stone Creek Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · French · European	405 Montauk Hwy	open
Tony's Asian Fusion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Sushi · Japanese · Asian	337 Montauk Hwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	1	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	3	1	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	9	6	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	8	5	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	9	6	3	2	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	10	7	4	2	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	9	6	3	2	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	8	5	3	2	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	10	6	2	4	—	4	NAICS1997
2003	9	5	2	3	—	4	NAICS2002
2004	13	8	3	5	—	4	NAICS2002
2005	13	9	3	6	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	14	9	3	6	—	4	NAICS2002
2007	12	9	3	6	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	14	11	4	6	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	14	11	3	7	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	12	9	3	5	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	12	9	3	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	15	11	3	8	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	16	13	7	6	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	17	14	8	6	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	14	12	8	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	13	10	5	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	14	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11942. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11959	2.3 mi	3	2022
11946	3.0 mi	44	2023
11978	3.8 mi	38	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.