BMIE Market 11951

Suffolk County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,938 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,963 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,050 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±470 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,680 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,140 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$110,862 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,980 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,422 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±171 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$355,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,170 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 11951
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+85.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+160.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 11–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.22) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	70 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 11951. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.22, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.7	81	40%	+32.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77.7	78	35%	+27.2
Market Momentum Score	69.7	70	25%	+17.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,938	78	40%	+31.0
Median household income (ACS)	110,862	87	40%	+34.8
Households (ACS)	5,050	74	20%	+14.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	30	71	35%	+24.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.2	80	25%	+19.9
Population (ACS)	15,938	78	20%	+15.5
Median household income (ACS)	110,862	87	20%	+17.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	8.3	66	50%	+32.8
10-year restaurant growth	30	71	30%	+21.3
20-year restaurant growth	85.7	78	20%	+15.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (42)

By cuisine

Pizza 7 · Sandwiches 5 · American 4 · Bakery 4 · Italian 4 · Asian 3 · Chinese 3 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Vegan 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 26 · Quick service 8 · Bakery 5 · Bar 5 · Specialty food shop 5 · Dessert 4 · Coffee shop 2 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
7-11 Mastic Beach	Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Aliyana's Pizzeria	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	520 Mastic Rd	open
Anthony's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	520 Mastic Rd	open
Applebee's Applebee's Brasil	Casual dining · Quick service · Bar	American		open
Asadero De Pollo Y Taqueria La Fogata	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	199 Mastic Beach Rd	open
Chalet Corrales	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	199 Mastic Beach Rd	open
China Star	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	630-1 Mastic Rd	open
Crispy Crust Breads	Bakery	Bakery	412 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	490 Mastic Rd	open
Eleazers Soul Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	630 Mastic Rd	open
Empanadaville	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas	374 Neighborhood Rd	open
Fratelli’s Pizzeria & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	351 Main St	open
Fried Chicken Factory	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Halal / kosher	495 Mastic Rd	open
Good Friends Bar & Grill	Bar		625 Mastic Rd	open
Hershey's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	73 Whittier Dr	open
Hot Dog King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	412 Main St	open
Jb Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)		524 Mastic Rd	open
Linsatorr's Place	Bar		375 Neighborhood Rd	open
Los Compadres	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	412 Neighborhood Rd	open
Manhattan Bagel Manhattan Bagel	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Bakery · Coffee	388 Mastic Rd	open
Mastic Pizza & Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	520 Mastic Rd	open
Mommylou's Cheesecake	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	399 Neighborhood Rd	open
Neighborhood Country Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	73 Whittier Dr	open
New Rooster Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	389 Main St	open
New Rooster Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	389 Neighborhood Rd	open
Nino's Pizzeria & Cucina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	201 Mastic Beach Rd	open
Onofrio's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	421 Neighborhood Rd	open
Paradise Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	410 Neighborhood Rd	open
Pizza Time	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	273 Neighborhood Rd	open
RG Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	630 Mastic Rd	open
Sabor latino deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Latin American (other)	157a Commack Rd	open
Sand Bar	Bar		55 Neighborhood Rd	open
Smart Qsr Incorporated	Restaurant (service type not stated)		490 Mastic Rd	open
Smoke Shack Bbq	Food truck		490 Mastic Rd Ste A	open
Sobol	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	490 Mastic Rd	open
Star Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	157 Commack Rd	open
Sweet Moments Baking and Events	Bakery · Catering	Bakery	490A Mastic Rd	open
T J's Hero Shop	Specialty food shop · Bar · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	524 Mastic Rd	open
Tacos Leales Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		495 Mastic Rd	open
Tai Yu Chinese Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	195-A Mastic Beach Rd	open
Tai Yu Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		195A Mastic Beach Rd	open
Wayback	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	490 Mastic Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	5	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	8	5	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	11	7	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	11	8	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	10	6	1	4	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	11	7	1	4	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	14	8	1	4	2	5	NAICS1997
2001	11	8	2	3	2	3	NAICS1997
2002	11	8	2	4	2	3	NAICS1997
2003	10	7	2	4	1	3	NAICS2002
2004	12	7	2	4	1	3	NAICS2002
2005	13	8	2	4	2	3	NAICS2002
2006	12	8	3	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	11	7	3	3	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	13	9	3	5	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	14	10	3	6	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	14	11	4	6	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	13	9	3	5	1	3	NAICS2007
2012	13	9	2	7	—	3	NAICS2012
2013	15	10	3	7	—	3	NAICS2012
2014	20	13	3	9	1	4	NAICS2012
2015	16	10	2	7	1	4	NAICS2012
2016	17	11	3	7	1	4	NAICS2012
2017	18	12	3	8	—	4	NAICS2017
2018	17	12	3	8	—	4	NAICS2017
2019	18	13	4	8	—	4	NAICS2017
2020	17	12	3	8	—	4	NAICS2017
2021	17	11	3	7	—	4	NAICS2017
2022	17	12	3	8	—	4	NAICS2022
2023	17	13	—	9	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 11951. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
11950	2.8 mi	12	2023
11967	3.3 mi	51	2023
11934	3.3 mi	25	2023
11955	3.4 mi	6	2023
11719	3.8 mi	3	2022

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.