BMIE Market 14051

Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	19,739 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,193 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,007 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±498 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	19,533 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,476 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$135,663 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,099 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,864 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±92 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$421,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,853 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	15.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	37 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14051
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+5.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+27.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+60.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+85.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	41 (range 37–44) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.63) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	66 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14051. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.63, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	86.4	86	40%	+34.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69.5	69	35%	+24.3
Market Momentum Score	66.2	66	25%	+16.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	19,739	81	40%	+32.5
Median household income (ACS)	135,663	94	40%	+37.7
Households (ACS)	8,007	81	20%	+16.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	27.6	69	35%	+24.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.7	41	25%	+10.2
Population (ACS)	19,739	81	20%	+16.2
Median household income (ACS)	135,663	94	20%	+18.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	5.7	62	50%	+31.1
10-year restaurant growth	27.6	69	30%	+20.8
20-year restaurant growth	60.9	71	20%	+14.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (62)

By cuisine

American 10 · Dessert 9 · Italian 8 · Pizza 8 · Coffee 7 · Bakery 5 · Mexican 5 · Mediterranean 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Healthy / salads / bowls 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Asian 2 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Middle Eastern 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · European 1 · Greek 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 30 · Dessert 10 · Bar 9 · Quick service 9 · Bakery 8 · Casual dining 7 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Catering 2 · Fast casual 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Almaza Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern · Mediterranean	9370 Transit Rd	open
Alpine Sweets Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	Gray Birch Ct	open
Andale Lounge Andale 1 Mexican Restaurant	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	9430 Transit Rd	open
Aperitivo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	9430 Transit Rd	open
Aroma on North French	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	4840 N French Rd	open
Campobello's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	9334 Transit Rd	open
Chester's Cajun Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	9416 Transit Rd # 2215	open
China King Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	9648 Transit Rd	open
D'Avolio D'Avolio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	9570 Transit Rd	open
Dessert Cafe	Dessert	Dessert	4500 N French Rd	open
Dimples Pancakes	Food truck			open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	6031 Transit Rd	open
Duke's Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		5841 Transit Rd	open
Falletta's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	8255 Clarence Center Rd	open
Feature Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls	9310 Transit Rd	open
Genevieve's Cheesecakes & Bake Shop	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5845 Transit Rd	open
Grill Kabob	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	9380 Transit Rd	open
Grovers Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	9160 Transit Rd	open
Jim's Steakout Jim's Restaurants	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	5651 Transit Rd	open
Johnny LaBella's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Pizza · Healthy / salads / bowls	9414 Transit Rd	open
Jonny C's NY Deli and Caterers	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	9350 Transit Rd	open
Juan Paz Jr	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9416 Transit Rd	open
Juanes Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	9416 Transit Rd	open
Kaylena Marie's Bakery	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	9320 Transit Rd #100	open
Kvajacobbi Inc Carmine S	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9430 Transit Rd	open
Lil' Jenny's Ice Cream	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	9950 Transit Rd	open
Luigi's Pizza and Catering	Catering	Pizza · Italian	9950 Transit Rd	open
Maharaja Indian restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	9416 Transit Rd	open
Maizal Mexican Kitchen and Mezcaleria	Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	4840 N French Rd	open
Mighty Taco Mighty Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	9360 Transit Rd	open
Molinaro's On The Go	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza	8555 Transit Rd	open
Mpr Restaurants Of Wny Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9210 Transit Rd	open
My Corner Pub Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5989 Transit Rd Ste 100	open
Old Date Cafe House	Café	Coffee	Room No. C.3, Market Garden Shopping Mall,	open
Papa Johns Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8584B TRANSIT RD	open
Parkside Candy	Dessert	Dessert	8625 Transit Rd	open
Pautler's Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6343 Transit Rd	open
Pie-O-Mine Pie-O-Mine / Greens	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Pizza · Healthy / salads / bowls	9430 Transit Rd	open
Pietro's Ristorante & Martini Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	5841 Transit Rd	open
Pita Gourmet Pita Gourmet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · American	6031 Transit Rd	open
Samurai Buffalo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	9648 Transit Rd	open
Schnitzel & Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	9210 Transit Rd	open
SMOOTEA Beverage + Dessert	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Dessert · Juice / smoothies	9388 Transit Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	9660 Transit Rd	open
Stockman's Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	9870 Transit Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	9648 Transit Rd Ste 350	open
Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	9660 Transit Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service		6599 Transit Rd	open
Tacos, Community & Beer	Bar	Mexican	6449 Transit Rd	open
TCB	Bar	Southwestern / Tex-Mex	6449 Transit Rd	open
The Dessert Deli	Bakery	Bakery	6429 Transit Rd	open
The Oak Stave Drinkery and Eatery	Casual dining · Bar	American	5989 Transit Rd	open
The Rock Kitchen And Bar	Casual dining · Bar	American	6261 Transit Rd	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	5989 Transit Rd	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	9590 Transit Rd	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	11520 Transit Rd	open
Unbridled Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	9380 Transit Rd	open
Vito E Vino	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	9210 Transit Rd	open
Watson's Chocolates Watson's Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	9368 Transit Rd	open
Yolo Restaurant And Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5841 Transit Rd	open
Zoe Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean · European	5701 Transit Rd	open
The Stuffed Hot Pepper Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9370 Transit Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	21	20	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	25	23	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	20	19	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	21	20	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	16	14	6	8	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	17	14	6	8	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	21	17	9	7	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	21	17	7	8	2	2	NAICS1997
2002	27	25	12	11	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	25	23	11	10	2	2	NAICS2002
2004	22	20	10	9	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	23	21	11	9	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	24	23	11	11	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	26	24	12	10	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	26	23	11	10	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	27	23	12	9	2	3	NAICS2007
2010	27	24	12	9	3	2	NAICS2007
2011	29	26	13	10	3	2	NAICS2007
2012	30	27	11	13	3	2	NAICS2012
2013	33	29	13	13	3	2	NAICS2012
2014	32	29	12	13	4	2	NAICS2012
2015	34	31	14	13	4	2	NAICS2012
2016	38	35	14	15	6	2	NAICS2012
2017	39	36	16	15	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	38	35	18	13	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	37	34	17	14	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	36	33	17	13	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	37	34	16	15	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	40	38	17	16	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	39	37	15	18	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14051. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14068	3.2 mi	19	2023
14032	3.4 mi	6	2023
14228	3.9 mi	58	2023
14221	4.2 mi	174	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.