BMIE Market 14068
Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 8,636 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,071 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 3,366 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±327 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 7,150 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 2,991 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $98,750 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,084 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 45.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,475 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±186 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $365,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,319 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 3.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 19 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14068 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 26.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -5.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -13.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +26.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +35.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 15 (range 13–17) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.5 per year, r² 0.79) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 73 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 44 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 26 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14068. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.79, confidence High.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 73.2 | 73 | 40% | +29.3 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 43.6 | 44 | 35% | +15.3 |
| Market Momentum Score | 26.3 | 26 | 25% | +6.6 |
Consumer Market Score: 73 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 8,636 | 69 | 40% | +27.4 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 98,750 | 80 | 40% | +32.1 |
| Households (ACS) | 3,366 | 69 | 20% | +13.7 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 44 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -13.6 | 16 | 35% | +5.8 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 22 | 32 | 25% | +8.1 |
| Population (ACS) | 8,636 | 69 | 20% | +13.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 98,750 | 80 | 20% | +16.0 |
Market Momentum Score: 26 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -5 | 23 | 50% | +11.3 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -13.6 | 16 | 30% | +5.0 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 26.7 | 50 | 20% | +10.0 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (34)
By cuisine
American 6 · Pizza 6 · Coffee 5 · Asian 4 · Dessert 4 · Halal / kosher 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Bakery 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Greek 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1 · Vietnamese 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 6 · Quick service 6 · Bakery 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 4 · Café 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Forks Up | Casual dining · Bar | Seafood · American | 270 Campbell Blvd | open |
| Amherst Pizza and Ale House | Bar · Casual dining | Pizza | 55 Crosspoint Pkwy | open |
| Besta Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2343 Millersport Hwy | open |
| BK Gourmet | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery | Halal / kosher · Bakery | 2640 N Forest Rd | open |
| Buffalo Halal Kabab & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Halal / kosher · Asian · Sushi · Japanese | 2359 Millersport Hwy | open |
| Buffalo NY Area | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | Chicken / wings | Sean Patrick’s 3480 Millersport Hwy | open |
| Bullseye Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · American | 2343 Millersport Hwy | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | 2515 Millersport Hwy | open |
| Burrito Bay | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 2341 Millersport Hwy | open |
| Chinese Cookery | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 2355 Millersport Hwy | open |
| ClayOven Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Indian | 2343 Millersport Hwy | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 55 Cross Point Pkwy Suite 100 | open |
| Elmo's Elmo's | Casual dining · Bar | Chicken / wings | 2349 Millersport Hwy | open |
| Halal Hot N Fresh | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Halal / kosher · American | 2359 Millersport Hwy | open |
| John & Mary's | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 2363 Millersport Hwy | open |
| John's Pizza & Subs John's Pizza & Subs | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 680 Campbell Blvd | open |
| Lebro's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Italian · American | 330 Campbell Blvd | open |
| Nina's Custard | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 2577 Millersport Hwy | open |
| Oak Stave Drinkery and Eatery | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 2775 Millersport Hwy | open | |
| Olympia Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Greek | 55 Crosspoint Pkwy | open |
| Pho Cafe | Café | Vietnamese · Coffee · Asian | 2351 Millersport Hwy | open |
| Pizza Works | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2343 Millersport Hwy | open |
| Rachel's Mediterranean Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 35 Crosspoint Pkwy | open | |
| Sean Patrick's Restaurant | Bar · Casual dining | British / Irish pub food | 3480 Millersport Hwy | open |
| Speedy Burrito | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 2206 Millersport Hwy | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 1555 N French Rd | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 2325 Millersport Hwy | open |
| Sun Garden | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian · Thai | 55 Crosspoint Pkwy Ste #118 | open |
| Sunny's Drive-in Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2577 Millersport Hwy | open | |
| Taste of Lebanon | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern · Mediterranean · American | 2224 Millersport Hwy | open |
| Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop | Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 1555 N French Rd | open |
| Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop | Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 2290 Millersport Hwy | open |
| Tim Hortons | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Quick service · Café | Coffee | 300 Crosspoint Pkwy | open |
| Westmoreland Capital Corporation | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2350 N Forest Rd | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 15 | 14 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 15 | 14 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 20 | 19 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 19 | 18 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 21 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 20 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 21 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 18 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 19 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 22 | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 21 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 19 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 1 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 23 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 21 | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 22 | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 21 | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 23 | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 24 | 22 | 6 | 13 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 26 | 23 | 6 | 14 | 3 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 24 | 21 | 6 | 13 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 24 | 21 | 6 | 13 | 2 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 23 | 20 | 6 | 12 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 23 | 20 | 7 | 11 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 22 | 19 | 5 | 12 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 21 | 18 | 5 | 11 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 20 | 17 | 5 | 10 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 21 | 18 | 6 | 10 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 21 | 19 | 6 | 11 | — | — | NAICS2022 |