BMIE Market 14219
Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 10,652 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±738 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 5,213 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±365 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 11,536 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 5,416 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $78,569 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,803 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 47.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $957 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±50 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $192,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,286 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 6.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 54 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14219 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 37.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +5.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +3.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +35.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +54.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 46 (range 39–53) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.5 per year, r² 0.20) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 46 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 57 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14219. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.20, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 67.8 | 68 | 40% | +27.1 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 45.9 | 46 | 35% | +16.1 |
| Market Momentum Score | 57.1 | 57 | 25% | +14.3 |
Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 10,652 | 72 | 40% | +28.7 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 78,569 | 60 | 40% | +24.1 |
| Households (ACS) | 5,213 | 75 | 20% | +15.0 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 46 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 3.9 | 49 | 35% | +17.1 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 50.7 | 9 | 25% | +2.4 |
| Population (ACS) | 10,652 | 72 | 20% | +14.4 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 78,569 | 60 | 20% | +12.0 |
Market Momentum Score: 57 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 5.9 | 62 | 50% | +31.2 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 3.9 | 49 | 30% | +14.7 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 35 | 56 | 20% | +11.2 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (96)
By cuisine
American 16 · Coffee 12 · Sandwiches 11 · Bakery 10 · Dessert 7 · Burgers 6 · Pizza 6 · Chicken / wings 5 · Asian 4 · Italian 4 · Mexican 4 · Healthy / salads / bowls 3 · Japanese 3 · Seafood 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Sushi 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chinese 1 · Greek 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vegetarian 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 48 · Quick service 19 · Bar 12 · Casual dining 12 · Bakery 10 · Café 9 · Dessert 9 · Coffee shop 7 · Other 4 · Fast casual 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aguacates Mexican Cantina | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 3540 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Apa's Kitchen & More | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3701 Mckinley Pkwy | open | |
| Apollo Family Restaurant | Casual dining | American | 3387 S Park Ave | open |
| Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 4405 Milestrip Rd | open |
| Arby's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3701 McKinley Pkwy Ste #418 Ste #418 | open | |
| Auntie Anne's | Dessert · Quick service | Dessert | 120 McKinley Mall | open |
| Auntie Anne's Auntie Anne's | Bakery · Quick service | Bakery | 120 Mc Kinley Mall 3701 S Mc Kinley Pkwy | open |
| Bases Loaded | Casual dining · Bar | 3355 Lake Shore Rd | open | |
| Bedrock Eatery | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4038 Hoover Rd | open | |
| Black Iron Bystro | Casual dining | 3648 South Park Ave | open | |
| Blasdell Pizza and Subs Blasdell Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Sandwiches | 3904 S Park Ave | open |
| Buffalo Road Catering | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4409 S Park Ave | open | |
| Buffalo Style | Bar | Chicken / wings | 67 Grafton Ave | open |
| Buffalo Wild Wings | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 3540 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Buffalo's Best Bakery | Bakery · Dessert · Café | Bakery · Dessert · Coffee | 4510 Lake Ave | open |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service | Burgers · American | S-4175 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| BW's Smokin' Barrels Barbecue | Casual dining · Bar | BBQ · American | 5007 Lake Ave | open |
| Catering by Marjorie | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Bakery | 3701 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Cedar's Pita Pockets | Quick service | Mediterranean · Greek | 3701 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Chairman's Circle Vacation | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Caribbean | 4976 Roseview Ave | open |
| Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A | Quick service | Chicken / wings · American | 3464 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| China King Restaurant China King | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 4271 Lake Ave #9 | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex | 4405 Milestrip Rd Ste 5 | open |
| Comfort Zone Coffee Center | Café | Coffee | 3701 McKinley Pkwy Unit 217 | open |
| CoreLife Eatery CoreLife Eatery | Fast casual | Healthy / salads / bowls · Vegetarian | 3670 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Dave's Hot Chicken Dave's Hot Chicken | Quick service | 3560 Mckinley Parkway | open | |
| El Canelo | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 3670 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 4405 Milestrip Rd | open |
| Five Guys Five Guys | Quick service | Burgers · American | 3860 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Fran-Ceil Custard | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 3411 South Park Ave | open |
| Friendly's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3540 Mckinley Pkwy | open | |
| Fuji Grill II Fuji Grill 2 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Asian | 4151 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Gloria Jean's Gourmet Coffees | Coffee shop | Coffee | 3701 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Hokkaido Ramen House and Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Noodles / ramen / pho | 3860 McKinley Pkwy Ste 260 | open |
| Ichiban Japanese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 3701 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Ilio DiPaolo's Restaurant & Banquet Facility | Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 3785 South Park Ave | open |
| Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs | Quick service · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 3670 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Juicy Seafood Mckinley Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3540 McKinley Pkwy | open | |
| Kaz's | Bar | 113 Lake Ave | open | |
| King Crab | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 3540 Mckinley Pkwy Ste 12 | open |
| Lago 210 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4038 Hoover Rd | open | |
| Lake Ave Service Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4490 Lake Ave | open | |
| Lake Erie Dock Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3800 Hoover Rd | open | |
| Lakeshore Cafe | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Coffee · American | 3255 Lake Shore Rd | open |
| Lily's Pad | Dessert | Dessert | 79 Lake Ave | open |
| MarcieMacari | Bakery | Bakery | open | |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 3450 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Mongolian Buffet | Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Asian | 3513 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Nineteen Coffee | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 3701 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Odyssey Family Restaurant | Casual dining | American | 3933 S Park Ave | open |
| Off The Wall Sandwich Company | Other | Sandwiches · Burgers · American | 4154 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Olive Garden | Fast casual · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Healthy / salads / bowls | 3701 Mckinley Pkwy | open |
| Olive Garden Italian Restaurant Olive Garden | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 3701 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Outback Steakhouse Outback Steakhouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse · American | 3670 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Palace Of Sweets | Dessert | 3701 Mckinley Pkwy Unit 714 | open | |
| Panera Bread Panera Bread | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee | 3701 McKinley Parkway | open |
| Parkside Candy | Dessert | Dessert | 3701 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Pasqually's Pizza & Wings P516 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 4408 Milestrip Rd | open |
| Picasso's Pizza Picasso's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian · American | 4154 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Pizza Hut | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3497 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 3670 McKinley Parkway | open |
| Rachel's Mediterranean Grill Rachel's Mediterranean Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean · Sandwiches | 3860 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Red Lobster | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 3701 Mckinley Pkwy | open |
| Rocko's Tacos | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 86 Lake Ave | open |
| Ron & Andy's Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 205 Martin Ave | open | |
| Ruby Tuesday | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 3454 Mckinley Pkwy | open |
| Rust Belt Bar and Grill | Casual dining · Bar | American · Seafood | 3720 Lake Shore Rd Ste 1 | open |
| Schifano's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | 3379 Lake Shore Rd | open |
| Sneaker's | Casual dining · Bar | 205 Martin Ave Apartment 1 | open | |
| Southtowns Pizza Company | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4510 Lake Ave | open | |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 3540 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 3670 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 4151 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| SUBWAY | Other | Sandwiches | 3701 McKinley Pkwy Unit 422 | open |
| SUBWAY | Other | Sandwiches | 4408 Milestrip Rd | open |
| Sugar Swap Bakeshop | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 4220 South Park Ave | open |
| Swirl Bakery | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 5037 Lake Ave | open |
| TCBY | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 3860 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Tea Leaf Cafe | Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop | Coffee · Tea / bubble tea | 3835 McKinley Pkwy Suite 4 | open |
| Team Freight Inc. | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3774 Hoover Rd | open | |
| TGI Fridays | Fast casual · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Healthy / salads / bowls | 3701 Mckinley Pkwy Unit 1120 | open |
| The Cowboy On The Lake | Casual dining · Bar | American | 3800 Hoover Rd | open |
| The New ARON'z Pub Blasdell | Bar | 67 Grafton Ave | open | |
| The New Four Aces | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 3314 Lake Shore Rd | open | |
| The Original Warehouse | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Chicken / wings · Sandwiches · Pizza | 4360 S Milestrip Rd | open |
| The Poppyseed Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 3670 McKinley Pkwy # 23 | open |
| Thomas E. Tehan American Legion Post 1449 Blasdell | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | open | ||
| Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop | Coffee shop · Quick service · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 3638 S Park Ave | open |
| Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop | Coffee shop · Quick service · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 4408 Milestrip Rd | open |
| Tony's Bayview Drive-In | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Hot dogs | 3804 Lake Shore Rd | open |
| Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe | Juice, smoothie, tea · Quick service · Café | Juice / smoothies · Coffee | 3670 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 3513 McKinley Pkwy | open |
| Woodlawn Diner | Casual dining | American · Breakfast | 3200 Lake Shore Rd | open |
| Woodlawn Pizzeria and Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Pizza · Sandwiches | 3306 Lake Shore Rd | open |
| Southpark Beverages | Bar | 3875 S Park Ave | closed | |
| Yankee BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3379 Lake Shore Road | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 41 | 35 | — | — | — | 6 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 38 | 32 | — | — | — | 6 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 51 | 42 | — | — | — | 9 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 52 | 44 | — | — | — | 8 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 55 | 45 | 19 | 22 | 4 | 6 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 51 | 43 | 20 | 20 | 3 | 5 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 51 | 43 | 20 | 20 | 3 | 5 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 48 | 39 | 18 | 19 | 2 | 6 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 46 | 39 | 17 | 18 | 3 | 6 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 49 | 40 | 20 | 16 | 3 | 6 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 50 | 41 | 19 | 18 | 3 | 6 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 49 | 40 | 17 | 18 | 5 | 6 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 46 | 38 | 20 | 14 | 4 | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 50 | 41 | 19 | 19 | 3 | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 46 | 37 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 7 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 46 | 38 | 16 | 17 | 4 | 7 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 50 | 43 | 18 | 19 | 5 | 6 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 55 | 49 | 21 | 21 | 6 | 5 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 54 | 48 | 20 | 19 | 9 | 5 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 59 | 52 | 23 | 21 | 8 | 6 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 62 | 56 | 25 | 23 | 8 | 5 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 62 | 56 | 25 | 24 | 7 | 5 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 58 | 51 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 6 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 57 | 53 | 25 | 21 | 6 | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 55 | 51 | 23 | 23 | 4 | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 52 | 48 | 24 | 19 | 4 | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 53 | 47 | 22 | 20 | 4 | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 51 | 45 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 58 | 52 | 24 | 21 | 6 | 4 | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 59 | 54 | 23 | 22 | 8 | 3 | NAICS2022 |