BMIE Market 14220

Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	24,428 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,831 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,435 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±585 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	24,227 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,117 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$70,963 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,359 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,060 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±59 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$186,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,366 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	29 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14220
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+16.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+31.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+3.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	32 (range 28–36) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.58) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	49 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14220. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.58, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.6	71	40%	+28.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63.7	64	35%	+22.3
Market Momentum Score	49.3	49	25%	+12.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	24,428	85	40%	+33.9
Median household income (ACS)	70,963	49	40%	+19.4
Households (ACS)	10,435	86	20%	+17.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	16	59	35%	+20.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.9	65	25%	+16.3
Population (ACS)	24,428	85	20%	+17.0
Median household income (ACS)	70,963	49	20%	+9.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	16	59	30%	+17.8
20-year restaurant growth	31.8	53	20%	+10.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (77)

By cuisine

Pizza 13 · Sandwiches 9 · American 7 · Dessert 7 · British / Irish pub food 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 5 · Coffee 4 · Burgers 3 · Italian 3 · Mexican 3 · Bakery 2 · Asian 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 34 · Bar 26 · Quick service 19 · Casual dining 10 · Dessert 10 · Specialty food shop 7 · Bakery 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
911 Tavern	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Bar	Coffee		open
Abbott Ice Cream -n- Stuff	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	368 Abbott Rd	open
Abbott Rd Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Pizza	1177 Abbott Rd	open
Apollo Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		423 Hopkins St	open
Avenue Pub	Bar		2113 S Park Ave	open
Black Dog's Tavern	Bar		2015 South Park Ave	open
Blarney Castle	Casual dining · Bar	American	1856 South Park Ave	open
Brick Oven Bistro	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches	904 Abbott Rd	open
Buffalo Irish Center	Bar	British / Irish pub food	245 Abbott Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	2335 South Park Ave	open
Can You Digg It	Bar		317 Hopkins St	open
Chick-n-pizza Works	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	129 Abbott Rd	open
City Line Munch Eatery	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2412 S Park Ave	open
Conlon's Bar & Grill	Bar		386 Abbott Rd	open
D.A. Breakfast	Restaurant (service type not stated)		368 Abbott Rd	open
D.a. Taste	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	141 Abbott Rd	open
Dairy Queen (Treat) Dairy Queen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1102 Abbott Rd	open
Doc Sullivan's	Bar	British / Irish pub food	474 Abbott Rd	open
Eastern European Women	Bar		117 Ridgewood Road,Buffalo	open
Egg Rollz LLC	Quick service			open
Fra Amici Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	615 Hopkins St	open
Gino and Joes South Buffalo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	141 Abbott Rd	open
Gordon’s Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		382 Abbott Rd	open
Griffin's Irish Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		81 Abbott Rd	open
Hopkins Enterprises Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		363 Hopkins St	open
Imperial Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1035 Abbott Rd	open
Inter Utrumque Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		382 Abbott Rd	open
Jacobi's Restaurant & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	141 Abbott Rd 141	open
Jo Jo's Pizza and Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	528 Abbott Rd	open
Jordans Ale House	Bar		107 Abbott Rd	open
Just Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2249 S Park Ave	open
Kej Pizza Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1177 Abbott Rd	open
Kellie's Sports Lounge	Bar		1803 South Park Ave	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	170 Abbott Road	open
Ko-Ed Candies	Dessert · Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	285 Abbott Rd	open
Kupkates Llc	Bakery	Bakery	956 Abbott Rd	open
Lawrence's Pub	Bar · Casual dining		129 Maryon Dr	open
Ld's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2249 S Park Ave 2249	open
McChurley's Underground Pub	Bar		424 Cumberland Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1028 McKinley Pkwy	open
Mighty Taco Mighty Taco	Quick service	Mexican	1039 McKinley Pkwy	open
Mineo's South Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2154 South Park Ave	open
Mister Submarine	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza	1977 South Park Ave	open
Molly Maguires	Bar	British / Irish pub food	834 Abbott Rd	open
Mr Softee	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1685 S Park Ave	open
Nadeem's Grocery & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2082 S Park Ave	open
New Hong Kong Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2048 South Park Ave	open
Nine-Eleven Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	11 Bloomfield Ave	open
Not Just Cakes	Restaurant (service type not stated)		381 Abbott Rd	open
Pam's Custard Corner	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2190 South Park Ave	open
Park Edge Sweet Shoppe	Dessert	Dessert	325 Abbott Rd	open
Perfect Shot Sports Bar	Bar		2426 S Park Ave	open
Pitch Bar	Bar		1216 S Park Ave	open
Potters Field Restaurant and Pub	Bar · Casual dining	British / Irish pub food	425 Potters Rd	open
Pour Choices	Bar		107 Abbott Rd	open
Pub Lori	Bar		2115 S Park Ave	open
Rachel's Mediterranean Grill - Pittsford	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	5 State St	open
Sorrento Lactalis	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2375 S Park Ave	open
Soul Food To The Bone feat. Momma Dean’s greens	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	317 Hopkins St	open
South City Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		1345 South Park Ave	open
South Park mart inc	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2082 South Park Ave	open
South Park Pizza and Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches	1727 S Park Ave	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	565 Abbott Rd, 3rd Floor	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	363 Hopkins St	open
Talty's Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		2056 S Park Ave	open
Tasty Healthlicious LLC	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	1983 South Park Ave	open
The Celtic Table	Bar	British / Irish pub food	245 Abbott Rd	open
The Pub	Bar · Casual dining		2113 South Park Ave	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	1176 South Park Avenue	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	360 Choate Ave	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	2200 South Park Ave	open
Tropical Paradise Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1586 S Park Ave	open
Urban Pita Co.	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	2124 S Park Ave	open
Valle of Mexico	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1586 South Park Ave	open
Wayside Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2301 South Park Ave	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	969 Mckinley Pkwy	open
Old Triangle Inc	Bar		1345 S Park Ave	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	41	28	—	—	—	13	SIC1987
1995	41	29	—	—	—	12	SIC1987
1996	38	27	—	—	—	11	SIC1987
1997	45	31	—	—	—	14	SIC1987
1998	39	23	6	17	—	10	NAICS1997
1999	34	19	5	13	1	9	NAICS1997
2000	38	21	4	16	1	10	NAICS1997
2001	38	21	4	17	—	12	NAICS1997
2002	42	23	7	14	2	14	NAICS1997
2003	42	22	7	14	1	15	NAICS2002
2004	37	21	7	13	1	12	NAICS2002
2005	37	21	7	12	2	11	NAICS2002
2006	37	21	9	9	3	10	NAICS2002
2007	37	20	8	10	2	12	NAICS2002
2008	42	26	9	15	2	12	NAICS2007
2009	44	30	9	18	3	12	NAICS2007
2010	46	27	11	14	2	13	NAICS2007
2011	44	23	8	13	2	14	NAICS2007
2012	45	25	9	15	1	13	NAICS2012
2013	46	25	9	14	2	13	NAICS2012
2014	45	25	9	15	1	12	NAICS2012
2015	43	23	11	11	1	13	NAICS2012
2016	42	25	11	13	1	10	NAICS2012
2017	44	30	11	16	3	9	NAICS2017
2018	43	29	11	15	3	9	NAICS2017
2019	42	28	11	12	5	9	NAICS2017
2020	42	29	11	13	5	8	NAICS2017
2021	40	29	10	15	4	7	NAICS2017
2022	39	29	13	13	3	5	NAICS2022
2023	39	29	14	13	—	6	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14220. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14210	1.2 mi	28	2023
14218	1.9 mi	19	2023
14203	2.4 mi	45	2023
14206	2.5 mi	25	2023
14204	3.2 mi	16	2023
14212	3.4 mi	15	2023
14202	3.7 mi	64	2023
14224	3.8 mi	56	2023
14219	3.9 mi	54	2023
14211	4.2 mi	10	2023
14227	4.6 mi	18	2023
14201	4.9 mi	28	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.