BMIE Market 14204
Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 7,932 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±746 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 4,353 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±427 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 8,691 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 5,000 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $28,182 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,299 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 44.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $851 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±55 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $152,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±46,585 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 1.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14204 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 8.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +60.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +166.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +77.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 18 (range 16–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.81) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 42 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 86 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14204. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.81, confidence High.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 42.1 | 42 | 40% | +16.8 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 53.2 | 53 | 35% | +18.6 |
| Market Momentum Score | 86.3 | 86 | 25% | +21.6 |
Consumer Market Score: 42 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 7,932 | 67 | 40% | +26.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 28,182 | 2 | 40% | +0.7 |
| Households (ACS) | 4,353 | 72 | 20% | +14.5 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 60 | 86 | 35% | +30.1 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 20.2 | 37 | 25% | +9.2 |
| Population (ACS) | 7,932 | 67 | 20% | +13.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 28,182 | 2 | 20% | +0.4 |
Market Momentum Score: 86 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 33.3 | 85 | 50% | +42.5 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 60 | 86 | 30% | +25.8 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 166.7 | 90 | 20% | +18.0 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (64)
By cuisine
American 14 · Coffee 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Bakery 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Pizza 3 · BBQ 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · African 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · European 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Vegetarian 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 31 · Bar 22 · Casual dining 13 · Brewery / taproom 5 · Quick service 5 · Bakery 4 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 2
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adolf's Old First Ward Tavern | Bar | British / Irish pub food | 555 South Park Ave | open |
| Ballyhoo | Casual dining · Bar | 211 South Park Ave | open | |
| Belt Line Brewery & Kitchen | Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar | 545 Swan St | open | |
| Big Norwegian Kombucha | Bar | 500 Seneca St | open | |
| Brewing News | Brewery / taproom | 571 S Park Ave | open | |
| Buffalo Brewing Company | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 314 Myrtle Ave | open | |
| Buffalo Deep Dish | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | open | |
| Buffalo's Best Cucina | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 65 Vandalia St | open |
| Carbone's Pizza & Subs | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Sandwiches | 568 South Park Ave | open |
| Chef's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · American | 291 Seneca St | open |
| Dinny's Place | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 372 William St | open | |
| DITONDO | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Italian · American | 370 Seneca St | open |
| Dobutsu | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 500 Seneca St | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop | Dessert · Coffee · Bakery | 180 Perry St | open |
| Durham’s Maternal Stress-Free Zone DH Inc | Café | Coffee | 200 E Eagle St | open |
| Eight Buffalo Spirits Llc. | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 41 Columbia St | open | |
| Fairmont Creamery | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 199 Scott St | open |
| Famous Corner | Bar | 16 S Cedar St | open | |
| Four One Six | Bar | 416 William St | open | |
| Frequentem Brewing Co. Buffalo | Brewery / taproom · Bar | 225 Louisiana St | open | |
| FrumScratch LLC | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 883 Jefferson Ave | open |
| Gene McCarthy's Old First Ward Brewing Company | Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | 73 Hamburg St | open | |
| Hanai Hawaiian BBQ | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · Hawaiian / Pacific | 314 Myrtle Ave | open |
| Hartman's Distilling Co. | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 55 Chicago St | open | |
| High Street Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 195 High St | open |
| Hofbrauhaus Buffalo | Casual dining · Bar | German / Eastern European · European | 190 Scott St | open |
| Island Mix | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Caribbean · American | 883 Jefferson Ave | open |
| Krispy Krunchy Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 418 S Park Ave | open |
| La Esquina Famosa | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | Latin American (other) | 16 S Cedar St | open |
| Lakeward Spirits | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 65 Vandalia St | open | |
| Lemon & Lemon | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 490 Broadway | open |
| Lockhouse Distillery & Bar | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 41 Columbia St | open | |
| Macarollin' | Food truck | open | ||
| Mandella Gyro King | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American · Halal / kosher | 525 Broadway | open |
| Mazurek's Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 543 S Park Ave | open |
| Mccullagh Coffee | Coffee shop | Coffee | 245 Swan St | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 453 William St | open |
| Meme's Place | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 173 High St | open | |
| Milo's | Casual dining | American · Sandwiches | 126 Michigan Ave | open |
| Mr Kones | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | BBQ | 893 Jefferson Ave | open |
| Myracle's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 200 William St | open |
| Nuco Meister Enterprises | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 571 S Park Ave | open | |
| Old Arthurs Pub | Bar | 596 Genesee St | open | |
| Old First Ward Brewing Co Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 571 S Park Ave | open | |
| Oowee Drinks & Juices | Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 500 Seneca St #5-3 | open |
| Phillips Seafood | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · African | 1 Fulton St | open |
| Progress Food Market | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 289 Hamburg St | open |
| Seneca St Atrium | Bar | 500 Seneca St | open | |
| Sevens | Café · Coffee shop · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 225 Louisiana St | open |
| Shy's Downtown Steak Shop | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other | Sandwiches · American | 397 Jefferson Ave | open |
| Snowy Owl Kombucha | Café | Coffee | 65 Vandalia St | open |
| SuggaDs | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 883 Jefferson Ave Ste D | open |
| Sunshine Vegan Eats | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vegetarian · American | 893 Jefferson Ave | open |
| Ted's Jumbo Red Hots, Inc. | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 301 Ohio St Ste 200 | open | |
| The Brick | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 126 Michigan Ave | open |
| The Buffalo Bar & Grill | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 307 Louisiana St | open | |
| The Creek Restaurant | Casual dining · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Steakhouse · American | 1 Fulton St | open |
| The Lunch Box | Other · Café · Bakery · Dessert | Sandwiches · Coffee · Bakery · Dessert | 500 Seneca St | open |
| The Mahony at The Fairmont | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 199 Scott St | open |
| The Rose Bar Buffalo | Casual dining · Bar | American | 199 Scott St | open |
| The Soul Place | Casual dining · Bar | Cajun, Creole, Southern | 479 Genesee St | open |
| The Sweet Hearth | Food truck | open | ||
| Tipsy Tiki Boat Co | Bar | 301 Ohio St | open | |
| Tommyrotter Distillery | Winery / distillery / taproom | 500 Seneca St Ste 110 | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 17 | 9 | — | — | — | 8 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 15 | 7 | — | — | — | 8 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 16 | 8 | — | — | — | 8 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 10 | 7 | — | — | — | 3 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 5 | — | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 7 | — | 3 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 4 | — | 4 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 3 | — | 4 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 4 | — | 4 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 4 | — | 4 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 4 | — | 4 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 4 | — | 4 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 5 | — | 3 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 6 | — | 4 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 5 | — | 4 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 5 | — | 5 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 17 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 4 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 4 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 4 | — | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 5 | — | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 6 | — | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 17 | 14 | 8 | 5 | — | 3 | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 5 | — | 4 | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 22 | 16 | 9 | 5 | — | 5 | NAICS2022 |