BMIE Market 14208

Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,572 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,304 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,727 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±454 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,125 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,594 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$48,476 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,327 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	30.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$967 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±44 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$130,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,709 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14208
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-40.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-62.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-70.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	1 (range 0–3) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2012–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.67) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	36 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	5 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14208. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2012–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.67, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	49.5	50	40%	+19.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	43.7	44	35%	+15.3
Market Momentum Score	5.3	5	25%	+1.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,572	74	40%	+29.6
Median household income (ACS)	48,476	13	40%	+5.2
Households (ACS)	4,727	73	20%	+14.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	35%	+1.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.4	99	25%	+24.6
Population (ACS)	12,572	74	20%	+14.8
Median household income (ACS)	48,476	13	20%	+2.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 5 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-40	7	50%	+3.5
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	30%	+1.4
20-year restaurant growth	-62.5	2	20%	+0.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

Coffee 3 · Chinese 2 · Sandwiches 2 · American 1 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Caribbean 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bar 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Buffet 1 · Casual dining 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bird Cage	Bar		475 Northampton St	open
Buffalo's Golden Corner	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1715 Jefferson Ave	open
Canisius Dining	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian	80 Hughes Ave	open
Dagwood's and More	Other	Sandwiches	1832 Main St	open
Economou Dining Hall	Buffet		2001 Main St	open
Em Tea Coffeecup Cafe	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	80 Oakgrove Ave	open
Ennovy Sweets	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	248 Glenwood Ave	open
Golden Cup Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1323 Jefferson Ave	open
Juicey Quartz Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	1440 Jefferson Ave	open
Ke's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1303 Jefferson Ave	open
Libby's Lemonade Stand	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		East Side	open
Manna Culinary Group	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1786 Main St	open
Mike's Lounge	Bar		1343 Jefferson Ave	open
New Pan's Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1832 Main St #2	open
Saffron Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	1786 Main St	open
Solo Eats	Quick service	Mexican	261 E Ferry St	open
Sterling Alexander, Llc Dba Em Tea Coffee Cup Caf&#233	Restaurant (service type not stated)		80 Oakgrove Ave	open
The Lounge - Canisus College	Bar		2001 Main St	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	2001 Main St	open
Trinis	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	1632 Jefferson Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	10	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	13	10	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	16	11	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1997	20	14	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1998	18	9	3	5	1	6	NAICS1997
1999	17	6	2	4	—	6	NAICS1997
2000	17	8	2	5	1	4	NAICS1997
2001	15	7	2	5	—	4	NAICS1997
2002	17	8	2	6	—	4	NAICS1997
2003	15	8	2	6	—	4	NAICS2002
2004	16	8	2	6	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	15	7	2	5	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	15	7	2	5	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	15	7	2	5	—	4	NAICS2002
2008	12	6	2	4	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	13	6	2	4	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	15	6	2	4	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	12	6	2	4	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	20	6	2	4	—	3	NAICS2012
2013	19	6	3	3	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	20	8	4	4	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	17	6	4	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	16	5	2	3	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	19	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	4	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14208. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14209	0.7 mi	9	2023
14222	1.4 mi	47	2023
14211	1.7 mi	10	2023
14214	1.8 mi	25	2023
14213	2.0 mi	32	2023
14212	2.1 mi	15	2023
14201	2.2 mi	28	2023
14204	2.3 mi	16	2023
14216	2.5 mi	64	2023
14215	2.5 mi	30	2023
14202	2.6 mi	64	2023
14206	3.1 mi	25	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.