BMIE Market 14211
Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 24,663 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,622 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 9,671 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±617 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 22,611 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 12,243 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $36,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,766 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 33.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,073 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±50 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $106,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,279 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 3.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14211 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 3.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -23.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | -33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | -44.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 11 (range 7–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 41 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 53 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 47 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 12 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14211. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 41 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 52.7 | 53 | 40% | +21.1 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 46.8 | 47 | 35% | +16.4 |
| Market Momentum Score | 12.3 | 12 | 25% | +3.1 |
Consumer Market Score: 53 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 24,663 | 85 | 40% | +34.0 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 36,300 | 4 | 40% | +1.7 |
| Households (ACS) | 9,671 | 85 | 20% | +17.0 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 47 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -16.7 | 15 | 35% | +5.3 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 4.1 | 95 | 25% | +23.7 |
| Population (ACS) | 24,663 | 85 | 20% | +17.0 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 36,300 | 4 | 20% | +0.9 |
Market Momentum Score: 12 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -23.1 | 12 | 50% | +6.0 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -16.7 | 15 | 30% | +4.5 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | -33.3 | 9 | 20% | +1.8 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (53)
By cuisine
American 9 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 7 · Asian 6 · Sandwiches 5 · Coffee 4 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 3 · Halal / kosher 3 · Indian 3 · Italian 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Middle Eastern 2 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 36 · Quick service 8 · Bar 6 · Café 4 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Delivery-focused 2 · Catering 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL Noor (Restaurant & Fried chicken) | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2159 Genesee St | open | |
| Al-Aqsa Supermarket & Restaurant Al Aqsa Restaurant Bronx | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Halal / kosher · Middle Eastern · Asian | 1350 Fillmore Ave | open |
| AppleTree Halal Restaurant & Market | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Halal / kosher · Sandwiches · Middle Eastern · Indian · Asian | 898 Genesee St | open |
| Bailey Ave Cafe and Bake Shoppe | Bakery | Bakery | 2025 Bailey Ave | open |
| Bailey N Doat Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2028 Bailey Ave | open |
| Baker Academy | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Coffee | 120 Alexander Ave | open |
| Barakah rolls house food truck | Food truck · Quick service | 171 Walden Ave | open | |
| Big Dan's Smokin' Barbecue LLC | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · American | 220 Sheridan Ave | open |
| Brothers at Northland | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 683 Northland Ave | open |
| Buffalo Soul Catering | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern | 2021 Bailey Ave | open |
| Buffalo Tandoori Restaurant Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian | 2235 Genesee St | open |
| Dairy Queen Dairy Queen | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | open | |
| E Ferry Food and Deli | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches | 1326 E Ferry St | open |
| El Gran Coqui Catering | Catering | Latin American (other) · Mexican | 1111 Walden Ave | open |
| Ferry Express 5 | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian | 1507 Fillmore Ave | open |
| G & B Fish, Shrimp And Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1532 Genesee St | open | |
| Ginny's Bar | Bar | 1149 E Ferry St | open | |
| Happy Swallow Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | German / Eastern European | 1349 Sycamore St | open |
| Ike & Bg's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern | 1646 Genesee St | open |
| Jackson's Soul Food Jackson's Soul Food | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American · Breakfast | 1392 Fillmore Ave | open |
| Jazzy's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2227 Genesee St | open | |
| Karma, Bar an Resturant. Bflo. | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | 930 Walden Ave | open | |
| Kim Express | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 1829 Genesee St | open |
| Kim's Kitchen Chinese Takeout | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 1490 Fillmore Ave | open |
| Manna Culinary Group | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 683 Northland Ave | open | |
| Master Pizza Of Buffalo Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2028 Bailey Ave | open | |
| Mattie's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern | 1412 Fillmore Ave | open |
| McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 1830 Genessee St | open |
| Mike's Texas Hots & Steak House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Hot dogs | 1343 Fillmore Ave | open |
| Ms Goodies | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern · Breakfast · American | 1836 Bailey Ave | open |
| nawabi kitchen restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian · Asian | 2235 Genesee St | open |
| New Kim Kitchen Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1490 Fillmore Ave | open | |
| Palli restaurant | Delivery-focused · Quick service | Halal / kosher | 1890 Bailey Ave | open |
| Papa Joe's Sports Bar & Grill | Bar · Casual dining | 1011 Walden Ave | open | |
| Park Vue Soul Food | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 34 S Crossman St | open |
| Pitha Ghor Cafe | Café · Juice, smoothie, tea | Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Asian | 2264 Genesee St | open |
| Pizza Inn | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 1482 Fillmore Ave | open |
| Pride Odorite Of Wny Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 64 Rapin Pl | open | |
| Pure squeeze | Café · Juice, smoothie, tea | Coffee · Juice / smoothies | 171 Walden Ave | open |
| Rfc Food Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Delivery-focused · Casual dining | American | 171 Walden Ave | open |
| Salvatores Italian Gardens | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | open | |
| Scharf Schiller Park Restaurant | Casual dining | American | 34 S Crossman St | open |
| Sherman Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · American | 819 Genesee St | open |
| Speedy Express Deli Inc. | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 1799 Genesee St | open |
| Sportsman's Inn | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 37 A St | open |
| Surety Kitchen Islands Store | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 1 Brinkman Ave | open |
| Sweet To The Belly | Bar · Café | Coffee | 1228 Walden Ave | open |
| The Juice Lounge | Bar · Juice, smoothie, tea | Juice / smoothies | 2236 Genesee St | open |
| The Louisiana Cookery | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern | 1238 Walden Ave | open |
| The Walden Pub | Bar | open | ||
| Tuscan Pizza Crust | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 2021 Bailey Ave | open |
| Wonder Hostess Thrift Store | Bakery | Bakery | 313 Fougeron St | open |
| Tea Treat, Llc | Juice, smoothie, tea | Tea / bubble tea | 130 Dutton Ave | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 34 | 18 | — | — | — | 16 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 27 | 15 | — | — | — | 12 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 35 | 21 | — | — | — | 14 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 35 | 19 | — | — | — | 16 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 30 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 14 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 29 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 11 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 28 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 11 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 9 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 9 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 28 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 9 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 25 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 9 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 23 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 8 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 7 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 22 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 7 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 6 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 7 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 17 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 5 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 6 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 6 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 5 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 5 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 7 | — | 5 | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 22 | 13 | 7 | 5 | — | 5 | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 24 | 17 | 8 | 7 | — | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 7 | — | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 6 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 17 | 13 | 5 | 8 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 6 | — | 3 | NAICS2022 |