BMIE Market 14210

Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,563 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,412 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,258 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±597 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,694 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,328 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$54,197 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,734 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,006 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±67 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$129,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,172 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	28 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14210
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+7.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+3.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	30 (range 27–34) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.76) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	66 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14210. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.76, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	55.1	55	40%	+22.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.2	57	35%	+20.0
Market Momentum Score	66.4	66	25%	+16.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,563	77	40%	+30.9
Median household income (ACS)	54,197	21	40%	+8.2
Households (ACS)	7,258	80	20%	+16.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	40	77	35%	+27.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.0	43	25%	+10.7
Population (ACS)	15,563	77	20%	+15.4
Median household income (ACS)	54,197	21	20%	+4.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	7.7	65	50%	+32.4
10-year restaurant growth	40	77	30%	+23.1
20-year restaurant growth	33.3	54	20%	+10.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (70)

By cuisine

Pizza 11 · American 10 · Coffee 8 · Italian 6 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 3 · Breakfast 3 · Asian 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Japanese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Thai 2 · BBQ 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Bar 26 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Casual dining 15 · Quick service 8 · Coffee shop 7 · Dessert 7 · Bakery 5 · Café 5 · Brewery / taproom 4 · Food truck 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
898 Lounge	Bar · Casual dining		898 Clinton St	open
99cents pizza & best wings	Quick service	Pizza · Chicken / wings	883 Clinton St	open
Artigiana	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	935 Seneca St	open
Artone's Pizza and Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	1882 Seneca St	open
Blackthorn Restaurant & Pub	Bar · Casual dining	British / Irish pub food · American	2134 Seneca St	open
Blasdell Pizza Blasdell Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	2370 Seneca St	open
Blue Table Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	799 Seneca St Ste D-1	open
Bottle Rocket Beer Reserve	Bar		2182 Seneca St	open
Brandy's II	Bar · Casual dining	Thai	896 Clinton St	open
Brandys pub	Bar		805 Elk St	open
BriarBrothers Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		50 Elk St	open
Buffalo Distilling Company	Winery / distillery / taproom		860 Seneca St	open
Buffalo's Finest Bar	Bar		2163 Seneca St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	2416 Seneca St	open
Busia's East Side Polonia Krupnik	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		97 Buffalo China Rd	open
Casa Di Francesca's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	2022 Seneca St	open
Cazanova's Takeout	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2298 Seneca St	open
Cook's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		222 Katherine St	open
Cookies & Cream Cookies & Cream	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Bakery	2114 Seneca St	open
Cracker Barrel Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	756 Seneca St	open
D.A. Eatz	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · American	2178 Seneca St	open
D.A.Taste	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	864 Seneca St	open
Daly Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		2423 Seneca St	open
Dog and Pony Saloon	Casual dining · Bar		2115 Seneca St	open
Eckl's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	703 Seneca St	open
Eckl's Restaurant Ll Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		703 Seneca St	open
Emergency Pizza	Delivery-focused	Pizza · Italian	1870 Seneca St	open
Family Thai Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Japanese · Asian	150 Babcock St	open
Flying Bison Brewing Co	Brewery / taproom		840 Seneca St	open
Food Truck Tuesdays at Larkin Square	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Caribbean · BBQ	745 Seneca St	open
Goodspeed's Beverage Center	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom		2202 Seneca St	open
Gulino's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2298 Seneca St	open
Hong Kong Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2272 Seneca St	open
Hopper's Rush Inn	Bar		2104 Seneca St	open
Hydraulic Hearth	Bar · Casual dining	Pizza	716 Swan St	open
Kings Court Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		1994 Seneca St	open
Kornerstone Cafe Larkin	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	701 Seneca St	open
Larkin Street Cafe	Café · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Coffee · Sandwiches · American	701 Seneca St #215	open
Leo's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2077 Seneca St	open
Magic Bear Beer Cellar	Bar		799 Seneca St Ste B	open
McCormick's Pub	Casual dining · Bar		131 Van Rensselaer St	open
Metro Pizza Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	920 Clinton St	open
Mr. Sports All Star Bar	Bar · Casual dining		2340 Seneca St	open
Olmsted Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	567 Exchange St	open
Paula's Donuts Paula's Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	872 Seneca St	open
Pdi Cone - Dutch Treat LLC	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	69 Leddy St	open
Pizza Crust	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2077 Seneca St	open
Polish Villa II Food Truck	Food truck			open
Public Espresso + Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	2178 Seneca St	open
Reserve Steakhouse by Chef Darian	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	703 Seneca St	open
Ricota's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	206 Elk St #2	open
Sad Boys Brewing	Brewery / taproom		567 Exchange St Ste 1	open
Salty Dog "Sky Room" Saloon	Bar		2186 Seneca St	open
Sassi Cakes	Food truck			open
Schupper House	Bar		2115 Seneca St	open
Seneca Texas Red Hots	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	2449 Seneca St	open
Smokey's Tavern	Bar	American	805 S Division St	open
South End Eatery	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	1994 Seneca St	open
Southside Social & Athletic Club	Bar		444 Elk St	open
Swan Street Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	700 Swan St	open
Swiezy Distilling Co.	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
The Riverfield 865	Casual dining · Bar		865 Elk St	open
Tilly's Tavern	Bar		692 Fulton St	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	1474 Seneca St	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Quick service · Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1989 Seneca St B Kwik	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	726 Exchange St	open
Top Hill Grill	Bar		104 Fillmore Ave	open
Tunie's Tavern	Bar		692 Fulton St	open
Undergrounds Coffee House and Roastery Undergrounds Coffee House and Roastery	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	580 South Park Ave	open
Wise Guys Pizza Buffalo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1965 Seneca St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	42	27	—	—	—	15	SIC1987
1995	38	26	—	—	—	12	SIC1987
1996	41	24	—	—	—	17	SIC1987
1997	38	24	—	—	—	14	SIC1987
1998	35	22	7	11	3	12	NAICS1997
1999	40	22	6	12	3	16	NAICS1997
2000	30	18	4	12	1	10	NAICS1997
2001	30	19	4	12	2	10	NAICS1997
2002	33	20	4	15	1	11	NAICS1997
2003	35	21	2	17	1	12	NAICS2002
2004	36	21	3	17	1	12	NAICS2002
2005	35	21	4	15	1	13	NAICS2002
2006	34	21	5	15	1	12	NAICS2002
2007	27	16	6	10	—	11	NAICS2002
2008	25	16	6	10	—	9	NAICS2007
2009	28	18	7	11	—	10	NAICS2007
2010	25	17	5	12	—	8	NAICS2007
2011	29	21	9	12	—	8	NAICS2007
2012	29	19	5	14	—	9	NAICS2012
2013	32	20	5	14	—	10	NAICS2012
2014	26	19	3	14	1	5	NAICS2012
2015	25	18	4	13	—	5	NAICS2012
2016	25	20	3	15	1	4	NAICS2012
2017	30	23	6	14	—	6	NAICS2017
2018	33	26	9	14	—	6	NAICS2017
2019	31	24	11	11	—	6	NAICS2017
2020	30	23	8	12	3	6	NAICS2017
2021	32	24	8	13	3	6	NAICS2017
2022	34	26	8	14	4	7	NAICS2022
2023	37	28	12	12	4	8	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14210. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14220	1.2 mi	29	2023
14206	1.6 mi	25	2023
14203	1.8 mi	45	2023
14204	2.1 mi	16	2023
14212	2.3 mi	15	2023
14202	2.8 mi	64	2023
14218	3.0 mi	19	2023
14211	3.1 mi	10	2023
14208	3.8 mi	3	2023
14201	3.8 mi	28	2023
14209	4.0 mi	9	2023
14227	4.4 mi	18	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.