BMIE Market 14227

Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	20,621 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,153 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,979 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±516 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	23,426 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,219 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$68,928 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,244 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,109 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±35 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$208,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,313 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	8.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14227
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-28.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-28.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 14–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.29) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	49 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	13 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14227. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.29, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.0	68	40%	+27.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	48.8	49	35%	+17.1
Market Momentum Score	13.5	13	25%	+3.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	20,621	82	40%	+32.8
Median household income (ACS)	68,928	45	40%	+18.1
Households (ACS)	9,979	86	20%	+17.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	35%	+4.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.7	77	25%	+19.3
Population (ACS)	20,621	82	20%	+16.4
Median household income (ACS)	68,928	45	20%	+9.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 13 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	50%	+7.9
10-year restaurant growth	-25	12	30%	+3.5
20-year restaurant growth	-28	10	20%	+2.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (43)

By cuisine

Pizza 8 · American 7 · Italian 5 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 4 · Burgers 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Caribbean 1 · Chinese 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 29 · Quick service 7 · Bar 6 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
2400 Clinton Street Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2400 Clinton St	open
Bellevue Hotel	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	544 Como Park Blvd	open
Bobby J's Italian American Grille	Casual dining · Bar	Italian · American	204 Como Park Blvd	open
Boozenarczyks Neon Moon Saloon	Bar		26 Jane Dr	open
Center Court Sports	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2912 William St	open
Checkers Checkers and Rally's	Quick service	Burgers · Hot dogs	2563 Union Road Cheektowaga, NY	open
Chick-N-Pizza Works - Cheektowaga	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2940 Union Rd	open
Costanzo's Bakery	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	30 Innsbruck Dr	open
Cruisers Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1061 Harlem Rd	open
Darren's Basement Bar	Bar		230 Barbados Dr	open
Fontana's Grove	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American · Sandwiches	2299 Clinton St	open
Fowler's Chocolates Fowler's Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	2563 Union Rd	open
French Road DQ Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	465 French Rd	open
Friendly's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2760 Union Rd	open
Good Neighbor Flavor Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	2789 Union Rd	open
H & R Strom, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2595 Union Rd	open
IV Stallions Sports Bar	Bar		2912 William St	open
JJ's Texas Hots	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2984 Union Rd	open
Kiosko Latino	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican · Caribbean	142 French Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2567 Union Rd	open
My Corner Pub Llc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		20 Losson Rd Ste 215	open
Papa's Pizza Oven Cheektowaga Papa’s Pizza Oven	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Pizza · Italian	2990 Union Rd	open
Pepperidge Farm	Bakery	Bakery	3215 Broadway St	open
Pham's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	2940 Union Rd	open
Polish Villa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	2954 Union Rd	open
Polish Villa Part Ii	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1085 Harlem Rd	open
Poplar Pizza WNY	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2912 William St	open
Queen City Coffee House and Eatery	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	2875 Union Rd	open
RJ's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	142 French Rd	open
Rock Burger Cheektowaga Rock Burger USA - Cheektowaga 2810 Union rd	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	2810 Union Rd	open
Roz's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	47 Kelly Dr	open
Sandie's Shady Lounge	Bar		193 Whitney Pl	open
Shebeen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2641 Broadway St	open
Star Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	899 French Rd	open
Sweet World Cafe	Dessert · Café	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	1060 Harlem Rd	open
The Bayou	Restaurant (service type not stated)		142 French Rd	open
Tim Hortons	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Café	Coffee	3941 Broadway	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	2595 Union Rd	open
Tony's Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2770 Union Rd	open
Torella's Chicken and Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2810 Union Rd	open
Wahl's Candies	Dessert	Dessert	130 Losson Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	2789 Union Rd	closed
Subway Subway	Quick service · Fast casual	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	1050 Harlem Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	33	25	—	—	—	8	SIC1987
1995	33	25	—	—	—	8	SIC1987
1996	37	28	—	—	—	9	SIC1987
1997	35	26	—	—	—	9	SIC1987
1998	33	22	10	11	1	8	NAICS1997
1999	34	22	10	11	1	9	NAICS1997
2000	33	20	9	10	1	9	NAICS1997
2001	31	18	9	8	1	10	NAICS1997
2002	34	25	12	12	1	6	NAICS1997
2003	35	25	10	13	2	6	NAICS2002
2004	33	24	10	12	2	6	NAICS2002
2005	35	25	11	12	2	5	NAICS2002
2006	35	24	10	12	2	5	NAICS2002
2007	33	24	13	9	2	3	NAICS2002
2008	33	23	11	10	2	3	NAICS2007
2009	31	22	11	9	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	30	21	11	8	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	28	21	13	7	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	29	23	9	12	2	2	NAICS2012
2013	30	24	9	14	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	28	23	9	13	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	23	18	6	11	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	23	19	9	8	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	25	21	9	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	26	21	8	10	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	28	21	8	10	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	23	19	8	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	23	19	8	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	25	21	8	11	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	23	18	7	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14227. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14043	2.4 mi	81	2023
14225	3.1 mi	97	2023
14224	3.2 mi	56	2023
14206	3.2 mi	25	2023
14212	3.8 mi	15	2023
14211	4.0 mi	10	2023
14210	4.4 mi	28	2023
14220	4.6 mi	29	2023
14215	4.7 mi	30	2023
14026	5.0 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.