BMIE Market 14206
Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 21,631 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,439 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 9,320 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±481 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 20,751 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 10,885 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $50,450 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,665 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 38.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $908 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±35 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $125,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,209 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 5.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 25 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14206 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 11.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | -19.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | -10.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +4.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | -32.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 27 (range 20–33) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.09) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 42 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 56 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 42 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 20 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14206. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.09, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 42 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 56.1 | 56 | 40% | +22.4 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 42.4 | 42 | 35% | +14.9 |
| Market Momentum Score | 19.5 | 20 | 25% | +4.9 |
Consumer Market Score: 56 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 21,631 | 83 | 40% | +33.1 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 50,450 | 15 | 40% | +6.1 |
| Households (ACS) | 9,320 | 84 | 20% | +16.8 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 42 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | -10.7 | 18 | 35% | +6.3 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 11.6 | 66 | 25% | +16.6 |
| Population (ACS) | 21,631 | 83 | 20% | +16.5 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 50,450 | 15 | 20% | +3.1 |
Market Momentum Score: 20 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | -19.4 | 14 | 50% | +6.8 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | -10.7 | 18 | 30% | +5.4 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 4.2 | 37 | 20% | +7.4 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (96)
By cuisine
American 18 · Pizza 11 · Dessert 9 · Bakery 7 · Italian 7 · Coffee 6 · Sandwiches 5 · German / Eastern European 4 · Halal / kosher 4 · Middle Eastern 4 · Burgers 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Seafood 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Indian 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 49 · Bar 24 · Casual dining 15 · Dessert 12 · Quick service 12 · Bakery 9 · Specialty food shop 5 · Café 4 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Guys Pizza and Gyro | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 2405 William St | open |
| A-1 Vending | Quick service | 1500 Clinton St | open | |
| Afghan Kabab House and NY Style Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern · Pizza | 397 Jefferson Ave | open |
| Alibaba Kebab Alibaba-Kebab.com | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Halal / kosher · Mediterranean · Indian | 900 William St | open |
| Ang's Lunch Car | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 1501 Clinton St | open |
| Arty's | Casual dining · Bar | German / Eastern European | 508 Peckham St | open |
| As-salam Diner & Kabab House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Halal / kosher | 1389 Bailey Ave | open |
| Bootleg Bucha | Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) | 160 James E Casey Dr | open | |
| Bottom's Up | Bar · Casual dining | 1106 E Lovejoy St | open | |
| Buffalo Grill N Ale House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 603 Dingens St | open | |
| Buffalo Olde Brewery | Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar | 1221 E Lovejoy St | open | |
| Cake Crazy Bakery | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 2525 William St | open |
| Cakes By Katya | Bakery | Bakery | 1132 E Lovejoy St | open |
| Captain Smith’s Anchor Inn | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2437 William St | open | |
| Carbone's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 1126 E Lovejoy St | open |
| Cedars Bakery and Deli | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches · Middle Eastern | 111 Dingens St | open |
| Chateau Buffalo | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 1500 Clinton St | open | |
| Cinnamon Restaurant & Sweets | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Halal / kosher | 1194 E Lovejoy St | open |
| City Lounge 716 | Bar | 875 Bailey Ave | open | |
| Daren's Tavern | Bar | 514 Howard St | open | |
| Delights by D | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 42 Wabash Ave | open |
| Desi's Family Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 1527 Clinton St | open |
| Desi's Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 1816 Clinton St | open |
| Diamonds Edge Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 617 Dingens St | open | |
| Diva's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Pizza · American | 2123 Clinton St | open |
| Donut Kraze | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert · Bakery | 406 Dingens St | open |
| Father Sam's Bakery | Bakery | Bakery | 105 Msgr Valente Dr | open |
| Grandma's Perogies | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · German / Eastern European | 1550 William St | open |
| Guzzo's Hot Spot | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 1960 Clinton St | open |
| Halal Kabab House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern · Halal / kosher | 1527 Clinton St | open |
| Hbk Restaurant Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 617 Dingens St | open | |
| Hearty House | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | American | 2181 Clinton St | open |
| How Sweet It Is | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 1913 Clinton St | open |
| Istanbul King Kebab & Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Middle Eastern | 881 William St Suit 2 | open |
| Jim Mazz Auto Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1255 Bailey Ave | open | |
| Jukebox Bar & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar | American | 1738 William St | open |
| La Verdad Cafe Smok'n Soul food bbq | Café | Cajun, Creole, Southern · Coffee · BBQ | 1132 E Lovejoy St | open |
| Lovejoy Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 1212 E Lovejoy St | open |
| Lovejoy Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 1244 E Lovejoy St | open |
| Lucky's Texas Red Hots | Quick service | Hot dogs · American | 1903 Clinton St | open |
| Macho Tacos and Burger | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Burgers | 2141 Clinton St | open |
| Major Cool Off | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 361 Dingens St | open |
| Master Pizza Master Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · American | 2350 William St | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 2256 Clinton St | open |
| Mely's Take Out | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Caribbean | 74 Jones St | open |
| Michele's Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1373 Clinton St | open | |
| Mike's Homemade Candies | Dessert | Dessert | 2110 Clinton St | open |
| Neapolis Family Restaurant | Casual dining | American | 1389 Bailey Ave | open |
| Old School Tavern | Bar · Casual dining | 1263 Clinton St | open | |
| One Pie Pizza Co | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian · American | 2185 Clinton St | open |
| Pacific Cloud Seafoods | Delivery-focused | Seafood | 1500 Clinton St | open |
| Papa j’s Pizza Bar & Grill | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | Pizza | 395 Shanley St | open |
| Partners Bar & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 395 Shanley St | open | |
| Pizza By Molino's | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 1974 Clinton St | open |
| Porky's | Bar | 2028 Clinton St | open | |
| Potts Deli & Grille | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · German / Eastern European · American | 41 S Rossler Ave | open |
| Potts Express | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · German / Eastern European | 37 S Rossler Ave | open |
| Pubski Pub | Bar | 2437 William St | open | |
| Pumpernick -N- Pastry Shoppe | Bakery | Bakery | 2059 Clinton St | open |
| Ray's Lounge & Catering | Bar | 2070 Clinton St | open | |
| Rolack Seafood | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Seafood · American | 571 William St | open |
| Rooftops Bar & Grill | Casual dining · Bar | 84 Reiman St | open | |
| Roy's Place | Bar | 875 Bailey Ave | open | |
| Rumors | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1853 Clinton St | open | |
| Saddle Up Saloon | Bar | 55 Hubbard St | open | |
| SC Lounge | Bar | 2115 Clinton St | open | |
| Shady Shack Ice Cream and Grill | Dessert · Casual dining · Bar | Ice cream / frozen desserts · American | 2365 William St | open |
| Shorty's Tavern | Bar | 271 Howard St | open | |
| Snowy Owl Arts & Tea House | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Tea / bubble tea · Coffee | 1500 Clinton St | open |
| Soulfresh Salad Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1132 E Lovejoy St | open | |
| Speak Easy | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1194 E Lovejoy St | open | |
| Spirit of American-Italian Club | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian | open | |
| Stingers BBQ Rubs & Seasonings | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · American | 78 Alaska St | open |
| Sues pickles and preserves and more | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 140 Gorski St | open | |
| Sweet Bites by Michele | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Coffee | 719 Bailey Ave | open |
| Sweet Mix Buffalo | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Dessert | 1096 E Lovejoy St | open |
| TD's Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 432 Dingens St | open |
| The Clinton Lounge | Casual dining · Bar | 1895 Clinton St | open | |
| The Fire House Sports Bar & Grill | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 2141 Clinton St, 2141 Clinton St | open |
| The Hoagie Stop | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Breakfast | 2195 Clinton St | open |
| The Park Lounge | Bar | 1761 Clinton St | open | |
| The Safe House Restaurant & Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 875 Bailey Ave | open |
| The Yard Ice Cream | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 33 Spann St | open |
| Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop | Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 647 Bailey Ave | open |
| Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop | Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 1137 Bailey Ave | open |
| Tim Hortons | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Café | Coffee | 1551-Harlem Rd | open |
| Twilight Grill | Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 494 Howard St | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 360 Dingens | open |
| Wiechec's Lounge | Bar | American | 1748 Clinton St | open |
| Wildflower Meadery | Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom | 1500 Clinton St Bay 167 | open | |
| Willie's Willie's Grill & Icehouse | Bar · Casual dining | 247 Ludington St | open | |
| ZLK'S | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 603 Dingens St | open | |
| 121 Seasonings | Fast casual | Healthy / salads / bowls | 2195 Clinton St | closed |
| Club Chit Chat | Bar | 1048 Clinton St | closed | |
| Supreme Pizza Supply Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 1291 Clinton St | closed |
| Yummy Halal Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Halal / kosher | 881 William St Ste 2 | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 57 | 37 | — | — | — | 20 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 54 | 35 | — | — | — | 19 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 50 | 29 | — | — | — | 21 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 52 | 32 | — | — | — | 20 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 56 | 33 | 12 | 16 | 5 | 18 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 52 | 28 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 19 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 48 | 26 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 17 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 50 | 28 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 17 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 50 | 28 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 18 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 45 | 24 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 17 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 50 | 27 | 10 | 14 | 2 | 17 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 46 | 24 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 16 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 49 | 26 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 18 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 47 | 25 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 19 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 46 | 26 | 8 | 15 | 3 | 16 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 43 | 21 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 16 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 46 | 24 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 17 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 50 | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 20 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 53 | 31 | 15 | 13 | 3 | 18 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 50 | 28 | 12 | 13 | 3 | 17 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 51 | 32 | 13 | 16 | 3 | 14 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 43 | 31 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 8 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 39 | 27 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 9 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 46 | 33 | 16 | 15 | — | 8 | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 45 | 31 | 13 | 16 | — | 8 | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 49 | 36 | 15 | 18 | 3 | 7 | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 40 | 28 | 11 | 15 | — | 7 | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 41 | 28 | 11 | 16 | — | 8 | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 41 | 29 | 8 | 20 | — | 7 | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 38 | 25 | 5 | 19 | — | 7 | NAICS2022 |