BMIE Market 14215
Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 42,524 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,253 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 16,733 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±863 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 39,999 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 18,275 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $44,955 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,270 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 31.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $1,039 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±62 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $111,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,469 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 4.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 30 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14215 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 6.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +3.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 32 (range 27–36) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.36) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 61 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 60 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14215. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.36, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 60.9 | 61 | 40% | +24.4 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 65.5 | 66 | 35% | +22.9 |
| Market Momentum Score | 59.9 | 60 | 25% | +15.0 |
Consumer Market Score: 61 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 42,524 | 95 | 40% | +38.0 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 44,955 | 10 | 40% | +3.9 |
| Households (ACS) | 16,733 | 95 | 20% | +19.1 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 25 | 67 | 35% | +23.6 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 7.1 | 84 | 25% | +21.0 |
| Population (ACS) | 42,524 | 95 | 20% | +19.0 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 44,955 | 10 | 20% | +1.9 |
Market Momentum Score: 60 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 3.5 | 60 | 50% | +29.9 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 25 | 67 | 30% | +20.2 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 25 | 49 | 20% | +9.8 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (75)
By cuisine
American 13 · Pizza 9 · Chicken / wings 7 · Halal / kosher 7 · Coffee 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Steakhouse 6 · Asian 5 · Burgers 5 · Dessert 5 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 4 · Italian 4 · Caribbean 3 · Chinese 3 · Seafood 3 · African 2 · Indian 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Greek 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Vietnamese 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 52 · Quick service 16 · Dessert 6 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Food truck 2 · Other 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 Fast Food Restaurant | Quick service | Vietnamese · Asian | 3396 Bailey Ave | open |
| Auntie & Unc's Breakfast Lunch & Dinner | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 1358 E Delavan Ave | open |
| Aunties Breaking bread everywhere | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern | 59 Weber Ave | open |
| Babas Place | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Greek · Mediterranean · American | 3319 Bailey Ave | open |
| Bailey Avenue Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 2916 Bailey Ave | open |
| Bailey Seafood | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining | Seafood · American | 3316 Bailey Ave | open |
| Bailey's Best Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Café | Coffee | 2682 Bailey Ave | open |
| Bing's Restaurant | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Dessert | 1952 Kensington Ave | open |
| Buffalo Halal Chicken | Delivery-focused | Halal / kosher · Chicken / wings | 2682 Bailey Ave | open |
| Buffalo To Go | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ | 560 Eggert Rd | open |
| Captain of the Sea | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood · British / Irish pub food · American | 3038 Bailey Ave | open |
| Caribbean Experience | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Caribbean · American | 2897 Bailey Ave | open |
| CeoKitchen | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering | 1345 E Delavan Ave | open | |
| Checkers Checkers and Rally's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 2665 Bailey Ave | open |
| Chester's Cajun Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern · American | 301 Cleveland Dr | open |
| China Jade | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 3162 Bailey Ave | open |
| Chubbs Steak & Subs | Restaurant (service type not stated) | African · American | 2682 Bailey Ave | open |
| Dairy Queen Dairy Queen | Quick service · Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | Dairy Queen Store 3759 Harlem Rd | open |
| Derigo Sales Inc | Dessert | 3780 Harlem Rd | open | |
| Doctor Bird Inc | Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service | Sandwiches · Caribbean | 842 E Delavan Ave | open |
| E & T Venture Properties Llc. | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 301 Cleveland Dr | open | |
| Elite Bar & Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 301 Cleveland Dr | open | |
| Golden coffee and breakfast | Café · Coffee shop | Breakfast · Coffee | 3065 Bailey Ave | open |
| Gordy's Inn | Bar | 3676 Harlem Rd | open | |
| Gyro King | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mediterranean · Middle Eastern · Halal / kosher | 1493 E Delavan Ave | open |
| Habibi Halal Food | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Halal / kosher | 2682 Bailey Ave | open |
| Hunan Wok | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 3842 Harlem Rd Ste 100 | open |
| Kennedy Fried Chicken & pizza Buffalo | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings · Pizza | 1393 Kensington Ave | open |
| Kensington Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 1463 Kensington Ave | open |
| Khabar Ghor | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Halal / kosher | 3300 Bailey Ave | open |
| Krispy Krunchy Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 389 Grider St | open |
| Krispy Krunchy Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 1266 E Delavan Ave | open |
| Linda's Bean Pie Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 2516 Bailey Ave | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 3842 Harlem Rd | open |
| Louie's Texas Red Hots | Casual dining | American · Burgers | 2811 Bailey Ave # A | open |
| Lovebirds Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian · Asian | 151 Grider St | open |
| Mad Sauces Food Truck | Food truck · Quick service | Chicken / wings | open | |
| Malia's Steak Shop | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches · Steakhouse | 647 Northumberland Ave | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers | 1970 Kensington Ave | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 262 Grider St | open |
| Mighty Taco | Dessert | Dessert | 462 Grider St | open |
| Mike's Steak House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse · American | 3355 Bailey Ave | open |
| Nettes Place | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1358 E Delavan Ave | open | |
| Niagara Sushi And Ramen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese | 3300 Bailey Ave | open |
| Original Auntie Jamaican Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Caribbean | 3331 Bailey Ave | open |
| Original Steakhouse | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse | 827 E Delavan Ave | open |
| Phat Catz Restaurant & Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Cajun, Creole, Southern · American · Seafood | 965 Kensington Ave | open |
| Pizza & Chicken Delights (100% Halal ) | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Halal / kosher · Chicken / wings | 3337 Bailey Ave | open |
| Platinum's Kitchen & Katering | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 52 Dartmouth Ave | open | |
| Raymondo's Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 1580 E Delavan Ave | open |
| Sam's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 1393 Kensington Ave | open |
| Sean & Jennifer Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 1580 E Delavan Ave | open | |
| Sokal Sondha সকাল-সন্ধ্যা Hotel,Restaurant & Grocary | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3191 Bailey Ave | open | |
| SpiceBite Mexican-Desi Street Food | Food truck · Quick service | Halal / kosher | 3269 Bailey Ave | open |
| Steak-Out | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse | 1358 E Delavan Ave | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 3167 Bailey Ave | open |
| Subway | Other | Sandwiches | 462 Grider St | open |
| Sweet Lounge | Casual dining · Bar | 2 Schreck Ave | open | |
| Taste of Bengal | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian · Asian | 3065 Bailey Ave | open |
| Tastefully Baked By Shawnie | Dessert | Dessert | Commercial Kitchen | open |
| Teagues Steak Subs & More | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse · American | 1493 E Delavan Ave | open |
| Texas City Market & Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 1245 E Delavan Ave | open |
| The Fire Spot | Quick service | 3300 Bailey Ave | open | |
| The Friars Table | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Steakhouse | 301 Cleveland Dr | open |
| The Roebling Avenue Block Club | Bar | open | ||
| Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop | Coffee shop · Quick service · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 1405 Kensington Ave | open |
| Tim Hortons Tim Hortons | Coffee shop · Café | Coffee | 397 - Cleveland Dr | open |
| Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop | Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 462 Grider St | open |
| Tony's Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 3680 Harlem Rd | open |
| united deli United Supermarkets: Cordell | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 161 Deerfield Ave | open |
| Uptown Theatre Subway, Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3167 Bailey Ave | open | |
| West African International Market & Take Out Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | African | 3125 Bailey Ave | open |
| Xing Wok | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese | 3233 Bailey Ave | open |
| Yum Yum Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 1393 Kensington Ave | open |
| ZamZam Burgers and Fried Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · Halal / kosher · Chicken / wings | 3331 Bailey Ave | open |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 46 | 30 | — | — | — | 16 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 44 | 34 | — | — | — | 10 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 43 | 27 | — | — | — | 16 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 38 | 25 | — | — | — | 13 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 32 | 23 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 9 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 31 | 24 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 7 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 27 | 21 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 6 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 29 | 22 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 7 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 28 | 21 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 6 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 30 | 24 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 31 | 24 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 31 | 24 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 27 | 21 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 33 | 25 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 3 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 3 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 33 | 26 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 3 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 29 | 24 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 30 | 26 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 2 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 25 | 22 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 30 | 27 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 30 | 27 | 6 | 20 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 32 | 29 | 6 | 22 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 26 | 23 | 4 | 18 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 27 | 25 | 5 | 19 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 30 | 28 | 8 | 18 | — | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 34 | 29 | 9 | 19 | — | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 36 | 30 | 7 | 20 | 3 | — | NAICS2022 |