BMIE Market 15005

Beaver County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,570 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±479 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,303 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±286 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,450 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,168 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$73,354 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,924 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$660 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±70 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$216,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±35,199 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	16.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 15005
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-16.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 10–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.34) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	51 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 15005. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.34, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	63.4	63	40%	+25.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65.7	66	35%	+23.0
Market Momentum Score	50.9	51	25%	+12.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,570	70	40%	+28.1
Median household income (ACS)	73,354	52	40%	+20.9
Households (ACS)	4,303	72	20%	+14.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	35%	+23.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.5	70	25%	+17.6
Population (ACS)	9,570	70	20%	+14.0
Median household income (ACS)	73,354	52	20%	+10.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	25	67	30%	+20.2
20-year restaurant growth	25	49	20%	+9.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

American 5 · Sandwiches 3 · Burgers 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Pizza 2 · Bakery 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Quick service 5 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 5 · Dessert 3 · Bar 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Other 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Anderson's Candies	Dessert	Dessert	1010 W State St	open
Ba'Runi Grille	Casual dining · Bar	American	3797 Duss Ave	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1690 Beaver Rd	open
China Max	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1525 Beaver Rd	open
Holman Candies	Dessert	Dessert	538 State St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	300 Ohio River Blvd	open
Meatball's Diner. Baden, Pa	Casual dining	American	302 Berry St	open
Monte Cello's of Baden Monte Cello's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	601 State St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	285 Johnson Ave Beaver	open
Punks Ice Cream Shoppe	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	898 State St	open
Speedy Café	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3801 Ohio River Blvd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	518 Bryan Ave	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1500 Economy Way	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	380 State St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1600 West State Street	open
The Beer Garden	Bar		Anthony Wayne Terrace	open
The Q Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	200 Quigley Dr	open
Walmart Deli	Specialty food shop · Bakery · Quick service	Sandwiches · Bakery	1500 Economy Way	open
Zach's Scratch-Made Kitchen LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering	American	2900 Ridge Rd Ext	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	10	8	3	4	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	10	8	3	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	8	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	12	10	3	6	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	9	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	13	12	4	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	14	12	3	8	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	13	13	4	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	11	4	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	12	11	4	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	10	3	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	10	4	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	11	3	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 15005. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
15003	3.2 mi	16	2023
15027	3.2 mi	2	2016
15042	3.4 mi	4	2021
15086	4.6 mi	11	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.