BMIE Market 15086

Allegheny County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	788 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±237 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	329 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±108 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	300 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	137 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$130,688 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±48,192 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,030 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,548 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$361,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±137,981 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 15086
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	100.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+120.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+120.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+266.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+450.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 13–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.83) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	97 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 15086. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.83, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	54.4	54	40%	+21.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.1	58	35%	+20.3
Market Momentum Score	96.5	97	25%	+24.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	788	28	40%	+11.2
Median household income (ACS)	130,688	93	40%	+37.2
Households (ACS)	329	30	20%	+5.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	120	95	35%	+33.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	139.6	3	25%	+0.7
Population (ACS)	788	28	20%	+5.6
Median household income (ACS)	130,688	93	20%	+18.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 97 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	120	98	50%	+49.0
10-year restaurant growth	120	95	30%	+28.4
20-year restaurant growth	266.7	96	20%	+19.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (13)

By cuisine

American 3 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Coffee 1 · European 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 3 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aviva Brick Oven	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	16099 Perry Hwy	open
Brush Creek Inn	Bar · Casual dining		295 Northgate Dr	open
ELIA Mediterranean Grille	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern · European	400 Warrendale Village Dr	open
Generoasta Cafe & Bistro	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	901 Warrendale Village Dr	open
House Of 1000 Beers Warrendale	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 Fowler Rd Ste 10	open
Il Pizzaiolo Warrendale	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	701 Warrendale Village Dr	open
Kelly O's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Kelly O's Diner Kelly O's Diner PGH	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	100 Fowler Rd Ste 10	open
King Cool's Cigar Bar	Bar		103 Slade Ln	open
Komatsu Mining Corp.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		40 Pennwood Pl Ste 100	open
Mitch's Barbeque Restaurant & Catering	Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	16070 Perry State Rte	open
Off The Hook Off The Hook	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · British / Irish pub food · American	908 Warrendale Village Dr	open
OZone Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		100 Fowler Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	5	3	1	2	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	5	3	1	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	5	3	1	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	5	3	1	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	4	2	1	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	4	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	5	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	5	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	6	4	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	7	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	8	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	10	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	12	8	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	11	7	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 15086. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
16066	2.4 mi	79	2023
15015	3.0 mi	—
15090	4.1 mi	67	2023
15005	4.6 mi	10	2023
16046	4.8 mi	38	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.