BMIE Market 16510
Erie County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 24,198 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,220 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 10,037 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±442 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 25,625 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 10,299 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $66,450 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,511 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 42.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $859 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±60 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $170,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,127 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 33.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 42 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 16510 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 14.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +10.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +55.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 42 (range 38–47) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.49) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 63 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 16510. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.49, confidence Medium.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 67.5 | 68 | 40% | +27.0 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 57.4 | 57 | 35% | +20.1 |
| Market Momentum Score | 63.3 | 63 | 25% | +15.8 |
Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 24,198 | 85 | 40% | +33.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 66,450 | 41 | 40% | +16.5 |
| Households (ACS) | 10,037 | 86 | 20% | +17.1 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 16.7 | 60 | 35% | +21.1 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 17.4 | 45 | 25% | +11.2 |
| Population (ACS) | 24,198 | 85 | 20% | +16.9 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 66,450 | 41 | 20% | +8.3 |
Market Momentum Score: 63 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 16.7 | 75 | 50% | +37.3 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 16.7 | 60 | 30% | +18.0 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 10.5 | 40 | 20% | +8.0 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (80)
By cuisine
Pizza 19 · American 15 · Italian 9 · Sandwiches 9 · Bakery 7 · Coffee 6 · Asian 4 · Burgers 4 · Dessert 4 · Mexican 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Chinese 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 40 · Quick service 22 · Bar 15 · Bakery 9 · Casual dining 9 · Dessert 7 · Coffee shop 5 · Specialty food shop 3 · Café 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Mile Cellars | Winery / distillery / taproom | 5727 Firman Rd | open | |
| American Legion Post 700 | Bar | 1938 Buffalo Rd | open | |
| Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 4002 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Arby's | Quick service | 4310 Buffalo Rd | open | |
| Arnone's Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches · Italian | 3342 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Art's Bakery II | Bakery | Bakery | 4625 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Barbato's Italian Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 3512 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Better Baked Foods of Erie | Bakery | Bakery | 2200 E 38th St | open |
| Bigfoot's Beer Shack | Bar | 1904 E 38th St | open | |
| Bogeys | Bar | 2105 Buffalo Rd | open | |
| Burger King Burger King | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · Sandwiches · American | 4405 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Bush's | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 3799 Shannon Rd | open |
| C Y S Club | Bar | 1602 E 38th St | open | |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 4165 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Chopstix Asian Cuisine East Ichiban Buffet | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Asian | 4041 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Cicis Erie | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 4045 Buffalo Rd Unit 33 34 | open |
| Coney Island Lunch | Casual dining | American · Hot dogs | 3015 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Country Pride Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other | Sandwiches · Pizza · Breakfast · American | 4050 Depot Road | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 3303 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Donatos Pizza Donatos Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 4829 Buffalo Road | open |
| Dunkin' Dunkin' | Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 4007 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Dynamite Pizza Shop | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3206 Buffalo Rd | open | |
| El Canelo Mexican Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other) | 4459 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Erie Brewing Company | Brewery / taproom · Bar | Pizza | 6005 Knowledge Pkwy | open |
| F & B Bar-B-Que | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | BBQ | 2815 Pearl Ave | open |
| Fine Restaurant & Bar | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian · Asian | 2330 E 38th St | open |
| FooFoo | Coffee shop | Coffee | 3304 Saltsman Rd | open |
| GameDay Pub & Grill | Bar · Casual dining | 4237 Alan Dr | open | |
| Hungry Howie's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 5086 Station Rd | open |
| Imperial Palace | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 4646 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Jade Garden | Chinese Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 2034 E 38th St | open |
| Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs | Quick service · Specialty food shop | Sandwiches | 4005 Buffalo Road | open |
| Jmk S Team Llc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4045 Buffalo Rd | open | |
| Johns Wildwood Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 6005 Knowledge Pkwy | open |
| JTM Foods JJ's Bakery | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Bakery | 2126 E 33rd St | open |
| Kegler's Lounge | Casual dining · Bar | 4110 Buffalo Rd | open | |
| KFC KFC | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chicken / wings | 4410 Buffalo Rd | open |
| La Esquina Boricua | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | Latin American (other) | 2233 E 18th St | open |
| Lil Wagon | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · Sandwiches | 1 Everywhere man ct | open |
| Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 4490 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 1509 E 38th St | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 4316 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Midway Inn Midway Inn | Bar | 4801 Buffalo Rd | open | |
| My Dad's Pizza & Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian | 4535 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Nunzi's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Burgers · Pizza | 2330 E 38th St | open |
| Panera Bread Panera Bread | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee | 4299 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 1713 east 38th street | open |
| Passalinqua's Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 3515 McClelland Ave | open |
| Perkins at 4334 Buffalo Road Erie, PA Perkins | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 4334 Buffalo Road | open |
| Perkins Restaurant and Bakery | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery | Bakery · American | 4334 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Pizza Hut Pizza Hut | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 4402 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Pizza Hut Express Pizza Hut | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 4050 Depot Rd | open |
| Ponderosa Steak House | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 4444 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Prime Services | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 3799 Shannon Rd | open | |
| Rosco's Sports Bar and Grill | Bar · Casual dining | 4646 Buffalo Rd | open | |
| Russ' Dinor | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) | American | 2902 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Smiley's Ice Cream | Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Ice cream / frozen desserts | 1924 Water St | open |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 4175 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Stefanelli's Candies | Dessert | Dessert | 4466 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 1501 E 38th St | open |
| Subway | Quick service | 4415 Buffalo Rd | open | |
| Subway Subway | Quick service | Sandwiches | 4050 Depot Rd, Travel Ctrs of America TS | open |
| Taco Bell | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 2007 E 38th Street | open |
| Taco Bell Taco Bell | Quick service | Mexican | 4225 Buffalo Rd | open |
| The Alibi | Bar | 3516 Buffalo Rd | open | |
| The Double Dipper | Dessert | Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert | 5320 Buffalo Rd | open |
| The Original Breakfast Place | Casual dining | Breakfast · American | 2340 E 38th St | open |
| The Sweet Station | Bakery | Bakery | 4728 Station Rd | open |
| Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop | Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery | Coffee · Dessert | 4444 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Tim Hortons Express | Coffee shop | Coffee | 1702 E 38th St | open |
| U Pick 6 Harbor House U Pick 6 Tap House | Bar · Casual dining | American · Pizza | 4454 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Valerio's Italian Restaurant Valerio's Italian Restaurant & Pizzeria | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Italian · Pizza | 1803 E 38th St | open |
| Valerio's Restaurant Valerio's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza · Italian | 4253 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Vintage Wood Fire BBQ Harborcreek | Restaurant (service type not stated) | American · BBQ | 4655 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Wendy's Wendy's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 4186 Buffalo Rd | open |
| White Buffalo Bar and Grille | Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | American | 3406 Buffalo Rd | open |
| Wingstop Wingstop | Quick service | 4500 Buffalo Rd, Unit 5A | open | |
| Billyums Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 1918 Buffalo Rd | closed |
| Carmen's Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 2427 Buffalo Rd | closed | |
| Patricks Family Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 4041 Buffalo Rd | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | 33 | 27 | — | — | — | 6 | SIC1987 |
| 1995 | 31 | 26 | — | — | — | 5 | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 37 | 32 | — | — | — | 5 | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 38 | 33 | — | — | — | 5 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 39 | 33 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 5 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 37 | 31 | 14 | 14 | 2 | 5 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 38 | 31 | 14 | 14 | 2 | 6 | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 37 | 30 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 6 | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 41 | 36 | 16 | 17 | 2 | 5 | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 45 | 38 | 17 | 18 | 3 | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 47 | 39 | 17 | 18 | 4 | 6 | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 44 | 36 | 16 | 17 | 3 | 6 | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 44 | 36 | 17 | 15 | 4 | 5 | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 51 | 42 | 22 | 16 | 3 | 6 | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 50 | 42 | 24 | 15 | 3 | 5 | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 51 | 43 | 23 | 15 | 4 | 5 | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 43 | 37 | 19 | 14 | 3 | 3 | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 43 | 36 | 18 | 13 | 3 | 4 | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 43 | 37 | 14 | 17 | 4 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 42 | 36 | 16 | 14 | 4 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 39 | 33 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 3 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 44 | 36 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 5 | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 42 | 34 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 5 | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 44 | 36 | 16 | 16 | 3 | 5 | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 44 | 36 | 16 | 17 | — | 5 | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 44 | 36 | 17 | 17 | — | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 42 | 36 | 16 | 17 | — | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 40 | 35 | 14 | 19 | — | 4 | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 45 | 42 | 18 | 21 | 3 | 3 | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 45 | 42 | 18 | 20 | 4 | 3 | NAICS2022 |