BMIE Market 16511

Erie County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,776 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±699 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,658 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±264 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,382 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,004 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$74,102 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,259 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$904 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±95 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$172,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,883 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	7.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 16511
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-16.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 3–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.22) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	17 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 16511. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.22, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.4	65	40%	+26.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.2	54	35%	+19.0
Market Momentum Score	17.4	17	25%	+4.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,776	73	40%	+29.3
Median household income (ACS)	74,102	54	40%	+21.5
Households (ACS)	4,658	73	20%	+14.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	35%	+5.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.3	94	25%	+23.5
Population (ACS)	11,776	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	74,102	54	20%	+10.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 17 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	50%	+7.3
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	30%	+4.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (15)

By cuisine

American 2 · Coffee 2 · Sandwiches 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Dessert 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 3 · Quick service 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Coffee in the Park	Coffee shop	Coffee	4007 Main St	open
Come&Try Homemade Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3704 E Lake Rd	open
Creeks, Bar And Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4935 E Lake Rd	open
Dabrowski's Restaurant & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	German / Eastern European · Sandwiches	4003 Main St	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	4219 Iroquois Ave	open
Flagship City Barbeque	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4415 E Lake Rd	open
Gary's Superette	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	4703 E Lake Rd	open
Irish Cousins	Bar	British / Irish pub food	3924 Main St	open
Lawrence Park Dinor	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4019 Main St	open
My Way Bar And Grill	Bar · Casual dining		2218 E Lake Rd	open
Nostrovia Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Bar		4415 E Lake Rd	open
Park Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		4205 E Lake Rd	open
Ricardo's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Steakhouse · Italian	2112 E Lake Rd	open
T K's Tavern	Bar		4820 E Lake Rd	open
The Park Coffee & Bread Co.	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	4012 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	6	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1995	13	6	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1996	12	5	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1997	13	6	—	—	—	7	SIC1987
1998	13	5	4	—	1	6	NAICS1997
1999	14	5	4	—	1	7	NAICS1997
2000	14	6	6	—	—	6	NAICS1997
2001	14	3	3	—	—	9	NAICS1997
2002	15	5	4	—	1	8	NAICS1997
2003	15	5	3	1	1	8	NAICS2002
2004	13	5	3	1	1	6	NAICS2002
2005	11	5	2	2	1	4	NAICS2002
2006	14	6	3	2	1	6	NAICS2002
2007	15	8	5	2	1	5	NAICS2002
2008	16	8	5	2	1	6	NAICS2007
2009	14	6	3	2	1	6	NAICS2007
2010	15	7	3	3	1	6	NAICS2007
2011	14	6	3	2	1	5	NAICS2007
2012	14	6	2	3	1	5	NAICS2012
2013	13	6	2	3	1	4	NAICS2012
2014	13	6	3	2	1	4	NAICS2012
2015	14	6	3	2	1	5	NAICS2012
2016	14	7	3	2	2	4	NAICS2012
2017	11	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	5	3	—	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 16511. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
16421	3.4 mi	3	2022
16563	3.6 mi	—
16503	4.0 mi	12	2023
16507	4.5 mi	8	2023
16504	4.6 mi	9	2023
16550	4.7 mi	1	2015
16510	4.8 mi	42	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.