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BMIE Market 16504

Erie County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)15,931
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,147 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households6,476
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±545 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count17,322
2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units7,159
2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income$56,622
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,748 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age36.3
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent$1,048
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±86 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value$116,400
2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,930 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area2.8 sq mi
Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants9
2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 16504
Restaurants per 10,000 residents4.0
DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year+0.0%
DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year+12.5%
DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year-25.0%
DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file+0.0%
DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 202810 (range 8–12)
FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.09) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years aheadNeeds more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score54 / 100
MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score56 / 100
MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score62 / 100
MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score40 / 100
MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

ComponentValueRankWeightAdds
Consumer Market Score56.35640%+22.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score62.46235%+21.8
Market Momentum Score40.14025%+10.0
Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

ComponentValueRankWeightAdds
Population (ACS)15,9317840%+31.0
Median household income (ACS)56,6222440%+9.6
Households (ACS)6,4767820%+15.6
Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

ComponentValueRankWeightAdds
10-year restaurant growth12.55635%+19.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)5.78925%+22.4
Population (ACS)15,9317820%+15.5
Median household income (ACS)56,6222420%+4.8
Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 40 (High confidence)

ComponentValueRankWeightAdds
5-year restaurant growth04250%+20.9
10-year restaurant growth12.55630%+16.9
20-year restaurant growth-251220%+2.3
Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (33)

By cuisine

Pizza 6 · Dessert 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Italian 3 · American 2 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Bar 12 · Quick service 7 · Dessert 6 · Casual dining 5 · Bakery 3 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

NameTypeCuisineAddressStatus
Arby'sQuick service3720 Pine Aveopen
Brooklyn Pizza LlcRestaurant (service type not stated)1301 E Grandview Blvdopen
Chippers TavernCasual dining · Bar4608 Wattsburg Rdopen
Cornerstone Bar & GrillCasual dining · Bar809 E 38th Stopen
Dairy Queen Dairy QueenQuick service · Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)Ice cream / frozen desserts · Burgers4501 Pine Aveopen
Donatos PizzaRestaurant (service type not stated)Pizza861 E 38th Stopen
GatheringsCasual dining · BarAmerican2902 Reed Stopen
Glo’s LoungeBar264 E 30th Stopen
Great Wall RestaurantRestaurant (service type not stated)Chinese · Asian1326 E Grandview Blvdopen
Larry's garageBar · Brewery / taproom1241 E Arlington Rdopen
Little Caesars Pizza Little CaesarsQuick servicePizza · Italian1332 E Grandview Blvdopen
Lucky's Bar & GrillCasual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar2802 Old French Rdopen
Lyssi's Little Misfit ChocolatesDessertDessert1271 E 30th Stopen
Mighty Fine DonutsBakery · DessertDessert · Bakery2612 Parade Stopen
Murry IncRestaurant (service type not stated)2902 Reed Stopen
Niagara CreameryDessertIce cream / frozen desserts · Dessert804 E 38th Stopen
Oakwood PizzeriaRestaurant (service type not stated)Pizza861 E 38th Stopen
Palm treeRestaurant (service type not stated)Middle Eastern · Mediterranean2702 Parade Stopen
Patti's PizzaRestaurant (service type not stated)Pizza · Italian3700 Pine Aveopen
R-BarBar1102 E 26th Stopen
Red Fox InnBar1224 E 38th Stopen
Serendipity SweetsOther · DessertIce cream / frozen desserts861 E 38th Stopen
Skyline Restaurant & PizzeriaRestaurant (service type not stated)Pizza1301 E Grandview Blvdopen
Sticks & Bricks Wood Fired PizzaQuick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)Pizza1301 E Grandview Blvdopen
Subway SubwayQuick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)Sandwiches2711 Elm St.open
Sunima Hookah Lounge & CafeBar · CaféCoffee3263 Pine Aveopen
Teresa's Italian DeliSpecialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick serviceItalian · Sandwiches810 E 38th Stopen
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake ShopCoffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · BakeryCoffee · Dessert815 E 38th Stopen
Twisted Vine Winery Erie-Elm St.Winery / distillery / taproom · BarAmerican2711 Elm Stopen
Up The Way Bar & GrillCasual dining · Bar728 E 26th Stopen
Uptown BrownsBar264 E 30th Stopen
Walmart BakeryBakeryBakery2711 Elm Stopen
Southgate PizzaRestaurant (service type not stated)Pizza1301 E Grandview Blvd Unit 2closed
Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

YearAll food serviceRestaurantsFull-serviceLimited-serviceSnack & beverageBarsIndustry codes
1994159———6SIC1987
1995148———6SIC1987
19961511———4SIC1987
19971916———3SIC1987
199820176833NAICS1997
199919166733NAICS1997
200018154743NAICS1997
200118134545NAICS1997
200219114525NAICS1997
200318124715NAICS2002
200415113624NAICS2002
20051393514NAICS2002
200615103615NAICS2002
20071661418NAICS2002
20081661326NAICS2007
20091772326NAICS2007
20101572326NAICS2007
20111672326NAICS2007
20121782426NAICS2012
20131681525NAICS2012
20141582425NAICS2012
20151582425NAICS2012
201617102535NAICS2012
2017179—346NAICS2017
2018159—344NAICS2017
2019148—344NAICS2017
2020159—444NAICS2017
20211610—444NAICS2017
2022158—5—4NAICS2022
2023179—6—5NAICS2022
U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 16504. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTADistanceRestaurantsYear
165460.4 mi—
165031.4 mi122023
165012.2 mi292023
165082.3 mi262023
165502.5 mi12015
165022.7 mi162023
165072.8 mi82023
165633.3 mi—
165093.4 mi822023
165054.1 mi602023
165114.6 mi52023
165104.8 mi422023
Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.