BMIE Market 16508

Erie County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,958 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±930 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,791 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±405 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	16,050 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,214 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$56,391 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,075 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$880 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±55 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$132,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,757 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	26 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 16508
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+13.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+30.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-13.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	24 (range 21–28) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.06) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	60 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 16508. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.06, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	55.9	56	40%	+22.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51.1	51	35%	+17.9
Market Momentum Score	60.2	60	25%	+15.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,958	77	40%	+30.7
Median household income (ACS)	56,391	24	40%	+9.5
Households (ACS)	6,791	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	13.0	57	35%	+19.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.4	45	25%	+11.1
Population (ACS)	14,958	77	20%	+15.3
Median household income (ACS)	56,391	24	20%	+4.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	8.3	66	50%	+32.8
10-year restaurant growth	13.0	57	30%	+17.1
20-year restaurant growth	30	52	20%	+10.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (60)

By cuisine

American 12 · Pizza 9 · Coffee 7 · Sandwiches 6 · Italian 5 · Asian 4 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · BBQ 3 · Chinese 3 · Caribbean 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Indian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Mexican 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · European 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Middle Eastern 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 40 · Bar 9 · Quick service 8 · Casual dining 7 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 4 · Specialty food shop 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Bakery 3 · Buffet 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
26 Reservoir	Casual dining · Bar	American	621 W 26th St	open
Alfee's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Chicken / wings	3001 Glenwood Park Ave	open
Andora's Bubble Tea Shop	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	423 W 38th St	open
Bakes and Wakes Super Secret Coffee Shop and Cereal Bar	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	664 W 26th St	open
Barbatos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1529 W 38th St	open
Bello's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2176 W 32nd St	open
Bill's Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Bakery · Juice / smoothies	1825 W 26th St #2	open
Booie's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	653 W 26th St	open
Bro Man's Birria N' Burger Joint - Erie Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Mexican · American	2614 Glenwood Park Ave	open
Chestnut Street Pub	Casual dining · Bar		362 W 31st St	open
Coffee Culture Café & Eatery	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	5761 Peach St	open
Colao's Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	2826 Plum St	open
Copollas Pizzaria - Erie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1042 W 26th St	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	3710 Peach St	open
Dee's Delicatessen	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	3049 Glenwood Park Ave #1	open
Dickey's Barbecue Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	3716 Liberty St	open
DoEat	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3206 Pittsburgh Ave	open
Early Bird Energy	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1364 W 26th St	open
Erie Curry House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	3740 Peach St	open
F&F Hibachi Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	709 W 38th St	open
Federal Hill Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	2609 US-19	open
Fortune Garden Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1210 W 26th St	open
George's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2614 Glenwood Park Ave	open
Golden Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3202 Pittsburgh Ave	open
Haggerty's Bar & Diner	Casual dining · Bar	American	1930 W 26th St	open
Happy Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1537 W 38th St	open
Hunters Inn TAVERN	Casual dining · Bar	American	1204 W 26th St	open
Integrated Foodservice Consultants Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2641 Myrtle St	open
It Takes the Cake	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Bakery · Juice / smoothies · Dessert	3018 State St	open
Jo's Brooklyn Bagel	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	833 W 38th St	open
La Cocina Coqui	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean · Latin American (other)	653 W 26th St	open
Ling Ling 2 Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1526 W 26th St Unit B	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	725 W 38th St	open
Los Primos Mexican Store & Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1962 W 26th St	open
Lucchetti's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1042 W 26th St	open
Lucky Bean	Café	Coffee	1224 W 38th St	open
Mama Mia's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1529 W 38th St	open
Maria's Tasty Delights	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1701 W 26th St	open
Marley’s Island Caribbean Style Food	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Caribbean · American	3018 State St	open
McGarrey's Oakwood Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · American	1624 W 38th St	open
Odis 12 Bar & Grille	Bar		664 W 26th St	open
Our Familys Pizza Shop Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1529 W 38th St	open
Outlaw Barbecue Revolution	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	3431 Poplar St	open
Panos Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1504 W 38th St	open
PARR BAR	Bar		2903 Raspberry St	open
Pizza Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3018 State St	open
Premium Coffee Company of Erie	Coffee shop	Coffee	1220 W 38th St	open
Pulakos 926 Chocolate	Dessert	Dessert	1301 W 26th St	open
Rack and Roll	Bar		2040 W 38th St	open
Shawarma King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Middle Eastern	1042 W 26th St	open
South Erie Turners	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2663 Peach St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1522 West 26th St Unit No. 6 D	open
Summer House Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	European	2605 Washington Ave	open
Tandoori Hut Indian Cuisine LLC.	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	2605 Washington Ave	open
Teresa's Italian Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	3203 Greengarden Blvd	open
That Place	Bar · Casual dining		1527 W 26th St	open
The Best Spudz Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	340 Metz St	open
Valerio's Italian Restaurant & Pizzeria Valerio's Italian Restaurant & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	2179 W 32nd St	open
Yum Yum's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	312 W 31st St	open
Mi Scuzi Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	2641 Myrtle St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	41	30	—	—	—	11	SIC1987
1995	38	26	—	—	—	12	SIC1987
1996	39	27	—	—	—	12	SIC1987
1997	33	23	—	—	—	10	SIC1987
1998	36	27	12	11	4	8	NAICS1997
1999	41	32	14	11	6	8	NAICS1997
2000	35	27	11	11	4	7	NAICS1997
2001	32	23	10	9	4	8	NAICS1997
2002	31	20	10	8	2	9	NAICS1997
2003	32	20	6	12	2	9	NAICS2002
2004	33	19	6	11	2	11	NAICS2002
2005	32	20	8	9	3	9	NAICS2002
2006	30	19	9	7	3	9	NAICS2002
2007	34	23	11	9	3	10	NAICS2002
2008	33	24	14	7	3	8	NAICS2007
2009	35	25	15	7	3	8	NAICS2007
2010	33	24	15	5	4	7	NAICS2007
2011	34	24	14	7	3	8	NAICS2007
2012	32	22	10	9	3	9	NAICS2012
2013	33	23	12	8	3	9	NAICS2012
2014	33	24	13	8	3	8	NAICS2012
2015	33	23	13	7	3	8	NAICS2012
2016	29	22	10	9	3	6	NAICS2012
2017	28	21	8	9	4	6	NAICS2017
2018	32	24	7	12	5	7	NAICS2017
2019	34	26	7	13	6	7	NAICS2017
2020	32	24	8	11	5	7	NAICS2017
2021	31	22	6	11	5	7	NAICS2017
2022	31	22	7	9	6	7	NAICS2022
2023	34	26	9	10	7	6	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 16508. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
16502	1.0 mi	16	2023
16501	1.6 mi	29	2023
16546	2.0 mi	—
16504	2.3 mi	9	2023
16505	2.4 mi	60	2023
16550	2.5 mi	1	2015
16503	2.6 mi	12	2023
16507	2.9 mi	8	2023
16509	3.5 mi	82	2023
16506	4.1 mi	29	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.