BMIE Market 16503

Erie County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,753 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,131 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,031 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±433 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	16,850 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,980 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$32,340 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,981 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	31.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$869 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$64,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,878 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 16503
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-7.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-29.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+9.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 5–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.60) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	38 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	16 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 16503. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.60, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 38 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	47.5	48	40%	+19.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41.3	41	35%	+14.5
Market Momentum Score	16.3	16	25%	+4.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,753	77	40%	+31.0
Median household income (ACS)	32,340	3	40%	+1.2
Households (ACS)	6,031	77	20%	+15.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	35%	+4.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.6	82	25%	+20.5
Population (ACS)	15,753	77	20%	+15.5
Median household income (ACS)	32,340	3	20%	+0.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 16 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-7.7	20	50%	+10.2
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	30%	+4.1
20-year restaurant growth	-29.4	10	20%	+2.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (40)

By cuisine

American 10 · Pizza 5 · Burgers 3 · Dessert 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Coffee 1 · Greek 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Bar 16 · Casual dining 7 · Quick service 7 · Dessert 3 · Food truck 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Annapurna Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1313 Parade St	open
Beach House Bar and Garden's	Bar		546 E 12th St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	2526 Broad St	open
Chicken Tzatziki	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1003 E 25th St	open
Clancy's Pub And Pizza	Bar	Pizza · American	901 East Ave	open
Cold Stone Creamery Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee · Dessert	209 E. 12th St	open
Denny's Ice Cream Stand	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	929 Parade St	open
Empire 13 Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	813 East Ave	open
Franciscos Mexican Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2301 Broad St	open
Jackson Koehler Eagle Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar			open
JJ's Pub	Bar		601 E 25th St	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1116 Parade St	open
Knotty Pine Tavern	Bar		1126 Buffalo Rd	open
Kramer's on the Ave	Bar		820 East Ave	open
Latino's Mexican Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1315 Parade St	open
Leader Of Men Clubhouse	Bar		602 E 24th St	open
Little Caesars Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2212 Broad St	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1025 Parade St	open
Marty's Tavern	Bar		1003 Parade St	open
Matthews Trattoria & Martini Lounge	Bar		153 E 13th St	open
Mc's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	813 East Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2529 Broad St	open
MrBeast Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Sandwiches	922 East Ave	open
New York Lunch	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	922 East Ave	open
New York Lunch	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1005 Parade St	open
Off The Wall	Bar		923 Hess Ave	open
Pete's Pub	Bar · Casual dining		613 Parade St	open
Polish Foresters	Bar · Casual dining			open
Prive’	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1137 E 11th St	open
Pulakos Chocolates Pulakos Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	2530 Parade St	open
Pulaski Club	Bar		2114 Wallace St	open
Red Hot Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	1301 Parade St	open
Tariq’s Best Philly	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2426 Parade St	open
Taste of Love	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood	901 Parade St	open
The Rathskeller Cafe	Bar · Casual dining		2306 State St	open
Three Chances	Bar		708 Payne Ave	open
Trap Shacc LLC	Food truck · Quick service	American	Buffalo Rd & Broad St	open
Trawka's Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Catering	Sandwiches	712 Payne Ave	open
Triple D's Tasty Grill	Casual dining	American	1301 Parade St	open
Zodiac Dinor	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2516 State St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	33	11	—	—	—	22	SIC1987
1995	31	12	—	—	—	19	SIC1987
1996	34	14	—	—	—	20	SIC1987
1997	33	15	—	—	—	18	SIC1987
1998	36	15	8	7	—	18	NAICS1997
1999	33	16	8	8	—	14	NAICS1997
2000	33	15	8	7	—	14	NAICS1997
2001	33	16	8	8	—	13	NAICS1997
2002	36	18	10	8	—	16	NAICS1997
2003	39	17	8	8	1	18	NAICS2002
2004	36	17	8	8	1	16	NAICS2002
2005	37	19	9	9	1	16	NAICS2002
2006	34	20	10	10	—	12	NAICS2002
2007	30	15	6	9	—	13	NAICS2002
2008	30	17	7	10	—	11	NAICS2007
2009	28	15	6	9	—	11	NAICS2007
2010	29	16	6	10	—	11	NAICS2007
2011	26	14	4	10	—	10	NAICS2007
2012	24	14	3	11	—	9	NAICS2012
2013	24	15	4	11	—	8	NAICS2012
2014	24	14	3	11	—	9	NAICS2012
2015	20	12	2	10	—	7	NAICS2012
2016	20	13	3	10	—	5	NAICS2012
2017	18	12	4	8	—	4	NAICS2017
2018	20	13	4	9	—	4	NAICS2017
2019	20	13	5	8	—	4	NAICS2017
2020	18	11	4	7	—	4	NAICS2017
2021	16	10	4	6	—	4	NAICS2017
2022	15	10	4	6	—	4	NAICS2022
2023	17	12	5	7	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 16503. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
16550	1.3 mi	1	2015
16504	1.4 mi	9	2023
16507	1.5 mi	8	2023
16501	1.5 mi	29	2023
16546	1.7 mi	—
16502	2.4 mi	16	2023
16508	2.6 mi	26	2023
16505	3.5 mi	60	2023
16563	3.9 mi	—
16511	4.0 mi	5	2023
16509	4.7 mi	82	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.