BMIE Market 16507

Erie County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,597 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±812 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,439 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±346 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,088 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,766 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$33,361 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,720 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	26.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$992 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±73 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$66,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,846 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 16507
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-27.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-27.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 4–10) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.38) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	33 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	42 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	36 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	14 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 16507. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.38, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	42.4	42	40%	+17.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	36.3	36	35%	+12.7
Market Momentum Score	13.8	14	25%	+3.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,597	69	40%	+27.4
Median household income (ACS)	33,361	3	40%	+1.3
Households (ACS)	3,439	69	20%	+13.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	35%	+3.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.3	75	25%	+18.7
Population (ACS)	8,597	69	20%	+13.7
Median household income (ACS)	33,361	3	20%	+0.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 14 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	50%	+8.9
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	30%	+2.8
20-year restaurant growth	-27.3	10	20%	+2.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (43)

By cuisine

American 9 · Pizza 3 · Seafood 3 · Breakfast 2 · Coffee 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Bar 26 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Casual dining 16 · Café 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
4/27 Convenience	Dessert		1140 E Lake Rd	open
901 Sports Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining		901 W 4th St	open
AJs Bayview Off The Hook	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		331 Cascade St	open
Bay House Oyster Bar & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	8 Sassafras Pier First Floor	open
Bayfront Lounge	Bar		802 E 6th St	open
Beer on the Bay - Erie, PA	Brewery / taproom · Bar			open
Calzone's House Of Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1164 W 6th St	open
Casablanca Hookah Lounge	Bar		1014 State St	open
Casablanca Hookah Lounge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		29 W 5th St	open
Czartoryski Cafe	Casual dining · Bar		302 Parade St	open
Dave's Diner Dave's Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	431 Peach St	open
El Amigo Mexican Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	333 State St	open
Ember Forge	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	401 State St	open
Erie Irish Festival	Bar		130 E 4th St	open
Herb & Honey Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	516 Cherry St	open
Jasmine Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	461 E 6th St	open
Jr's On The Bay/Sloppy Duck Saloon	Casual dining · Bar	American	726 W Bayfront Pkwy	open
Kern's Kafe	Café	Coffee	118 E 2nd St	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	556 W 4th St	open
Litz Enterprises Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		726 W Bayfront Pkwy	open
Make It Fabulous Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1164 W 6th St	open
MCs Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	1400 E Lake Rd	open
Oliver's Beer Garden	Bar		130 E Front St	open
Perry's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1001 W 6th St	open
Pier 6 Rooftop Bar & Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		6 Sassafras Pier Third Floor	open
Pufferbelly Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	414 French St	open
Rum Runners	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		133 E Dobbins Landing	open
Rum Runners Cove	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood · American	2 State St	open
Shoreline Bar and Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	2 Sassafras Pier	open
Shoreline Bar and Grille at the Courtyard Erie Bayfront Hotel	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar			open
Smitty's 814 Lounge	Bar		1118 E Lake Rd	open
Smugglers Wharf	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		3 State St	open
Starlite	Bar		901 W 4th St	open
Stillwater Management Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1001 W 6th St	open
Sullivan's Pub and Eatery	Bar	British / Irish pub food	301 French St	open
The Knight Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	162 W 4th St	open
The Red Bull Saloon Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	732 W 4th St	open
Three B Saloon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	732 W 4th St	open
Tickle's II Sandwich Shop	Other	Sandwiches	17 W 4th St	open
Two45 Waterfront Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Breakfast · American · Steakhouse · Seafood	55 E Bay Dr	open
U Pick 6 Tap House U Pick 6 Tap House	Bar · Casual dining		333 State St #110	open
Virgil's Plate	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1001 W 6th St	open
Woody's Backwater BARge & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		110 E Dobbins Landing	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	23	11	—	—	—	12	SIC1987
1995	25	12	—	—	—	13	SIC1987
1996	27	16	—	—	—	11	SIC1987
1997	27	17	—	—	—	10	SIC1987
1998	25	14	11	3	—	9	NAICS1997
1999	26	13	10	3	—	11	NAICS1997
2000	26	13	10	3	—	11	NAICS1997
2001	25	13	10	2	1	10	NAICS1997
2002	30	17	14	2	1	11	NAICS1997
2003	26	11	9	1	1	13	NAICS2002
2004	27	11	8	1	2	14	NAICS2002
2005	28	11	8	1	2	15	NAICS2002
2006	27	12	8	2	2	13	NAICS2002
2007	26	13	8	3	2	11	NAICS2002
2008	22	12	8	2	2	9	NAICS2007
2009	22	13	9	2	2	8	NAICS2007
2010	22	13	9	2	2	8	NAICS2007
2011	20	12	8	2	2	7	NAICS2007
2012	18	12	8	2	2	6	NAICS2012
2013	18	12	8	2	2	6	NAICS2012
2014	18	12	8	2	2	6	NAICS2012
2015	17	11	7	2	2	6	NAICS2012
2016	19	12	7	3	2	7	NAICS2012
2017	20	11	6	3	—	8	NAICS2017
2018	18	9	5	—	—	8	NAICS2017
2019	17	9	5	—	—	7	NAICS2017
2020	19	11	6	—	3	7	NAICS2017
2021	17	11	6	—	3	5	NAICS2017
2022	16	11	7	—	—	4	NAICS2022
2023	13	8	5	—	—	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 16507. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
16550	0.4 mi	1	2015
16501	1.3 mi	29	2023
16503	1.5 mi	12	2023
16502	2.2 mi	16	2023
16505	2.6 mi	60	2023
16504	2.8 mi	9	2023
16508	2.9 mi	26	2023
16546	2.9 mi	—
16511	4.5 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.