BMIE Market 16502

Erie County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,995 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,048 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,077 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±465 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	16,664 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,894 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$38,566 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,515 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	33.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$851 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±38 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$93,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,694 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 16502
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+166.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+300.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+166.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+77.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 10–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.59) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	97 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 16502. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.59, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	49.1	49	40%	+19.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69.4	69	35%	+24.3
Market Momentum Score	96.8	97	25%	+24.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,995	78	40%	+31.1
Median household income (ACS)	38,566	5	40%	+2.1
Households (ACS)	7,077	79	20%	+15.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	300	99	35%	+34.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10	72	25%	+18.1
Population (ACS)	15,995	78	20%	+15.5
Median household income (ACS)	38,566	5	20%	+1.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 97 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	166.7	98	50%	+49.1
10-year restaurant growth	300	99	30%	+29.8
20-year restaurant growth	166.7	90	20%	+18.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

Italian 6 · American 5 · Bakery 4 · Coffee 3 · Breakfast 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Caribbean 1 · European 1 · French 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Spanish / tapas 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Bar 5 · Bakery 4 · Casual dining 4 · Dessert 3 · Food truck 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
24Seveneatz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	601 Brown Ave	open
Born & Braised	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	802 W 18th St	open
Bruce's Pub And Grub	Bar · Casual dining		1002 W 8th St	open
Dinner is Served Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	334 W 8th St	open
Dunkin Donuts West 12th St	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery		open
Eljibaritofoodtrailer	Food truck		1547 W 25th St	open
Enriques Restaurant -Taqueria and Tortilleria LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1801 Liberty St	open
Fat Lenny's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2408 Peach St	open
Give A Crepe La CrepErie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · French · European	1909 Chestnut St	open
Hectors Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	802 W 18th St	open
Ilp Snack Shack	Food truck			open
International Bakery	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	610 W 18th St	open
La Chona Movil	Food truck	Mexican	1512 Poplar St	open
Labella Restaurant & Catering Services	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Healthy / salads / bowls · American	802 W 18th St	open
Lefty'S Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		1248 Brown Ave	open
Lombardo's Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		915 W 21st St	open
Lugo's Hispanic-American Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas	517 W 18th St	open
Majestic Baking Company	Bakery	Bakery	1501 Walnut St	open
Mr.hungry	Restaurant (service type not stated)		601 Brown Ave	open
Philly on the Rocks	Casual dining · Bar		401 W 18th St	open
Pineapple Eddie Southern Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · Caribbean · American	1402 W 10th St	open
Porky's Pizzeria‎	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	302 W 8th St	open
Reno's Place	Bar	Italian	502 W 18th St	open
Rory Godfrey, Financial Services Professional with Nylife Securities LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering	Italian	1518 Walnut St	open
Saint Paul's Italian Festival	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	453 W 16th St	open
St. Vincent Health Center Cafeteria	Buffet		2225 Myrtle St	open
Tipsy Bean Cafe	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	2425 Peach St	open
Trevani's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	417 W 8th St	open
Whippy Dip	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2527 Chestnut St	open
Little Anthony's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2204 Liberty St	closed
Ray's Last Stop Inc	Bar		1063 W 18th St	closed
Wagner's Tavern	Bar		1002 W 8th St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	23	9	—	—	—	14	SIC1987
1995	29	14	—	—	—	15	SIC1987
1996	28	12	—	—	—	16	SIC1987
1997	30	14	—	—	—	16	SIC1987
1998	27	11	6	4	1	15	NAICS1997
1999	23	6	3	2	1	16	NAICS1997
2000	22	5	3	1	1	16	NAICS1997
2001	20	5	3	1	1	14	NAICS1997
2002	21	8	6	1	1	13	NAICS1997
2003	19	6	4	1	1	13	NAICS2002
2004	22	7	4	3	—	15	NAICS2002
2005	24	10	6	3	1	14	NAICS2002
2006	22	8	5	2	1	13	NAICS2002
2007	22	9	5	2	2	12	NAICS2002
2008	23	9	5	2	2	13	NAICS2007
2009	19	6	3	1	2	13	NAICS2007
2010	20	7	3	2	2	13	NAICS2007
2011	17	5	2	1	2	12	NAICS2007
2012	17	4	2	1	1	12	NAICS2012
2013	15	4	2	1	1	10	NAICS2012
2014	15	6	1	4	1	8	NAICS2012
2015	14	4	1	2	1	9	NAICS2012
2016	13	3	1	1	1	9	NAICS2012
2017	15	5	—	—	—	8	NAICS2017
2018	14	6	—	3	—	5	NAICS2017
2019	13	6	—	3	—	5	NAICS2017
2020	14	7	—	4	—	5	NAICS2017
2021	14	8	—	5	—	5	NAICS2017
2022	17	8	—	5	—	7	NAICS2022
2023	23	16	—	8	7	5	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 16502. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
16501	0.9 mi	29	2023
16508	1.0 mi	26	2023
16505	1.5 mi	60	2023
16550	1.8 mi	1	2015
16507	2.2 mi	8	2023
16503	2.4 mi	12	2023
16546	2.5 mi	—
16504	2.7 mi	9	2023
16506	4.3 mi	29	2023
16509	4.5 mi	82	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.