BMIE Market 19807

New Castle County, Delaware · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,815 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±730 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,555 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±304 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,405 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,615 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$153,341 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,219 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	54.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,628 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±183 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$936,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±48,536 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	18.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 19807
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+7.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 9–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	57 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 19807. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Delaware and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 57, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.3	79	40%	+31.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.8	55	35%	+19.2
Market Momentum Score	57.2	57	25%	+14.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,815	67	40%	+26.8
Median household income (ACS)	153,341	96	40%	+38.6
Households (ACS)	3,555	69	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.2	39	25%	+9.9
Population (ACS)	7,815	67	20%	+13.4
Median household income (ACS)	153,341	96	20%	+19.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	7.1	64	50%	+32.0
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	66.7	73	20%	+14.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

Coffee 7 · American 4 · Bakery 3 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Bar 7 · Café 7 · Coffee shop 5 · Bakery 3 · Casual dining 3 · Quick service 2 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bar Reverie	Café · Bar · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	4017 Kennett Pike	open
BBC Tavern and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	4019 Kennett Pike	open
Belin House Organic CA	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		298 Buck Rd	open
Brew HaHa Brew Ha Ha	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3838 Kennett Pike	open
Buckley's Tavern	Bar · Casual dining	American	5812 Kennett Pike	open
China Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian		open
Circe Fine Foods	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		5712 Kennett Pike	open
Cosi	Other	Sandwiches	3828 Kennett Pike #A	open
Cupkates Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	4001 Kennett Pike Ste 134	open
First Watch First Watch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	300 Buckley Mill Rd	open
J's Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Jackson Inn Inc	Bar		101 N DuPont Rd	open
Juice It Smoothie & Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Juice / smoothies	3842 Kennett Pike	open
kaffé KARMA	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	342 Buckley Ml Rd	open
La Tolteca	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	304 Buckley Ml Rd	open
Mcglynn’s Pub	Bar	British / Irish pub food	320 Buckley Mill Rd	open
Montrachet Fine Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5800 Kennett Pike	open
Pizza by Elizabeths	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3801 Kennett Pike	open
Pizzeria Maki	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Pizza · Italian	4007 Kennett Pike Ste A	open
PureBread Deli PureBread Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Café	Sandwiches · Coffee	4001 Kennett Pike	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	3828 Kennett Pike Suite A	open
The Burger Bar By Wegmans	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	371 Buckley Mill Rd	open
The Copper Dram	Bar · Casual dining		3826 Kennett Pike	open
The Wilmington Inn and Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	41 Main St	open
Cromwell's American Tavern & Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3858 Kennett Pike	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	15	12	6	3	3	1	NAICS1997
1999	14	11	6	3	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	21	16	10	3	3	2	NAICS1997
2001	17	13	7	3	3	1	NAICS1997
2002	13	10	6	2	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	12	9	5	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	14	11	5	3	3	2	NAICS2002
2005	13	11	5	3	3	1	NAICS2002
2006	14	12	4	5	3	1	NAICS2002
2007	10	9	5	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	10	6	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	16	13	9	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	12	7	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	15	13	8	3	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	17	15	7	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	19	15	7	7	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	18	14	6	6	2	2	NAICS2012
2015	21	17	9	6	2	3	NAICS2012
2016	17	12	7	3	2	4	NAICS2012
2017	15	11	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	14	8	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	15	9	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	11	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	13	8	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	14	8	—	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	15	9	3	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 19807. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
19735	1.1 mi	1	1997
19710	1.6 mi	1	2013
19736	1.9 mi	1	2015
19732	2.0 mi	—
19806	3.5 mi	33	2023
19805	3.7 mi	64	2023
19803	3.8 mi	80	2023
19707	3.8 mi	32	2023
19317	4.6 mi	23	2023
19808	5.0 mi	90	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.