BMIE Market 21009

Harford County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	33,679 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,979 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,940 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±667 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	29,766 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,620 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$121,660 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,447 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,838 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±128 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$357,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,117 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	11.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	30 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21009
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+7.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+150.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+87.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	29 (range 26–33) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.27) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	91 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	78 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	69 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21009. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.27, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	90.9	91	40%	+36.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	77.6	78	35%	+27.2
Market Momentum Score	68.7	69	25%	+17.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	33,679	91	40%	+36.4
Median household income (ACS)	121,660	91	40%	+36.4
Households (ACS)	12,940	91	20%	+18.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	35%	+22.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.9	76	25%	+19.1
Population (ACS)	33,679	91	20%	+18.2
Median household income (ACS)	121,660	91	20%	+18.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	7.1	64	50%	+32.0
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	30%	+18.9
20-year restaurant growth	150	89	20%	+17.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (51)

By cuisine

American 7 · Coffee 6 · Pizza 6 · Asian 5 · Dessert 5 · Italian 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Bakery 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Seafood 4 · Chinese 3 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Sushi 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 31 · Quick service 8 · Dessert 7 · Bar 6 · Bakery 5 · Café 5 · Coffee shop 3 · Casual dining 2 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Abingdon Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	418 Constant Friendship Blvd	open
Abingdon Surgical Center Pc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3401 Box Hill Corporate Center Dr Ste 204	open
Absolute Sports Performance Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1305 Governors Ct Ste G-H	open
Bacco Italian + Wine Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	3459 Merchant Boulevard	open
Bacco Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3468 Emmorton Rd	open
Bocca	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian		open
Box Hill Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Pizza	2915 Emmorton Rd	open
Bruster's Real Ice Cream Bruster's Real Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2943 Emmorton Rd	open
Bush River Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3920 Pulaski Hwy	open
Bushmill Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		4017 Philadelphia Rd	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	408 Constant Friendship Blvd	open
Conrad's Seafood Restaurant - Abingdon Conrad's Crabs & Seafood Market -Parkville, MD	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	3414 Merchant Boulevard	open
Country Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	418 Constant Friendship Blvd	open
Crab Wreckers Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3414 Merchants Blvd	open
Dickeys Barbecue Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	3468 Emmorton Rd 70	open
Don's Dogs	Food truck	Burgers · Hot dogs		open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	3004 Emmorton Rd	open
Dustino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Breakfast	99 Box Hill South Pkwy	open
Fortunato Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3101 Emmorton Rd	open
Friendship Snowballs	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3520 Woodsdale Rd	open
Hibachi Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	3709 Pulaski Hwy	open
Jac's Crabs & Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	3706 Pulaski Hwy	open
James & Jo Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian	3709 Pulaski Hwy Ste 1	open
Jays Got Crabs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1321 Abingdon Rd	open
Jimmy John's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	3454 Emmorton Rd	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	406 Constant Friendship Blvd	open
King's Chinese Carryout	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3472 Emmorton Rd	open
KK Sweets	Bakery	Bakery	3349 Deepwell Ct	open
Lemon N Ginger Asian Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	3491 Merchants Blvd	open
Manifestation Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	3101 Emmorton Rd Ste A8	open
Market Café	Café	Coffee	21 Wegmans Blvd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	404 Constant Friendship Blvd	open
Menchies Frozen Yogurt	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3473 Merchant Blvd Ste F	open
Nash & Smashed Nash & Smashed	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	3466 Emmorton Rd	open
Ocean City Brewing Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3414 Merchants Blvd	open
Panda Express	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	403 Constant Friendship Blvd	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Sandwiches · Coffee	3412 Merchant Boulevard	open
Pizza Boli's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	3466 Emmorton Rd	open
Pizza Hut Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	403 Constant Friendship Blvd	open
Poke Bowl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Healthy / salads / bowls	3454 Emmorton Rd Ste A	open
Primavera Italian Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	3920 Pulaski Hwy	open
R-T Ranch and Backyard Party Patio	Bar	American	2967 Harrogate Way	open
Rita's Italian Ice and Frozen Custard Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	3007 Emmorton Rd	open
Rita’s of Emmorton Road MD Rita's Italian Ice	Dessert · Bar	Dessert		open
Salt Bakery & Recovery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	3434 Tarpon Way	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	403 Constant Friendship Blvd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	403 Constant Friendship Blvd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	3473 Merchants Blvd Ste E	open
Szechuan Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2931 Emmorton Rd	open
The Koehler Bar	Bar · Quick service · Café	Coffee	300 Logan Ct	open
Wendy's	Quick service		2910 Emmorton Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	16	16	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	20	20	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	11	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	14	12	2	10	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	14	11	3	8	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	15	12	3	9	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	16	14	3	10	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	17	16	3	12	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	16	15	4	9	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	19	17	4	11	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	19	17	4	10	3	1	NAICS2007
2009	21	19	4	10	5	1	NAICS2007
2010	19	17	3	11	3	1	NAICS2007
2011	20	18	4	11	3	1	NAICS2007
2012	23	21	3	15	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	27	25	4	18	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	30	28	6	17	5	—	NAICS2012
2015	30	29	5	19	5	—	NAICS2012
2016	28	26	3	17	6	1	NAICS2012
2017	29	26	3	19	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	30	28	5	18	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	32	29	4	19	6	—	NAICS2017
2020	32	29	4	18	6	—	NAICS2017
2021	32	28	5	17	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	30	27	6	17	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	33	30	7	18	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21009. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21017	2.7 mi	10	2023
21040	2.9 mi	31	2023
21085	4.2 mi	11	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.