BMIE Market 21085

Harford County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,307 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,182 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,801 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±436 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	16,171 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,552 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$113,714 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,117 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,734 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±173 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$348,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,262 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	19.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21085
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-15.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-21.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 6–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.14) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	23 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21085. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.14, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	82.6	83	40%	+33.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.8	62	35%	+21.6
Market Momentum Score	22.8	23	25%	+5.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,307	79	40%	+31.6
Median household income (ACS)	113,714	88	40%	+35.2
Households (ACS)	6,801	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-8.3	19	35%	+6.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.4	87	25%	+21.7
Population (ACS)	17,307	79	20%	+15.8
Median household income (ACS)	113,714	88	20%	+17.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 23 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-15.4	15	50%	+7.6
10-year restaurant growth	-8.3	19	30%	+5.8
20-year restaurant growth	22.2	47	20%	+9.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

Seafood 7 · American 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Peruvian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bar 4 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Casual dining 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Baldwin's Seafood Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	525 Pulaski Hwy	open
Bar-in-Back (at Midway Liquors) Midway Liquors	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		12320 Pulaski Hwy	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	998 Joppa Farm Rd	open
Briejai's Bites & Delights	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering · Bakery	Bakery	620 Towne Center Dr	open
Brockmeyer's Biergarten	Bar			open
Crabs Down under	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1907 Philadelphia Rd	open
Dienners Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1000 Joppa Farm Rd	open
Drew's Crab Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	1907 Philadelphia Rd	open
Dutch Soft Pretzels	Quick service		1000 Joppa Farm Rd	open
Ebbing Tide Crab House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1000 Joppa Farm Rd	open
HipHop Fish and Chicken Hip Hop Fish & Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Seafood · American	1012 Magnolia Rd	open
Joppa Pizza & Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	756 Towne Center Dr	open
Kreative Kitchen Llc	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1000 Joppa Farm Rd	open
La Tolteca \| Mexican La Tolteca Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1411 S Mountain Rd	open
Lagniappe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		626 Towne Center Dr Ste 100	open
Maryland Quality Produce & Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	12324 Pulaski Hwy	open
Mi Sabor Peruano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian · Latin American (other)	525 Pulaski Hwy	open
New Chinese Boys	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1020 Joppa Farm Rd	open
Primos Mexican Food	Food truck	Mexican · Latin American (other)	12320 Pulaski Hwy	open
Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	523 Pulaski Hwy	open
Rita’s of Joppatowne MD Rita's Italian Ice	Dessert · Bar	Dessert		open
Sapore Di Mare	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Seafood	504 Joppa Farm Rd	open
Seafood Festival Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1907 Philadelphia Rd	open
Snappy Tomato Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1012 Magnolia Rd	open
Snowballin', LLC	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	12420 Pulaski Hwy	open
Towne Grill & Pub	Bar · Casual dining	American	1006 Joppa Farm Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1060 Joppa Farm Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	14	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	8	5	3	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	7	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	8	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	8	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	13	11	5	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	11	9	4	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	15	12	4	6	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	19	17	9	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	16	13	5	6	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	13	12	6	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	10	5	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	10	5	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	4	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	16	15	4	7	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	15	14	4	6	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	13	12	2	6	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	15	14	4	6	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	18	17	5	8	3	1	NAICS2012
2016	20	19	5	10	3	1	NAICS2012
2017	18	17	7	5	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	13	5	4	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	15	6	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	15	6	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	12	3	6	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	11	—	5	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21085. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21156	2.8 mi	1	2016
21087	3.0 mi	4	2023
21040	4.1 mi	31	2023
21009	4.2 mi	30	2023
21162	4.6 mi	11	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.