BMIE Market 21012

Anne Arundel County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	22,570 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,634 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,275 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±531 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	21,317 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,140 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$139,432 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,730 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,166 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±111 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$563,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,393 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	27 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21012
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+107.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+35.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	34 (range 30–38) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.3 per year, r² 0.84) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	88 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	83 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21012. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.84, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	87.7	88	40%	+35.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	84.8	85	35%	+29.7
Market Momentum Score	82.6	83	25%	+20.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	22,570	83	40%	+33.4
Median household income (ACS)	139,432	95	40%	+37.9
Households (ACS)	8,275	82	20%	+16.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	107.7	94	35%	+33.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.0	65	25%	+16.2
Population (ACS)	22,570	83	20%	+16.7
Median household income (ACS)	139,432	95	20%	+19.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	28.6	83	50%	+41.3
10-year restaurant growth	107.7	94	30%	+28.3
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (47)

By cuisine

American 7 · Seafood 5 · Asian 4 · Coffee 4 · Italian 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Dessert 3 · Japanese 3 · Bakery 2 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Pizza 2 · Sushi 2 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 30 · Bar 9 · Quick service 8 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Café 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Annabel Lee Tavern, Baltimore Md	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian		open
Bay Hills Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1230 Bay Dale Dr	open
Bella Italia Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1460 Ritchie Hwy	open
Bento Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	1451 Ritchie Hwy	open
Blimpie	Quick service		588 Quaker Ridge Ct	open
Brady's Pub	Bar			open
Chick-fil-A	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		101 College Pkwy, HLSB	open
China Garden Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1278 Bay Dale Dr	open
City Dock Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	1296 Bay Dale Dr	open
Cooper's Crabs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1005 Shore Acres Rd	open
CW pies	Bakery	Bakery	205 Pauline Ct	open
Deep Creek Restaurant & Marina	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1050 Deep Creek Ave	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	963 Governor Ritchie Hwy	open
Donnelly's Dockside	Bar	Seafood · American	1050 Deep Creek Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	951 Ritchie Hwy	open
Elks Lodge Arnold MD	Bar			open
Froyo House	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1276 Bay Dale Dr	open
Head High, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1460 Ritchie Hwy Ste 112	open
Hong Kong Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1450 Ritchie Hwy	open
Lemongrass Modern Thai Cuisine Lemongrass Annapolis	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	959 Ritchie Hwy	open
Mago Vista Food Trucks	Food truck		832 Mago Vista Rd	open
Magothy Seafood Crab Deck	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	700 Mill Creek Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1464 Ritchie Hwy	open
Mike’s Monastery and Coffee Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)		867 Mago Vista Rd	open
Mother's Peninsula Grille Mother's Peninsula Grille	Bar · Casual dining	American	969 Governor Ritchie Hwy	open
Naval Bagels	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	1460 Ritchie Hwy #112	open
O'loughlin's Restaurant	Bar · Casual dining	American	1258 Bay Dale Dr	open
Oishi Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1450 Ritchie Hwy Ste 107	open
Oishi Sushi Japanese and Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	1450 Ritchie Hwy Ste 107	open
Old Barn Brewery	Brewery / taproom		301 Bay Dale Dr	open
Overlook Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		545 Bay Hills Dr	open
Pizza Boli's Pizza Boli's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1450 Ritchie Hwy	open
Pizza Of Arnold Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1450 Ritchie Hwy	open
Poke N' Ramen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Japanese · Healthy / salads / bowls · Asian	1274 Bay Dale Dr	open
Rise Up Rise Up Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1296 Bay Dale Dr	open
Senor's Chile Cantina Senor Chile Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	1264 Bay Dale Dr	open
Spizzico Italian Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	1282 Bay Dale Dr	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1451 Ritchie Hwy	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	101 College Parkway, Careers Center Room 106	open
Subway Subway	Quick service	Sandwiches	101 College Parkway, Careers Center Room 106, Anne Arundel Community College	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1450 Ritchie Hwy, Suite 105	open
Subway Restaurants	Quick service		101 College Pkwy	open
Super Polish Ice	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	301 Bay Dale Dr	open
The Crack of Dawn Saloon	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		371 River Rd	open
The Point Crab House & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood · American	700 Mill Creek Rd	open
Vivi's Chicken n' Mac - Arnold	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Chicken / wings	1272 Bay Dale Dr	open
Wild Goose Seafood Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1280 Bay Dale Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	20	20	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	20	20	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	26	25	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	24	20	10	7	3	1	NAICS1997
1999	24	20	10	8	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	22	21	11	8	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	19	19	10	8	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	21	20	7	12	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	20	18	6	11	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	18	16	6	9	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	21	19	6	10	3	1	NAICS2002
2006	22	20	8	10	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	20	17	7	10	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	17	15	7	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	17	16	8	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	17	16	7	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	16	15	8	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	15	13	7	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	15	13	6	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	16	13	6	6	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	22	18	9	8	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	24	20	9	10	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	25	22	10	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	23	21	8	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	24	21	8	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	26	23	8	11	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	31	27	9	12	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	28	23	9	10	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	33	27	9	11	7	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21012. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21405	3.1 mi	1	2013
21409	3.4 mi	19	2023
21056	3.9 mi	1	2011
21146	4.1 mi	62	2023
21402	4.2 mi	2	2016
21122	4.7 mi	82	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.