BMIE Market 21409

Anne Arundel County, Maryland · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	20,289 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,254 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,312 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±438 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	20,064 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,718 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$147,151 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,735 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,060 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±272 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$535,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±34,286 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	19 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 21409
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+5.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+46.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+850.0% DERIVED: 2004 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	21 (range 18–24) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.61) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	81 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	87 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	68 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 21409. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.61, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Maryland and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 367, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	87.0	87	40%	+34.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81.9	82	35%	+28.7
Market Momentum Score	68.4	68	25%	+17.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	20,289	82	40%	+32.7
Median household income (ACS)	147,151	96	40%	+38.3
Households (ACS)	7,312	80	20%	+16.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	46.2	79	35%	+27.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.4	75	25%	+18.7
Population (ACS)	20,289	82	20%	+16.3
Median household income (ACS)	147,151	96	20%	+19.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 68 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	5.6	62	50%	+38.7
10-year restaurant growth	46.2	79	30%	+29.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

American 9 · Dessert 6 · Sandwiches 4 · Seafood 4 · Asian 3 · Coffee 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Mexican 2 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Quick service 8 · Dessert 7 · Bar 5 · Bakery 4 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bar-b-que Of Annapolis, Lp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		200 Old Mill Bottom Rd S	open
Baskin-Robbins™ Baskin-Robbins	Dessert · Bar	Dessert	1342 Cape Saint Claire Rd	open
Blue Crab Cupcakes	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	1580 Whitehall Rd	open
Blue Rooster Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	1372 Cape Saint Claire Rd	open
Bobo-Q	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	1246 Mt Pleasant Dr	open
Broadneck Grill and Cantina	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1364 Cape St Claire Rd	open
Cantler's Riverside Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	458 Forest Beach Rd	open
Canton Gourmet Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1368 Cape St Claire Rd Ste A	open
Caroline's Gourmet Take It Away	Specialty food shop · Café · Bakery · Quick service	Sandwiches · Coffee · Bakery	1576 Whitehall Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		1342 Cape Saint Claire Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Dessert · Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies · Dessert · Coffee	1342 Cape Saint Claire Rd	open
ERIC Cantler's Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	471 Forest Beach Rd	open
Jerry's Subs and Pizza Krispy Kreme Doughnuts	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery · Dessert	Pizza · Dessert	317 Buschs Frontage Rd	open
Joy Luck IV Delivery Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Chinese	1394 Cape St Claire Rd	open
Kent Island Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	921 Preserve Dr	open
Maryland Seafood Festival	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	1100 E College Pkwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1450 Whitehall Rd	open
McGarvey's Saloon	Bar		1177 St George Dr	open
Nagoya Asian Bistro II	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	1368 Cape St Claire Rd	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1578 whitehall rd	open
Red Hot & Blue Red Hot & Blue - Dallas, Plano & Las Colinas	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	200 Old Mill Bottom Rd S	open
Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard Rita's Italian Ice & Frozen Custard	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1396 Cape St Claire Rd	open
Rita’s of Annapolis MD Rita's Italian Ice	Dessert · Bar	Dessert		open
Severn Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	1993 Baltimore Annapolis Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1334 Cape St Claire Rd	open
Tacos Friday	Food truck	Asian · Mexican		open
Taqueria el Cabrito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	317 Buschs Frontage Rd	open
The Ugly Pig	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	1841 St Margarets Rd	open
Village Inn Village Inn Wyoming MN	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	69 Old Mill Bottom Rd	open
Vizzini's Pizza and Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	1370 Cape Saint Claire Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1454 Whitehall Rd	open
Riverbay Roadhouse	Casual dining · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1374 Cape St Claire Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2004	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	5	1	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	12	4	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	12	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	13	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	13	13	6	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	11	6	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	12	6	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	13	6	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	14	7	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	15	14	7	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	17	16	8	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	18	8	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	19	18	8	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	20	20	8	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	17	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	16	7	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	19	9	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 21409. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
21402	2.6 mi	2	2016
21012	3.4 mi	27	2023
21056	4.2 mi	1	2011

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.